Penguins Stock Market

Using PDO as a gauge, let’s start by “buying/selling” current roster players heading into the end of the month.

Here’s a quick definition of PDO courtesy of Behind The Net

PDO is the sum of “On-Ice Shooting Percentage” and “On-Ice Save Percentage” while a player was on the ice. It regresses very heavily to the mean in the long-run: a team or player well above 1000 has generally played in good luck and should expect to drop going forward and vice-versa.”

Buy

Kris Letang: His 947 PDO is lowest on the team right now. A lot of gripes about Letang’s play have been made since his return to the lineup, but expect his goals against numbers to drop and his goals for numbers to increase. Letang hasn’t shown his best yet, but PDO tells us he hasn’t had much luck, either.

Evgeni Malkin: No surprise here. Malkin has been on the ice for plenty of goals against and not many goals for at even strength. He was dominant at times last night and his shift to set up Brian Gibbons was a thing of beauty. Geno is going to get this slump figured out here before too long, and his PDO of 966 tells us that he hasn’t been that lucky either.

Sidney Crosby: Frightening to think about, but the Captain’s PDO has dropped over the course of the month and his goals against numbers are slightly increasing. Crosby hit a bit of a dry spell after a red hot start. Expect for him to get some bounces as the team moves forward into a very rough part of the schedule. Crosby’s PDO of 976 might not seem that low, but it is when you consider he generally hovers around the 1150 marker.

Sell

Matt Niskanen: I’ve been saying this since the start of the year, but Niskanen hasn’t taken a single step back after his hot start to the year. Leading in many of the Penguins statistical categories defensively, Niskanen’s 1057 PDO tells us we can expect a slight return to the norm for him. However, if he continues to play the way he has, it shouldn’t be noticeable.

Brandon Sutter: Flat Stanley finds himself in the same category as the aforementioned Matt Nikskanen. Sutter’s leading the team in even strength goals against numbers and has start to put the puck in the net with regularity. We’ll see how he holds up despite a PDO of 1049 moving into December.

Penalties Taken / Drawn

This is always a fun stat to look at. Here we measure the team leaders in Penalties for/against so far this year. I filtered this to a minimum of 5 games played. This statistic also removes any coincidental penalties.

Penalties Taken Per 60 Minutes even strength TOI

1. Matt D’Agostini – 2.1
2. Joe Vitale – 1.1
3. Evgeni Malkin – 1.0
4. Chris Kunitz – 1.0

Penalties Drawn Per 60 Minutes even strength TOI

1. Joe Vitale – 1.8
2. Tanner Glass – 1.7
3. Evgeni Malkin – 1.5
4. Chris Kunitz – 1.2
5. Brandon Sutter – 1.2

The good news with Kunitz and Malkin’s penalties taken number is it balances out against what they’re drawing. Also make note here that seeing Sutter on this penalties drawn list is pretty reassuring. If he’s drawing calls at even strength, it’s likely against some of the opposition’s top players.

Sutter’s board play was bemoaned in the playoffs last year. While we can’t be sure if he was injured or not, seeing him draw penalties with regularity tells us he’s getting the job done in the dirty areas.

Goals For – Goals Against Per 60 Minutes even strength TOI

Let’s see where the goals are coming from for the Pittsburgh Penguins thus far this year. This stat requires a minimum five games played. It tracks goals for and goals against per 60 minutes of time that a player is on the ice at even strength.

Goals For/60

1. Chris Kunitz – 3.91
2. Sidney Crosby – 3.82
3. Brooks Orpik – 3.38
4. Pascal Dupuis – 3.37
5. Matt Niskanen – 3.19
6. Brandon Sutter – 2.64
7. Paul Martin – 2.64

Goals Against/60

1. James Neal – 4.30
2. Jussi Jokinen – 3.45
3. Evgeni Malkin – 3.34
4. Sidney Crosby – 3.12
5. Kristopher Letang – 3.02
6. Robert Bortuzzo – 2.87
7. Paul Martin – 2.64

In the goals against department, Matt Niskanen is leading the team at 1.24 goals against per 60 minutes of even strength time. That number is absurd, let alone for a defenseman. Compare that to the goals for number Niskanen has, and you can clearly see how he’s lead the team in all categories this year.

It’s disparaging to see the Penguins second line make up the top three goals against numbers. They simply need to be better defensively, we saw a bit of that last night, but you don’t want your second line in a position to have more goals scored on them than for them.

iFenwick

This statistic tracks individual attempts a player made to get the puck at the net. It’s more than shots, it’s shooting attempts that missed the net, hit the post, were saved by the goaltender. This number does not include shots blocked by a defenseman.

1. Pascal Dupuis – 69
2. Sidney Crosby – 64
3. Chris Kunitz – 56
4. Jussi Jokinen – 52
5. Evgeni Malkin – 36
6. Craig Adams – 30
7. Brandon Sutter – 29 (Leads forwards in Sh%)
8. Matt Niskanen – 29
9. Olli Maatta – 28
10. Robert Bortuzzo – 24

HART

HART = Hockey Analysis Rating Total = An all inclusive total/overall rating (0=average, >0=above average).

1. Chris Kunitz – 47.3
2. Pascal Dupuis 40.9
3. Matt Niskanen – 35.7
4. Sidney Crosby – 22.1
5. Brooks Orpik – 16.0
6. Beau Bennett – 7.4
7. Brandon Sutter – 6.9

And on the opposite end of the spectrum…

Deryk Engelland – -51.3
Kris Letang – -33.2
Evgeni Malkin – -28.2

Hits

1. Tanner Glass – 85
2. Brooks Orpik – 56
3. Chris Kunitz – 45
4. Craig Adams – 39
5. Pascal Dupuis – 37
6. Matt Niskanen – 29
7. Brandon Sutter – 28

Blocked Shots

1. Brooks Orpik – 42
2. Paul Martin – 40
3. Olli Maatta – 35
4. Matt Niskanen – 22
5. Tanner Glass – 21

Stay tuned as we continue to dissect the numbers as the Penguins move into December and a big time stretch run of formidable opponents.