I always preface these articles by stating the obvious; statistics never tell the entire story. That being said, let’s take a look at some advanced statistics that tell us a little bit more about both of these teams.

We’re familiar with the names and star talent on both sides, but its time to see how the systematic approach to the game affects on-ice numbers in various situations for both of these clubs.

Most of these numbers were garnered using 5 on 5 as the base. If there is a statistic that exists outside of even strength, I’ll denote that as we move forward.

Even Strength Goals Per 60 Minutes of Play

Regular Season

Penguins: 2.84
Senators: 1.95

Playoffs

Penguins: 3.6
Senators: 3.5

The Penguins have proved they have staying power when it comes to offense. The question will be if the Senators offensive dominance can continue outside of the first round.

Even Strength Goals Against Per 60 Minutes of Play

Regular Season

Penguins: 1.96
Senators: 1.95

Playoffs:

Penguins: 2.8
Senators: 1.6

Ottawa was even better at preventing goals in the first round than they were in the regular season. The Penguins got it done throughout the year, but they heavily regressed against the speedy Islanders.

Even Strength Fenwick For Per 60 Minutes of Play

Fenwick is the sum of the following: missed shots, posts, goals scored, and saves. It tracks every attempt a team launches at the net, giving you a large idea of the territorial advantage that a team creates in addition to the rubber they throw at the net. It does not include blocked shots. The theory is that blocked shots are an intentional art and shouldn’t count in the calculation.

Regular Season:

Penguins: 40.5
Senators: 45.0

Even Strength Fenwick Against Per 60 Minutes of Play

Penguins: 40.6
Senators: 40.3

The Senators, surprisingly, threw a lot of pucks on goal in the regular season. It didn’t translate into as many goals as they’d like. Also surprising is how well the Penguins were able to hang with the defensively-vaunted Senators in the attempts against department. Craig Anderson is the difference maker for the Senators in these first few stats.

Total Hits

Regular Season

Penguins: 1229
Senators: 1307

Playoffs

Penguins: 179
Senators: 181

There’s physicality throughout the Senators lineup. This is a team that is much tougher than the last time these two teams met.

Faceoff Percentage

Playoffs

Penguins: 50.7
Senators: 48.3

Key advantage here for the Penguins. They were sub-par by their own standards at certain points against the Islanders. Dominance in the Faceoff’s will be key against a stingy Senators defense.

Home/Road Goal Scoring

Playoffs

Penguins: 12G at home, 13G on road
Senators: 9G at home, 11 G on road

Team Plus/Minus

Playoffs:

Penguins: +3
Senators: +8

Regular Season

Pittsburgh: +35
Senators: +7

One Goal Game Win Percentage

Regular Season

Penguins: .867
Senators: .407

Playoffs:

Penguins: .667
Senators: 1.00

Two Goal Game Win Percentage

Regular Season

Penguins: .867
Senators: .407

Playoffs

Penguins: .000
Senators: 1.00

Win Percentage When Outshot By Opponent

Regular Season

Penguins: .808
Senators: .500

Playoffs

Penguins: .000
Senators: 1.00

Playoff Power-Play

Penguins: 33.3
Senators: 24.0

Playoff Penalty Kill

Penguins: 90.0
Senators: 84.2

Big swing for the Penguins in the special teams department.

Regular Season Goals For Percentage

Total percentage of goals scored versus total goals during five on five play.

Penguins: 59.1
Senators: 50.0

First Period Goals For

Regular Season

Penguins: 53
Senators: 31

Playoffs

Penguins: 10
Senators: 4

First Period Goals Against

Regular Season

Pittsburgh: 30
Ottawa 33

Playoffs:

Penguins: 6
Senators: 2

Even Strength Plus/Minus Per 60 Minutes of Play

Regular Season

Penguins: .8
Senators: .2

Playoffs:

Penguins: .8
Senators: 1.9

15+ Goal Scorers

Penguins: 4 (Kunitz, Dupuis, Neal, Crosby)
Senators: 0

Even Strength Save Percentage – Team

Penguins: 93.31
Senators: 93.44

These teams stack up well on paper, but the story is going to be a bit different for the Penguins.

Expect more defensive focus from the Senators in this game. There’s likely to be less run and gun and the name of the game will be finding a way to beat Craig Anderson.