Faceoff Factor

Breaking down the picks

Mike Wilson | National Hockey League

May 9, 10:37 PM | Hype this story!

Already one day into the conference finals, we’re going to go back a few days and see who the experts predicted to move on to the Stanley Cup Championship. Then we’re taking it one step more and thinking about why they picked how they did. It’s been laid out into steps to make things simple.

Step 1: We took a look at some of the big names in hockey analysis and listened to what they had to say — and then we included what the average fan said, as well.

As one will notice from the tables shown below, there isn’t much variety. The lone wolf TSN’s James Duthie went with Dallas instead of Detroit. Aside from that, everyone else picked the Penguins and Red Wings. No one picked Philadelphia.

Guru	Affiliation	Penguins/Flyers	Red Wings/Stars
Barry Melrose	ESPN	Penguins	Red Wings
John Buccigross	ESPN	Penguins	Red Wings
James Mirtle	Globe & Mail	Penguins	Red Wings
Lyle Richardson	Spectors Hockey	Penguins	Red Wings
James Duthie	TSN	Penguins	Stars
Don Cherry	CBC	Penguins	Red Wings
Mike Milbury	NBC	Penguins	Red Wings
Darren Pang	TSN	Penguins	Red Wings
Bob Mackenzie	TSN	Penguins	Red Wings
Maggie The Monkey	TSN	Penguins	Red Wings

Fan Poll	Penguins/Flyers	Red Wings/Stars
ESPN.com	Penguins (55%)	Red Wings (58%)
Faceoff Factor	Penguins (94%)	Red Wings (54%)
James Mirtle’s Blog*	Penguins (55%)	Red Wings (31%)

* Mirtle’s poll asked which team would win the Stanley Cup, not who would win each series.  The Stars received 8% of the votes and the Flyers received 7% of the votes.

To be fair to our Flyer fans, ESPN has gained a reputation for picking against Philly teams and this game was no different. Both John Buccigross and Barry Melrose picked Pittsburgh and Detroit.

Don Cherry, of CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada, didn’t waiver far from the conformity of everyone else’s picks and he, too, went with Detroit and Pittsburgh.

On a side note, Cherry will be joining ESPN’s NHL team from now until the Stanley Cup Playoffs are over. Between both he and Melrose, they will probably make the Bristol, Connecticut, Men’s Warehouse suit store millions of dollars richer.

ESPN has already added more time to their usual five minute coverage of the National Hockey League to include little montages of these rivalry matchups.

Looking at the crew from TSN, the conformity continues (the exception, of course, James Duthie). Even TSN’s own prediction primate Maggie the Monkey went with Detroit and Pittsburgh. And the greatest minds in hockey would never mess with the logic of a monkey.

One might notice that our very own experts here at Faceoff-Factor have mostly picked the Pens and Stars, not the Red Wings. Wondering why? Me too (even though the Penguins and Stars were my picks as well). Maybe it has something to do with a rematch of the 1991 Stanley Cup when the Penguins took on the Minnesota Northstars.

Step 2: What’s the attraction to these two teams that everyone is picking?

Speaking aside from stats, wins, and talent, most would like to see the old guard Detroit Red Wings square off against the new hybrid Pittsburgh Penguins. Detroit, or called by some as the retirement home of the National Hockey League, has been a dominant force for as long as hockey fans can remember.

Pittsburgh, however, has only grown since last year after suffering through what seemed like a hundred seasons which many Penguins fans wish they could forget. But that doesn’t explain…

Step 3: Why are the Penguins and Red Wings so highly regarded (statistically)?

Watching a portal on TSN’s website seems to answer it best. Mike Milbury’s reason for picking Pittsburgh was the usual naming all the offensive talent on the team and also noting how well the Penguin defense has come together around Marc-Andre Fleury, who has been stellar ever since his return.

Darran Pang added the Pittsburgh right side into the equation. This would be the two left-handed snipers Petr Sykora and Marion Hossa. The Panger spoke of how this could be very troublesome for Marty Biron on one-timers. As for the West, Pang’s Detroit pick is due to their east/west play which he says will be too much for Marty Turco.

Bob Mackenzie’s Detroit reasoning is their blue-liners. Dallas likes to fore-check and has become very successful at doing so. With Detroit’s big defensemen, the Stars’ forwards might be hesitant on the attack.

So what about the lone wolf mentioned above? James Duthie went against his pre-season pick, the Detroit Red Wings, and picked the Dallas Stars because of their believing attitude during the first two rounds and the recent play of Brendon Morrow.

As for Maggie the Monkey, her picks could be based on the fear of non-conformity among her expert, human colleagues or her attraction to a red wheel with wings on it and muscular-looking Penguin on ice skates. We’ll never know for sure.

Step 4: Why not the Flyers and Stars?

Sure, statistically, Philadelphia and Dallas end up on the bottom of the two matchups. But one stat doesn’t show up in the numbers column: physicality.

Ever since the days of the Broad Street Bullies, Philadelphia has loved hitting hard. Dallas doesn’t fall too far from that tree either. The Stars show their physicality while mucking it out in the trenches below the goal line, where west coast teams tend not to go.

But let’s be honest, when thinking physicality among these four
teams, the Flyers are the first that come to mind. Sure, the play of Pittsburgh’s Laraque, Roberts, Ruutu, and everyone else on the third and fourth line who can produce offense as well as toughness can’t be denied, but Philadelphia’s reputation precedes them.

For really the first time, Pittsburgh will be facing a team with both offense and toughness and Philadelphia’s big hitters will certainly be looking to make life difficult for the Penguin offensive attackers.

However, that very same ray of sunshine that shone brightly upon the Penguins whenever Crosby and Fleury went down with high ankle sprains is shining proudly on them once again. Flyer fans learned Friday that Kimmo Timonen, one of Philadelphia’s best shut-down men, has gone down with a foot injury.

As for Dallas, their key in their first two matchups was shutting down the big names. In Thursday’s game, they were unable to do so. The Stars and Flyers share one common task: shutting down a lot of big name offensive threats.

But to be fair to Philly and Dallas, numbers usually matter little in the playoffs and with some strong defense that both teams are capable of, there is no real harsh reason why either of them can’t advance.

Even the public polls (shown above with the expert picks) from ESPN, Faceoff Factor, and James Mirtle’s blog show that the Pens and Wings are favored among the non-experts.

Step 5: What does this mean for these four teams?

Detroit: No matter how old they get, or even if they only win a sparse two awards (I know…but it’s sparse for the Red Wings), they still manage to make it near the top, if not on top already, and make a legitimate claim for the Cup.

Dallas: They fought a lot of criticism and many people didn’t think they’d make it past Anaheim. But, they pulled together and became a tight team and earned a lot of respect along the way. However, it is not enough to some, for hardly anyone has picked them in the next round.

Pittsburgh: They came straight out of the shadows to take the Atlantic Division and are favored to take the Prince of Wales trophy. And for you Penguin fans who have been living in a cave for a year and a half…in the words of Mike Lange, “shame on you for six weeks” because this team is nowhere near the one we saw right after the lockout. Hence the playoff spirit.

Philadelphia: They, among any other team in playoffs, had the most hope to lose. They were falling in the standings and their horizons were looking grimmer every day. However, they have gained the most hope since then. They really have no need to fear the next round because the two teams they just knocked out, Washington and Montreal, were just as offensively brilliant as Pittsburgh…and look where they ended up.

No matter which way you slice it, there’s just no disappointment in hockey.