Stanley Cup Final Series Preview
Matt Bodenschatz | National Hockey League
May 21, 12:49 PM | Hype this story!
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| Inside The Series |
| As young children, hockey players dream of someday playing in the
NHL and winning the Stanley Cup. Nothing has changed for those
sporting the red and white of Detroit and the black and gold of
Pittsburgh. Second place is not an option. This Saturday, at 8 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, the 2008 Stanley Cup Final series will commence as a veteran laden Red Wings roster squares off against an incredibly young Penguins roster. "Out with the old, in with the new," some might say. Others might counter with, "It takes experience." Either way you look at it, this matchup of two teams that virtually mirror one another is a dream series for NHL executives who are doing everything in their power to, once again, put the NHL in the public spotlight. Pittsburgh plays an up-tempo, quick transition game for the most part, but when sporting a lead they won’t hesitate to shift focus to defense and play a form of the trap — though coach Michel Therrien won’t admit to that. Detroit simply does it all, all the time. In other words, their mentality is to defend well, transition quickly, and skate fast. Once they have possession, they dare opponents to take it from them — and it’s a difficult task. Both teams can win a defensive-minded game. Both teams can win an offensive-minded game. And let’s not forget about a potential goaltending dual, in which both goaltenders would have a legitimate shot at coming out on top. So what differentiates these twin powers? Let’s take a look: Offense With superstars such as Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Marian Hossa, Pavel Datsyuk, and Henrik Zetterberg in the mix, it’s clear there will be no shortage of offense. What isn’t clear is, how much of this offense will translate into goals? Detroit has averaged 36.3 shots per game for an average of 3.44 goals per game. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has averaged 32.3 shots per game for and average of 3.64 goals per game. Take out a few outlier games against Ottawa that featured shooting clinics by Pittsburgh, and what you will see is that Pittsburgh needs fewer shots to score. Because of this, I give the slight edge to Pittsburgh. Defense Nicklas Lidstrom is, very clearly, the best defender in the NHL and quite possibly one of the best of all time. Any team that has a player of his caliber on the blueline certainly would appear to have the advantage. But Pittsburgh counters him quite nicely, believe it or not, with Sergei Gonchar, who has had a spectacular run during the second half of the season and into the playoffs. The remainder of the defensive squads are relatively balanced, both providing a mixture of offensive flare, defenseive awareness, and big hit capabilities. But, as I said above, any team with Lidstrom certainly would appear to have the advantage, and I hold to that. I give the slight edge to Detroit. Goaltending It wasn’t too long ago — three months to be exact — that many fans and media types thought Ty Conklin was the short- and long-term solution between the pipes for Pittsburgh. Now, three playoff rounds later, many have young Marc-Andre Fleury penciled in as they Conn Smythe favorite for playoff MVP. Since returning from a three-month layoff resulting from a high ankle sprain, Fleury has done nothing but impress. In Detroit, the Red Wings started the playoffs with a well-known veteran in goal. Dominic Hasek has since been replaced with Chris Osgood who, despite winning two Cups with Detroit (one as a backup and another as a starter), hasn’t earned much respect. This year, however, his playoff run is proving that he is more than a mediocre starter and that he certainly is not the worst goalie to win a Stanley Cup, as many have suggested. Even so, the advantage very clearly is Pittsburgh’s. Power Play Clicking at 24.6 percent, Pittsburgh’s power play was the best among the four teams fighting for a shot to compete for Lord Stanley’s Cup. Detroit’s 21.0 percent isn’t anything to sneeze at, though. Both teams are capable of giving many different looks with different formations and player combinations, but both prefer to go with a stacked top unit. The numbers speak for themselves — as if a unit of Crosby, Malkin, Hossa, Gonchar and Ryan Malone wouldn’t do an adequate job. The advantage is Pittsburgh’s. Penalty Kill Interestingly, the teams come into the finals with identical penalty kill rates of 87.3 percent. Because of that, we must look at the players involved to make a determination. As I mentioned above, when playing defense (or in the defensive zone) the advantage goes to the team with Lidstrom. As a result, Detroit gets my nod in this category. Special Teams Combined My last series preview didn’t break down the penalty kill versus power play aspect of the series, so I figured I would add it to the mix. Based on the information above, it is easy to decipher that, since Pittsburgh has the statistical advantage in the power play category and the teams are statistically even while on the penalty kill, Pittsburgh has the very, very slight advantage. Overall What I am seeing from my vantage point is that Pittsburgh is superior — even if only slightly — than Detroit in four of the six categories outlined above. That may indicate that I believe Pittsburgh has a definitive edge over the Red Wings. That indication is incorrect. What have to be looked at to come to an overall conclusion are the intangibles. The way I see it, Pittsburgh’s centers will be difficult to match up against, but even so, Detroit has a clear advantage in the faceoff circle, where the Penguins have struggled all season and throughout the playoffs. There’s also the Tomas Holmstrom/Johan Franzen one-two punch, which allows Detroit to park a player immediately in front of the net while on offense so as to screen and distract the goaltender. And how about the age factor? Detroit has a cast of role players in their mid- to late-30s and one defenseman in his mid fourties. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has a handful of superstars in their late teens or early twenties, and the majority of their role players are in their early 30s. Taking all of this into consideration, I think the slight advantage goes to Pittsburgh, which simply refuses to lose at home. |
| Expected Lineups | |
| Penguins | Red Wings |
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Dupuis – Crosby – Hossa Malone – Malkin – Sykora Ruutu – Staal – Kennedy Hall – Talbot – Laraque Orpik – Gonchar Gill – Scuderi Whitney – Letang |
Holmstrom – Zetterberg – Datsyuk Filppula – Hudler – Cleary Samuelsson – Draper – Drake Maltby – Helm – McCarty Lidstrom – Rafalski Stuart – Kronvall Lebda – Chelios |
| Regular Season Standings | |||||||
| GP | W | L | OT | Pts | Home | Away | |
| Penguins | 82 | 47 | 27 | 8 | 102 | 26-10-5 | 21-17-3 |
| Red Wings | 82 | 54 | 21 | 7 | 115 | 29-9-3 | 25-12-4 |
| Playoff Team Statistics | ||||||||
| GF/G | GA/G | PP% | PK% | Home | Away | L 10 | Streak | |
| Penguins | 3.64 | 1.86 | 24.6 | 87.3 | 8-0 | 4-2 | 8-2 | 1 win |
| Red Wings | 3.44 | 1.94 | 21.0 | 87.3 | 7-1 | 5-3 | 8-2 | 1 win |
| Playoff Team Leaders | |||||
| One | Two | Three | Four | ||
| G | Penguins | Hossa (9) | Malkin (9) | Malone (6) | Staal (6) |
| Red Wings | Franzen (12) | Zetterberg (11) | Datsyuk (9) | Hudler (4) | |
| A | Penguins | Crosby (17) | Malkin (10) | Hossa (10) | Gonchar (10) |
| Red Wings | Kronvall (12) | Zetterberg (10) | Datsyuk (10) | Hudler (9) | |
| Pts | Penguins | Crosby (21) | Hossa (19) | Malkin (19) | Malone (15) |
| Red Wings | Zetterberg (21) | Datsuyk (19) | Franzen (15) | Hudler (13) | |
| PIMs | Penguins | Ruutu (24) | Whitney (21) | Malkin (18) | Talbot (18) |
| Red Wings | Holmstrom (20) | McCarty (19) | Kronvall (16) | Zetterberg (14) | |
| +/- | Penguins | Scuderi (+8) | Whitney (+8) | Dupuis (+7) | Hossa (+7) |
| Red Wings | Zetterberg (+15) | Datsyuk (+12) | Franzen (+9) | Lidstrom (+9) | |
| W | Penguins | Fleury (12) | |||
| Red Wings | Osgood (10) | Hasek (2) | |||
| GAA | Penguins | Fleury (1.70) | |||
| Red Wings | Osgood (1.60) | Hasek (2.91) | |||
| SV% | Penguins | Fleury (.938) | |||
| Red Wings | Osgood (.931) | Hasek (.888) | |||
| SO | Penguins | Fleury (3) | |||
| Red Wings | Osgood (1) | Hasek (0) | |||
| Injuries | |||
| Penguins | Injury | Red Wings | Injury |
| Roberts, DTD Eaton, IR |
Pneumonia Torn ACL |
Chelios, DTD Franzen, DTD Kopecky, IR |
Leg (Undisclosed) Concussion Sprained MCL/Torn ACL |
Comments
Rhiana
May 21, 12:57 PM
WOW....great preview!!
Looks like this is going to be a close series and maybe I am a little bias, but I think Pittsburgh won’t quit until the cup is theirs.
Paul
May 21, 01:59 PM
Pens in 7.
Ashley Gallant
May 21, 02:35 PM
Amazing preview. I am getting more and more excited for the Finals with each passing minute.
Dabich
May 21, 03:18 PM
As I was going to say…great preview, Matt. I can see you put a lot of thought and work into it. Now I can’t wait till Saturday to see how it all starts to unfold.
bobby t
May 22, 10:52 AM
this is the best rundown of the matchup i have seen. good work.
Let’s Go Pens!
Matt Bodenschatz
May 22, 11:57 AM
Thanks for the compliments, all! I appreciate them!
Patrick Cartwright
May 22, 01:13 PM
Very nice. well thought out.
John
May 22, 07:16 PM
This may come back to bite me, but…...
Pens in 4.
Jordan
May 22, 10:10 PM
Awesome preview, I also give the slight edge to the Pens, but not in game 1…I think this will be the only game where Detroits “experience” will come into play because of the young Penguins being in awe of actually playing for the ultimate prize. Pens in 6!
Matt Bodenschatz
May 22, 10:14 PM
Patrick, again, thank you!
John, that’s bold. I pick the Pens in 6. Regardless of who wins, it’s going to take 6 or 7 games. This is an even series. Then again, I suppose we could see 4 OT games that are won by the same team, which would suggest a lopsided victory, but would show the even nature of the teams.
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