Penguins Vs. The Eastern Conference
Matt Bodenschatz | Inside The Numbers
Dec 17, 12:26 PM | Hype this story!
As you’ll see below, the Pittsburgh Penguins are hanging in there, despite losing starting goalie Marc-Andre Fleury to an ankle injury.
A big contributor to this is that their Atlantic Division rivals are tailing off just a bit. Aside from the Penguins, the only team with a winning record in the previous 10 games is the divison leading New Jersey Devils.
With one game in hand, the Philadelphia Flyers are just one point better than the Penguins. The New York Rangers are the same, and they have played the same number of games as the Penguins. And the Devils are a mere five points ahead of the flightless birds, with one more game played.
In other words, the Penguins are holding up just fine, and are poised to climb the division standings if they can continue to play consistent hockey.
In the conference, the Penguins are ranked eighth, though they aren’t far from the fourth place Boston Bruins, who have earned 39 points this season.
What this amounts to is that the Penguins are playing good enough for a playoff spot if the season ended today. But it doesn’t so the team must continue to improve and climb the standings in order to guarantee a post-season berth.
Have a look…
| Atlantic Division Standings | ||||||||||||
| GP | W | L | OT | PTS | GF | GA | H | A | Div | L 10 | Streak | |
| New Jersey | 33 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 39 | 84 | 79 | 9-5-0 | 9-7-3 | 6-6-3 | 7-2-1 | 1 W |
| Philadelphia | 31 | 16 | 12 | 3 | 35 | 97 | 90 | 7-4-3 | 9-8-0 | 6-4-1 | 4-5-1 | 3 L |
| NY Rangers | 32 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 35 | 72 | 75 | 10-7-0 | 6-6-3 | 9-4-0 | 3-5-2 | 2 L |
| Pittsburgh | 32 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 34 | 92 | 94 | 7-7-2 | 9-7-0 | 4-8-1 | 7-3-0 | 1 W |
| NY Islanders | 31 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 32 | 71 | 87 | 10-6-1 | 5-8-1 | 7-5-0 | 3-6-1 | 1 L |
| Eastern Conference Standings | ||||||||||||
| GP | W | L | OT | PTS | GF | GA | H | A | Div | L 10 | Streak | |
| Ottawa | 31 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 109 | 81 | 11-5-1 | 10-2-2 | 9-2-0 | 5-3-2 | 5 W |
| New Jersey | 33 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 39 | 84 | 79 | 9-5-0 | 9-7-3 | 6-6-3 | 7-2-1 | 1 W |
| Carolina | 33 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 37 | 84 | 79 | 8-7-1 | 9-7-2 | 7-7-0 | 4-6-0 | 1 W |
| Boston | 32 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 39 | 107 | 109 | 8-4-1 | 10-7-2 | 6-5-2 | 6-3-1 | 1 W |
| Montreal | 32 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 37 | 85 | 78 | 6-6-4 | 10-5-1 | 9-7-1 | 4-4-2 | 2 W |
| Philadelphia | 31 | 16 | 12 | 3 | 35 | 97 | 90 | 7-4-3 | 9-8-0 | 6-4-1 | 4-5-1 | 3 L |
| NY Rangers | 32 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 35 | 72 | 75 | 10-7-0 | 6-6-3 | 9-4-0 | 3-5-2 | 2 L |
| Pittsburgh | 32 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 34 | 92 | 94 | 7-7-2 | 9-7-0 | 4-8-1 | 7-3-0 | 1 W |
| Toronto | 33 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 34 | 102 | 104 | 7-6-5 | 7-7-1 | 4-6-4 | 6-3-1 | 1 L |
| Buffalo | 31 | 16 | 14 | 1 | 33 | 99 | 88 | 10-6-0 | 6-8-1 | 6-6-1 | 6-4-0 | 3 W |
| NY Islanders | 31 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 32 | 71 | 87 | 10-6-1 | 5-8-1 | 7-5-0 | 3-6-1 | 1 L |
| Florida | 33 | 15 | 16 | 2 | 32 | 83 | 89 | 8-7-1 | 7-9-1 | 6-7-1 | 5-4-1 | 1 W |
| Tampa Bay | 33 | 14 | 16 | 3 | 31 | 101 | 107 | 11-5-2 | 3-11-1 | 9-6-1 | 4-5-1 | 2 L |
| Atlanta | 32 | 14 | 17 | 1 | 29 | 86 | 112 | 6-8-0 | 8-9-1 | 7-5-0 | 3-6-1 | 4 L |
| Washington | 33 | 13 | 18 | 2 | 28 | 85 | 98 | 6-9-1 | 7-9-1 | 7-7-2 | 5-4-1 | 1 W |
Comments
Ben
Dec 17, 02:08 PM
What’s interesting is to take these numbers and project forward to 82 games. Many of the teams will go on winning or losing streaks that will fall outside what the projections predict, but most teams will probably fall fairly close. Here’s what we get:
Ottawa: 119
New Jersey: 97
Carolina: 92
Boston: 100
Montreal: 95
Philadelphia: 93
NY Rangers: 90
Buffalo: 87 (42 wins)
———————————-
Pittsburgh: 87 (41 wins)
NY Islanders: 85 (40 wins)
Toronto: 85 (35 wins)
Florida: 80
Tampa Bay: 77
Atlanta: 74
Washington: 70
Interestingly enough, if the current projections held, it would only take 87 points to get into the playoffs this year. I think it will take more than that, simply because I think some teams will tank after the trading deadline while others will get a boost, but I do think that this season it could take less than 92 points to make the playoffs.
Part of this is simply because the conference doesn’t have a punching bag this season. Last year, the Flyers were already well out of the picture by this time, and in prior seasons, it was the Pens. Other teams picked up a lot of points playing the punching bag throughout the season, and that helped boost the point levels of the successful teams. This season? Right now, the Capitals are only 6 points out of the 8th seed. The projection shows them ending only 17 points out of 8th – a big contrast to the 46 points out of 8th place the Flyers found themselves in at the end of the season last year.
Really, this season seems to be demonstrating that there is more parity in the NHL than has been seen in a long, long time. I, for one, think it’s cool that the fans of every team can still feel that their team has a chance to turn things around and make the playoffs at this point in the season.
It will be interesting to watch how things change over the next two months leading up to the trading deadline.
DaBich
Dec 18, 04:21 AM
Ben, I enjoyed reading your projections and the rest of your comments. It’s rather interesting to see the difference this season from last. So, I guess the Pens still have a chance to make it!
Matt Bodenschatz
Dec 18, 08:18 AM
Ben, great analysis. Hopefully the Penguins can pick up a few more wins the second half than the first half.
Dabich, the Pens aren’t out of it yet. In fact, there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic. But, at the same time,t here remain plenty of holes that must be patched. Sabourin playing consistently in Fleury’s absence will be a huge step.
DaBich
Dec 18, 01:14 PM
Matt, I agree. I just put myself in the frame of mind that they won’t make it. So IF they do, I’ll be happy LOL
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