Penguins Vs. The Eastern Conference
Matt Bodenschatz | Inside The Numbers
Jan 15, 08:50 AM | Hype this story!
It’s been tough sledding for the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Winning nine of the last 10 games and picking up a point in the other, the Penguins just can’t climb the standings — or gain ground on those below them, for that matter.
The New Jersey Devils have put together an impressive stretch of 10 games, going 8-2-0, to fend off the Penguins, who now are tied for first place in the Atlantic Division, but the Devils have a game in hand.
In Philadelphia, the Flyers also are on quite a tear, winning seven of their last 10 and picking up a point in two others. With two games in hand, the Flyers sit just four points behind the Penguins. Needless to say, all it will take is two wins by the Flyers to tie the Penguins.
Then there are the New York teams. Though neither is “hot,” both have played around .500 in their last 10. The Rangers have picked up nine points in their last 10 games, while the Islanders have lost just twice in regulation, picking up an additional 13 points in their last 10.
| Points In Last 10 Games | ||||
| Pittsburgh | New Jersey | Philadelphia | NY Islanders | NY Rangers |
| 19 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 9 |
In the Eastern Conference as a whole, things really are taking shape, as teams such as the Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs and Washington Capitals are beginning to fall out of contention.
Interestingly, the Buffalo Sabres have lost their last nine, and their streak began just two games before the Penguins played them in a home and home series.
Lastly, the Ottawa Senators could be in line for a slight dip in production as they try to compensate for the loss of Dany Heatley, who will be out of the lineup for at least four to six weeks. Jason Spezza also is battling an injury, but he is expected to play through it.
Now on to the numbers…
| Atlantic Division Standings | ||||||||||||
| GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | GF | GA | Home | Away | Div | L 10 | Streak | |
| New Jersey | 44 | 26 | 15 | 3 | 55 | 110 | 101 | 13-5-0 | 13-10-3 | 7-7-3 | 8-2-0 | 3 wins |
| Pittsburgh | 45 | 26 | 16 | 3 | 55 | 133 | 120 | 13-8-2 | 13-8-1 | 5-10-1 | 9-0-1 | 1 win |
| Philadelphia | 43 | 23 | 15 | 5 | 51 | 137 | 121 | 8-5-5 | 15-10-0 | 7-5-1 | 7-1-2 | 1 win |
| NY Islanders | 44 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 49 | 108 | 122 | 13-7-2 | 9-10-3 | 9-5-0 | 5-2-3 | 2 wins |
| NY Rangers | 46 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 47 | 112 | 120 | 14-10-0 | 7-10-5 | 10-6-0 | 4-5-1 | 1 loss |
| Eastern Conference Standings | ||||||||||||
| GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | GF | GA | Home | Away | Div | L 10 | Streak | |
| Ottawa | 44 | 29 | 11 | 4 | 62 | 155 | 123 | 15-7-2 | 14-4-2 | 13-2-0 | 7-3-0 | 1 loss |
| New Jersey | 44 | 26 | 15 | 3 | 55 | 110 | 101 | 13-5-0 | 13-10-3 | 7-7-3 | 8-2-0 | 3 wins |
| Carolina | 47 | 22 | 21 | 4 | 48 | 140 | 150 | 10-10-2 | 12-11-2 | 9-8-1 | 3-6-1 | 2 losses |
| Pittsburgh | 45 | 26 | 16 | 3 | 55 | 133 | 120 | 13-8-2 | 13-8-1 | 5-10-1 | 9-0-1 | 1 win |
| Montreal | 44 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 52 | 136 | 126 | 8-7-5 | 14-7-3 | 10-7-1 | 5-2-3 | 1 loss |
| Philadelphia | 43 | 23 | 15 | 5 | 51 | 137 | 121 | 8-5-5 | 15-10-0 | 7-5-1 | 7-1-2 | 1 win |
| NY Islanders | 44 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 49 | 108 | 122 | 13-7-2 | 9-10-3 | 9-5-0 | 5-2-3 | 2 wins |
| Boston | 44 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 48 | 114 | 117 | 11-8-2 | 11-10-2 | 6-7-2 | 4-6-0 | 1 win |
| NY Rangers | 46 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 47 | 112 | 120 | 14-10-0 | 7-10-5 | 10-6-0 | 4-5-1 | 1 loss |
| Atlanta | 46 | 22 | 22 | 2 | 46 | 130 | 151 | 12-11-1 | 10-11-1 | 9-7-1 | 4-5-1 | 1 win |
| Buffalo | 43 | 19 | 18 | 6 | 44 | 125 | 125 | 11-8-2 | 8-10-4 | 6-8-2 | 1-4-5 | 9 losses |
| Florida | 46 | 20 | 22 | 4 | 44 | 114 | 129 | 9-11-3 | 11-11-1 | 9-8-1 | 3-6-1 | 2 losses |
| Washington | 44 | 18 | 21 | 5 | 41 | 123 | 138 | 1-11-1 | 9-10-4 | 8-7-2 | 5-3-2 | 1 loss |
| Toronto | 45 | 16 | 21 | 8 | 40 | 124 | 149 | 8-8-5 | 8-13-3 | 4-6-4 | 2-7-1 | 5 losses |
| Tampa Bay | 45 | 17 | 23 | 5 | 39 | 132 | 154 | 12-9-2 | 5-14-3 | 10-9-1 | 2-6-2 | 1 win |
Comments
DaBich
Jan 15, 09:34 AM
Two weeks ago I was saying no way we would make the playoffs. Now I see some hope. BUT...(always that but…LOL)
I’m not getting toooo excited. I am enjoying the ride.
Matt Bodenschatz
Jan 15, 09:44 AM
Exactly, you don’t want to be too optimistic, but, at the same time, the Penguins have the second best record int he East. They didn’t get to that point by being a bad hockey team.
Ashley Gallant
Jan 15, 09:55 AM
Something I noticed is that the Penguins’ home record and away record are virtually identical. That’s good news, seeing as though a team needs to be able to win at home and on the road.
Hopefully last night’s game can spark a better divisional record…
Isn’t it nuts that 4 Atlantic teams are in the top 8, with the Rangers in the ninth spot? This could be a really interesting run to the playoffs.
Matt Bodenschatz
Jan 15, 10:16 AM
That’s for sure about the Atlantic. This is a big reason why the Penguins MUST improve their divisional record. If they can get some wins in the division, they can give themselves more of a buffer zone.
Ben S
Jan 15, 11:08 AM
Another week, another set of projections:
Ottawa: G: 44 W: 29 P: 62 -> W: 54 P: 116
New Jersey: G: 44 W: 26 P: 55 -> W: 48 P: 103
Carolina: G: 47 W: 22 P: 48 -> W: 38 P: 84
Pittsburgh: G: 45 W: 26 P: 55 -> W: 47 P: 100
Montreal: G: 44 W: 22 P: 52 -> W: 41 P: 97
Philadelphia: G: 43 W: 23 P: 51 -> W: 44 P: 97
NY Islanders: G: 44 W: 22 P: 49 -> W: 41 P: 91
Boston: G: 44 W: 22 P: 48 -> W: 41 P: 89
———————————————————————-
NY Rangers: G: 46 W: 21 P: 47 -> W: 37 P: 84
Buffalo: G: 43 W: 19 P: 44 -> W: 36 P: 84
Atlanta: G: 46 W: 22 P: 46 -> W: 39 P: 82
Florida: G: 46 W: 20 P: 44 -> W: 36 P: 78
Washington: G: 44 W: 18 P: 41 -> W: 34 P: 76
Toronto: G: 45 W: 16 P: 40 -> W: 29 P: 73
Tampa Bay: G: 45 W: 17 P: 39 -> W: 31 P: 71
What’s interesting here is that if Division Leads weren’t seeded in the top 3, Carolina would barely squeak in as the 8th seed. I am not going to say I’m opposed to seeding the division leaders automatically, but I can’t say I’m entirely in support of automatically giving them home-ice advantage, either…
Anyway, to continue some analysis, it’s worth noting that these projections are based on the entire season’s play, and not on how they’ve been playing recently.
The Penguins are clearly on fire now. While I don’t expect them to continue at a .950 point-winning rate, it’s quite possible that they’ll at least do better going forward than the 0.611 rate they’ve averaged over the entire season.
Atlanta is another case of a resurgent team. They’ve been winning more, and are only two points back from the Division-leading Hurricanes. They could still slip in to claim the 3 spot, especially with the ‘Canes getting wiped out by the flu right now.
In contrast, Buffalo is falling fast, and if the rumblings of an impending fire sale end up becoming true, they can only be expected to fall farther.
Personally, I think the Penguins can be considered strong favorites to make it to the playoffs. Here’s why:
- In order to match last season’s 105 points, they just need 50 more points in the remaining 37 games. That’s a win rate of 0.676, or the equivalent of going 25-12-0. That’s not much higher a percentage than the rate they’ve averaged over the season (0.611), and a lot lower than they’ve been winning lately.
- In order to reach the “Magic Number” of 92, which has been the Eastern Conference cutoff for the past couple of seasons, the Pens just need to get 37 points in their remaining 37 games. That’s a rate of just 0.500 for the rest of the season. That would be a significant decline, even from their season-to-date average, so I think the chances are pretty good that the Pens at least get in the top 8 in the Conference.
Home Ice is still dicey, but they’ve been getting themselves in a good position to fight for it. Certainly they’re in a better position to do so this year than last, when they were battling both the Senators and the Devils for home ice at the end of the season.
DaBich
Jan 15, 01:56 PM
Ben S ~ Love your numbers….they make me feel more optimistic for the Pens!
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