Statistically, Playoffs A Near Lock For Pens
Matt Bodenschatz | Inside The Numbers
Feb 6, 08:21 AM | Hype this story!
James Mirtle posted a link to a fascinating site called Sports Club Stats last evening.
Basically, the section of interest focuses on the NHL playoff picture and each team’s probability of making the playoffs.
Interestingly, it appears as though the Penguins are almost certain to make the playoffs…at least statistically speaking.
| Percent chance the Penguins will finish in each playoff spot | ||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | Tot |
| 9 | 15 | 0 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 89 |
| Percent chance the Penguins will finish in each non-playoff spot | |||||||
| 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | Tot |
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
Based on those numbers, the Penguins average rank is 5.2, which would put them in the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference when the season ends.
The website also has a specific section for the Penguins that tracks how every NHL game played affects the team.
Currently, only six teams have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Penguins do. Of them, two — the Philadelphia Flyers (94.4%) and New Jersey Devils (90.1%) — come from the Atlantic Division, further proving the strength of the division.
The Flyers’ average seed is 4.1, while the Devils’ average seed is just ahead of the Penguins’ at 5.1.
Officially, the Penguins have an 89.2% chance of making the playoffs.
The other Atlantic Division teams aren’t in as good of a position. The New York Rangers have a 58.1% chance of making the playoffs and their average seed is 8.1, while the New York Islanders have a 28% chance and their average seed is 10.2
Of course, statistics don’t tell the entire story, they simply pick up on trends and use samples to try to predict what will happen, so nothing is for certain.
Nevertheless, It’s reassuring to see the Penguins with such strong grip on a playoff spot despite the unbelievable number of significant injuries they have endured.
Comments
DaBich
Feb 6, 08:50 AM
What an interesting article. I’m going to look at the sites you have highlighted for myself. Nice to know we have a great chance to get in!
Matt Bodenschatz
Feb 6, 09:09 AM
The sites highlighted are interesting, to say the least. There’s a lot of information there and, as someone not very mathematically inclined, I had a difficult time understanding a decent amount of it. Regardless, the information I presented is spectacular and updated regularly, making it the newest site on my daily visit list.
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