Faceoff Factor

Conn Smythe Contenders and Pretenders

Adam Jennings | National Hockey League

May 22, 11:28 AM | Hype this story!

With three rounds in the books and a potential epic Detroit/Pittsburgh Stanley Cup Final set, it’s time to take a look at the Conn Smythe contenders.

The trophy’s history can lead us to some handicapping criteria, so before we take a look at the leading candidates, let’s lay down some ground work.

The winner better be holding the Cup
The Conn Smythe trophy has been awarded 42 times, with only five winners on losing teams. With 88 percent of the winners being on the Cup winning team, we can assume that it will likely happen again. The other thing that supports this idea, is the logjam of deserving players in this series. Looking at the top five leaders in playoff scoring, all five are playing in this series. When you take into account the two goaltenders, that’s seven strong candidates. With such an equal field, the Cup will have a lot of pull.

Stop the puck, play the blue line or take faceoffs
Wingers have taken home only six Conn Smythe trophies. This cold mean trouble for Henrik Zetterberg and Marian Hossa. Goaltenders have taken home 14 trophies (33 percent of the time) with Centers earning 13 (31 percent). Defencemen have achieved nine trophies. Over the last ten years, only goaltenders, centers and defencemen (4 Goalies, 3 Centers and 3 defensemen) have been named the Playoff MVP.

Look north
Just two recipients (Swede Nicklas Lidstrom and American Brian Leetch) have come from outside of Canada. This series has viable candidates from numerous countries (Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Hossa, Malkin), but don’t be surprised to see a Canadian (Osgood, Crosby, Fleury) take it again.

The top 10 contenders for the Conn Smythe Trophy
(This will be updated the day after each game)

The following list takes into account the above criteria, but is far from exclusively based on it.

1. Marc-Andre Fleury, G, Pittsburgh Penguins
What he’s done- So far, Fleury’s play has been stellar, making him the leading candidate as he enters the Cup Finals. He fits all the criteria, but in Fleury’s case that’s all secondary. A 12-2 record, 1.70 GAA and a .938 SV% gives him a strong case. The three shutouts put him in the number one contender role. The statistics scream out that he has the best chance to get the trophy if the Penguins win.

What he needs to do- If it’s a short series with the Pens winning, it’s almost assured that Fleury will take home the trophy. In a longer series, Fleury would have to post a shutout, steal another game and continue to face a lot of shots. I personally don’t think a goaltender will take home this year’s Conn Smythe, because in a longer series the offensive stars will fill the stat sheet.

2. Henrik Zetterberg, LW, Detroit Red Wings
What he’s done- Zetterberg is tied for the scoring lead with 21 points (11G, 10A), which is impressive in it’s own right, but what puts him in the number two spot is how he’s earned those points. Zetterberg’s splits are nine even strength points (6G, 5A), seven power play points (3G, 4A) and five short-handed points (2G, 3A). The splits show that Zetterberg is a huge factor no matter the situation.

What he needs to do- If Zetterberg continues his pace (21:24 Time on ice, 57.9 Faceoff %) and gets to 30 points, he will take home the hardware.

3. Evgeni Malkin, C, Pittsburgh Penguins
What he’s done- Malkin is tied for the Penguins lead in goals with nine and tied for second in assists (10). What puts Malkin ahead of Crosby and Hossa is his three game winning goals.

What he needs to do- Malkin needs to be a factor in every game. Five or six goals, including a game winner in this series, will make Malkin the first Russian Conn Smythe winner. Personally, I believe Malkin ends up leading the point race and grabs the MVP.

4. Chris Osgood, G, Detroit Red Wings
What he’s done- Ever since taking over in Game 4 of Detroit’s first round series with Nashville, Osgood has shined. Osgood leads the playoffs in goals against average and is third in save percentage. Osgood faces about 21 shots a game (Fleury has been facing an average of 26), which could help explain his numbers. But, the Red Wings’ puck possession style shouldn’t be held against him. Osgood isn’t an elite goaltender, but he makes the saves when he needs to and gives Detroit a chance to win every game.

What he needs to do- The Penguins could help Osgood to the Conn Smythe because I would imagine that the Penguins will average more than 21 shots a game, which could give Osgood enough opportunity to pass Zetterberg. Stealing a game in Pittsburgh would certainly give him a boost.

5. Sidney Crosby, C, Pittsburgh Penguins
What he’s done- Crosby is tied for the league lead in points, even though he’s played in two fewer games than co-leader Zetterberg. What hurts Crosby and Malkin is the lack of goals.

What he needs to do- Crosby will be content setting up goals and picking up points through assists. He doesn’t necessarily need to score a lot of goals this series, just as long as he scores a couple timely ones. At the end of a long series, if Crosby continues to lead in points and nets a game winner, the award is his.

6. Pavel Datsyuk, C, Detroit Red Wings
What he’s done- All Datsyuk has done is lead the Wings in regular season points (31G, 66A) and become a close second to Zetterberg in the playoffs (9G, 10A). It’s tough to separate Datsyuk from Zetterberg, except that Pavel only has one game winner.

What he needs to do- It will be tougher for Datsyuk to overtake Zetterberg than it will be for Crosby to top Malkin because they play on the same line. So, unless Datsyuk dominates the Finals and picks up at least two game winning goals, I don’t see him winning.

7. Marian Hossa, RW, Pittsburgh Penguins
What he’s done- Apparently Hossa didn’t get the message that he wasn’t supposed to show up for the playoffs. Hossa has put up nearly identical numbers to Malkin and is entering the Finals coming off a stellar series against the Flyers. Almost half of Marian’s points came in the Conference Finals.

What he needs to do- Much like Zetterberg, Hossa relies on his playmaking center, so if he continues to capitalize on his many opportunities he could win the MVP with ease. In a six or seven game series Hossa would need six goals and five assists to take it down.

8. Johan Franzen, C, Detroit Red Wings
What he’s done- It’s tough to put a guy that is averaging more than a goal a game this far down the list, but not playing five games in the Conference Finals will have that affect.

What he needs to do- It will be tough to shake off the rust from his concussion and over take three teammates, but if the Mule were to come back and continue his goal a game average, the argument could be made that he was the Wings MVP. I’m not saying it’s a good argument because the Wings still found a way to win without him, but the appeal of a guy who scores a goal a game is tough to ignore.

9. Nicklas Lidstrom, D, Detroit Red Wings
What he’s done- I know, I know. How do I have the former Conn Smythe winner and captain of the Wings down this low? The problem with Lidstrom is that he is a victim of circumstance. The way the two goalies have been playing and the fact that the five leading scorers are playing in this series, make it tough to give props to the best defensive player in the game. Let’s not forget that Lidstrom isn’t even the highest scoring defensemen on his own team.

What he needs to do- If the Finals go the way of the 2001-02 version (IE, low scoring and a short series), where Lidstrom took the Conn Smythe, then he could win the award again. In the ’02 Finals, Lidstrom had a game winning goal, two assists (one was on a game wining goal) and a +1 rating.

10. Ryan Malone, LW Pittsburgh Penguins
What he’s done- Bugsy has continued to fill his role on Malkin’s line exceedingly well. Malone is fourth in scoring on the Pens (6G, 9A) and is one of the most physical presences on the team. Malone has been consistent throughout the playoffs, contributing in each series.

What he needs to do- It would seem the only way Malone could take home the Conn Smythe is via a miracle. Bugsy would have to be the Pens leading scorer for the Finals by a two or three point margin to overtake Malkin, Crosby and Hossa. This still leaves him behind Fleury, so the only way he leapfrogs the Flower is if this is an extremely high scoring series.

Longshots

Nicklas Kronwall, D, Detroit Red Wings
Kronwall leads Detroit D-men in points (0G, 12A) and remains a great open ice hitter.

Thomas Holmstrom, LW, Detroit Red Wings
The 35-year-old continues to contribute. It’s usually not pretty, but Holmstrom finds ways to get pucks in the net and plays a very physical game.

Sergei Gonchar, D, Pittsburgh Penguins
As long as the Penguins have Crosby and Malkin, they will be known as an offensive team. Gonchar has contributed 11 points (1G, 10A) and is fifth on the team in playoff scoring, but it’s a mere pipe dream for him to win the Conn Smythe.

Jordan Staal, C, Pittsburgh Penguins
If Staal had played the way he did against Flyers the entire playoffs, he would have a legitimate shot at MVP. Staal’s defensive game doesn’t win MVPs, it merely wins Cups.