Faceoff Factor

Comments

1. DaBich

   May 7, 03:47 PM

   Interesting review, Matt. It will be fun to see how it all plays out. This team has had me excited from the beginning of the season, and it has only gotten better. I’m enjoying this ride, and hope we beat the Flyers and move on to the Stanley Cup Series.

2. Eric Politowski

   May 7, 04:24 PM

   Good preview, Matt. Can’t wait for game 1 on Friday. A win in this series could boost the Pens’ confidence even more.

3. Nathan

   May 7, 04:47 PM

   Good write-up, but,

   “The Penguins sport a talented group that has been productive of late, but that has been inconsistent from day one.”

   Does that really describe a power-play that has PP goals in 8/9 games, with 4 game winners?

4. Matt Bodenschatz

   May 7, 05:05 PM

   Nathan, throughout the season, the power play has had strong stretches and weak stretches. It’s not been horrible by any means, but there have been times when it was less than stellar. To put it simply, it has been inconsistent in the past, leading me to believe the Flyers’ power play — which has been rather steady — has the slight advantage.

5. Bruce

   May 7, 06:00 PM

   I can’t express how important I think it is for the genius to play four lines. There is no doubt that Crosby and Malkin’s line will get the bulk of the physical play. It will be a test to see if the genius will resist the urge for retribution by playing them both together or stick to the plan of wearing the flyers down by playing all four lines. So far the penguins have not played behind. So coach of the year wins the honor by the way he deals with adversity.

6. Michael

   May 8, 12:20 AM

   You give the edge to the Flyers in Power Play, but you give the edge in Penalty Killing to the Pens. This doesn’t really give me insight to who will win the special teams battle.

   You conclude that based on inconsistancy the Flyers are stronger on the PP. Okay the Pens are inconsistant, but this does not tell me who will be putting goals in the net when the refs arm goes up for a penalty. If you say the Penguins are considered to have significantly stronger PK doesn’t this equate to the Penguins having the advantage on the PP? I would expect that if the two teams have comparable PPs, but the flyers have a significantly worse PK (based on numbers), that this would give the Pens the upper hand on the PP. You are comparing PP to PP, but I am pretty sure the only thing that matters is one team’s PP vs. the other team’s PK.

7. DaBich

   May 8, 07:39 AM

   Michael, I think Matt’s crystal ball is broken, get yours out, and YOU tell us all the answers.

8. Matt Bodenschatz

   May 8, 10:59 AM

   Michael, the numbers are all in the preview. Draw from them what you will. I simply wanted to compare each area, not pull out some mathematical formula to make determinations.

9. DaBich

   May 8, 11:16 AM

   It’s called chance…

10. Head Coach Michel Therrien

    May 8, 11:28 AM

    Why we trow aroun’ all dis PP?

    PP dis, PP dat…

    I have been very busy as of late an’ dis is why my post has not be consistent. But here I am now to try an’ explain de way de Penguin will win agains’ de Flyer.

    I tink everyone here can poin’ out de strength and weakness of edder team. We look at de PP, de PK, de fi on five, de defense, de goaltender, an’ de scoring depth.

    It ultimately is a radder even match up to de discerning eye, no? However, I tink what dis team has over de Flyer right now is confidence. De player are, as de Double J say, play with no fear. We will keep coming and coming at any opponent dat stand in front of de ultimate goal.

    Dat is de beginning. Furdermore, de player are play witin de system, witin der ability and strength, and de are playing smart, physical, playoff hockey.

    Dis serie’, jus’ like any odder serie’, will come down to taking advantage of de mistake of de opponent. It’s cliche but it is true.

    But now take a look at de individual player on de team. We have de player dat are capable of breaking open a game or serie’ in a madder of secon’. I speak of de Malkin, de Crosby, de Hossa. Also, we have de goaltender in Marc-Andre dat is finally focus on proving dat he is a championship goaltender. Yes, de Flyer have de lil’ Danny Briere, de Umberger, de Richards, an’ Carter. But do any of de player strike de fear in you? Maybe de Briere on de PP (hahahaha, yes I am radder juvenile sometime) but if we play de system an’ limit mistake des are not de player dat can take der team to victory trew individual ability.

    Jus’ know dat your Penguin have confidence, de have leadership, de have de skill, grit, and now de killer instinct. Des are not all tings de have before. Dis will not be what you call de cakewalk. Der will not be de donkey ride to de finals. Der will be adversity and up and down, momentum swing and mistake along de way, but dis team can handle it. An’ by now der fan should be able to handle it as well.

    Also, do remember dat de Stevens an’ I have faceoff many time before. I know his taktiks. So, maybe de ever so gracious title I am often given is appropriate in dis case.

    An’ I say it again: Sacrifice Discipline Focus.

    System, system, system.

    I can not wait for dis to begin,
    Michel

11. DaBich

    May 8, 11:40 AM

    OK, to the two Mike’s:

    First Michael: You’re such a numbskull, coming in here trying to start chit. Matt’s preview is excellent. He presents the stats, and gives his HUMBLE OPINION and it’s all good. Then you come in here asking WHO IS GOING TO WIN? How the heck does anyone know? You want insight? Get your head out of your butt and maybe you can see straight. To put it simply, Matt is saying these two teams are so evenly matched, that even with a slight edge here or there, it’s up for grabs. So, Michael, I say to you, where is your crystal ball? Oh, Fooley Wang of knowledge, please share with us. BUT! Allow us to have our HUMBLE OPINIONS. Thanks, dude! ::eyeroll::

    To Michel: Ahhhhh.. a voice of reason. It’s good to see you again, Michel. Yes, the teams are both good. Hopefully, our guys will prevail, with the grit and determination they have being showing continuing into this series.

    As you said: Sacrifice, Discipline, Focus.

    Go Pens!

12. ceez4r

    May 8, 12:36 PM

    Not sure how you can give the edge to the Penguins with forwards. Hossa is invisible most of the time, despite the impression game 5 against the Rangers left. The Flyers scoring depth is 2nd to none in the playoffs. 7 20 goal scorers and 2 guys Umberger and Upshall who contribute on an everyday basis. The Penguins have the star talent and the two best players in the series. The Flyers bring the production from top to bottom. Our third line scores at a clip equal to or better than the Rangers first line (Thanks Wex).

13. ceez4r

    May 8, 12:57 PM

    I also want to add that Modry is healthy. He was on bereavement leave to attend the services of his father who passed away.

14. Matt Bodenschatz

    May 8, 01:03 PM

    Ceez, I definitely see where you are coming from, but suggesting Hossa has been invisible is a stretch. He’s been anything but, and has 10 points in 9 games to prove it. The man didn’t play as well offensively in the first round, but turned it on against the Rangers. With three game-breakers like the Penguins have, as I said, there is no team that can compete offensively with them — especially considering the depth that comes along with Malone, Sykora, Dupuis, Staal, etc.

    The Flyers have plenty of players who can bury the puck, but no one (aside from Briere) with a truly lethal shot. The Penguins have no fewer than three players with sniper capabilities.

    I think it’s one of those areas that could go either way and that each team’s fans will pick their own team.

    In the end, it’s going to come down to the style of play. Obviously, if the Flyers are permitted by the Pens’ defense to park in front of the net and fluster Fleury, they’ll score a lot. And if the Penguins are given any sort of shooting lanes, they’ll score a lot.

    Do you agree with my other assessments? I tend to think that, mostly, this series is pretty even, though going on regular season stats, the Penguins take the edge.

    How about a prediction?

    Please stick around throughout the series!

15. Nathan

    May 8, 02:49 PM

    ceez4r, Hossa’s been playing great two-way hockey since the trade deadline. When he’s not scoring, he is playing well above average defensive hockey.

    Matt, I’d add in Lupul with the lethal wrist shot, and Richards with the cannon from the blueline.

16. Michael

    May 8, 04:24 PM

    I think everyone misinterpreted my “crystal ball” post. I don’t expect anyone to tell me exactly what is going to happen (in my immaturity to this I respond, “duh!”) nor did I expect you to break out a TI-89 and graph the solution to the game. Like I said though I don’t think the PP vs. PP comparison is important to determining who will come out on top. I can read the PP % stats off of NHL.com. I didn’t intend for my post to totally blast this preview, in fact I agree with a lot of it. The way you did the comparisons is something that many people analysts do, however, I have just never understood why people follow that proceedure.

    But you all wanted my crystal ball, so I shall give it to you. Let me start by saying I agreed with a lot of what Matt said, however I think I come to slightly different conclusions based on that knowledge. Also, note that I am a Penguins fan, so you can attribute the bias from there.

    To me this game comes down to who has more in their pocket. Each team has a superb cast, except for maybe their defensive squads. The offensive group of the penguins, like Matt said, is beast. Philly has a tough group of defenders to battle against though (Hatcher, etc.). HOWEVER, I find that the speed of the Penguins O will out match the Flyers defense. In the majority of the playoff games, Penguins players were getting to most pucks first (Offensive and Defensive zone). It took until about game 3 against the Rangers until an opponent could match the Pens puck possession game. It is easy to say that you can find a player to match up on Crosby, but who do you find for all the other pens players?

    On the other side of the ice, I see a similar matchup with the Flyers having a slight advantage on offense versus the Penguins D. RJ Umberger tore up in every game against the pens and I expect him to do the same during the series. If you look at the Pens Defense sure it adds a lot to the Offense (Gonchar, Letang mainly), but I still think it lacks the bulk that other teams employ. For instance, Orpik, who is considered one of the tough guys, is out of position 2-3 times a game for the sole purpose of making a hit. Great for intensity, but not for strong defense.

    In the beginning, I stated that it came down to who had more in their “pocket”. This will be a four line series, and whoever can use 4 lines more efficiently will win this series. While, I cannot speak for the Flyers, I know that the Therrien had consistantly used all 4 lines in EVERY game in these playoffs. Ruutu (switches between 3rd and 4th line) has something like 20 minutes of play in one of the Rangers playoff games. To be able to put a 3rd or 4th liner on the ice for that long is a huge advantage for any team.

    If the Penguins can stay consistant, they will win. Matt said it well in his conclusion, the pens have shown they can play with anyone. I would be surprised not to see 7 games though, and a batte to the end (not sure if I can handle all that stress though haha).

    Sorry Matt if I cam across insanely harsh on your post. I just critiqued, but never really gave my insight which was sort of a*shole-ish.

17. jack

    May 8, 04:49 PM

    matt, good preview, but check their records again, the flyers finished with 95 points and the penguins 102 points. Just a heads up, the flyers matched their offense during the regular season, scoring 1 more goal then the pens. so we will see who has the edge when the series starts.

18. Matt Bodenschatz

    May 8, 04:59 PM

    Jack..not sure how that happened. Thanks for the heads-up. As for the offense vs offense, its important to realize the Penguins picked up Hossa at the deadline and were without his services for most of the season, and Crosby was injured for several months. The Flyers suffered no injuries (aside from Gagne, who isn’t playing anyway) that would affect their stats at this point, though they did add Prospal, which is a lesser addition than Hossa. Regardless, it’s a close call.

    Michael, I understand what is written here won’t always be liked by everyone, but I guess my issue was that you picked on specific part and critiqued without adding your insight — while neglecting to transfer your method across the board. If we’re comparing PK to PP, we then must compare Offense to Defense/Goaltending. I understand the differences in method — I just chose to go this route simply to explain each team’s units.

19. Ashley Gallant

    May 8, 08:24 PM

    Now that Timonen’s out for the playoffs, it should be interesting to see how Philly’s defencemen handle the Pens. It’s definitely a huge loss for the Flyers.

20. DaBich

    May 9, 03:11 PM

    Ashley, it sure is and one that may help decide who wins the series.

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