Faceoff Factor

Breaking Down the Rosters: Who Has The Edge?

Matt Bodenschatz | National Hockey League

May 23, 12:51 PM | Hype this story!

As I scroll through the ever-growing list of “guru” predictions put together by the FF staff and our dedicated readers, I understand the logic behind picking Red Wings, but I won’t buy into it.

The Penguins just have a better team.

Don’t believe me? Let’s break it down player by player.

Sidney Crosby vs. Pavel Datsyuk
Who wouldn’t want to have either of these players? Both are young, fast, and unbelievably talented. The difference is, Crosby already has more 100 point seasons (2) than Datsyuk (0) does. Sure, Datsyuk plays a little tighter in the defensive zone, but, as evidenced in the Flyers series, Crosby is more than capable of doing the same.
Winner: Crosby

Evgeni Malkin vs. Henrik Zetterberg
I realize the positions they play are different, but their status as the teams’ second best player makes them comparable. Zetterberg is pretty solid all over the ice and can kill the opponent while shorthanded, but Malkin has surpassed Zetterberg’s best point total in just his second season. To add, when given the opportunity, Malkin also can kill opponents on the penalty kill; he just doesn’t have to since the team is loaded with other solid defensive forwards.
Winner: Malkin

Sergei Gonchar vs. Nicklas Lidstrom
An all-offense defenseman typically does not match up against one of the greatest defenders in the history of the game, but Gonchar hasn’t done a bad job in any of the three zones this year. Lidstrom finished with 70 points to Gonchar’s 65, but it’s his +40 that differentiates him from “Sarge” (+13). But Gonchar has stepped up his play big time of late, closing the gap between himself and the stud.
Winner: Lidstrom

Ryan Whitney vs. Brian Rafalski
It’s difficult to call Whitney the number two defender on the Penguins’ roster, but he is the player who matches up best with Rafalski’s style of play. Whitney – in a down year – finished with 40 points and a minus-2 rating, while Rafalski finished with 55 points and a plus-27 rating. Clearly, there is a big difference in the statistics and, to be honest, on the ice as well.
Winner: Rafalski

Marc-Andre Fleury vs. Chris Osgood
A year ago, most people would have laughed at the notion that these two goalies would be in the Conn Smythe running, but this isn’t a year ago. Both have stepped up their games to new heights, but Fleury has had to handle more. In just two more games played during the playoffs, Fleury has faced 100 more shots, yet has given up just four more goals. Imagine how good Fleury’s stats would be if he had Lidstrom and Rafalski in front of him.
Winner: Fleury

Now, this is where it gets a bit lopsided, seeing as how the Red Wings just don’t have the personnel to match up against the Penguins – at least one on one.

Marian Hossa vs. Daniel Cleary
Hossa finished with 66 points, while Cleary finished with 42.
Winner: Hossa

Petr Sykora vs. Jiri Hudler
Sykora’s 63 points trumped Hudler’s 42.
Winner: Sykora

Ryan Malone vs. Tomas Holmstrom
I’d take Malone and his 51 “power forward” points in comparison to Holmstrom and his 40 “power forward” points.
Winner: Malone

But, to take this a bit further, let’s analyze the rest of the teams in segments, so as to save on time.

Ruutu – Staal – Kennedy vs. Samuelsson – Draper – Drake
Both have an agitator (Ruutu/Draper), but that’s about the only reasonable comparison. Samuelsson has been a solid player for the Wings, but he’s no Staal, and Drake may have experience, but does his 29-year-old body provide the same kind of spark Kennedy’s 21-year-old body can? Maybe some of the time, but not each and every shift.
Winner: Ruutu – Staal – Kennedy

Hall – Talbot – Laraque vs. Maltby – Helm – McCarty
Let’s face it, Detroit’s fourth line crushes Pittsburgh in the experience department, but that’s about it. I’d take any of the three (four if you count Roberts) Penguin four liners over any of the three Red Wing fourth liners. There really is no comparison.
Winner: Hall – Talbot – Laraque

Orpik/Gill/Scuderi/Letang vs. Stuart/Kronvall/Lebda/Chelios
Among these bunches, it’s clear Detroit has the bigger “names” in Chelios, who has been around since the Cold War, and Stuart, who suddenly decided to play to his abilities. Pittsburgh, however, has players to counter. Orpik doesn’t throw open ice hits the way Kronvall does, but he hits everything in sight with one of the most powerful frames in the NHL. Gill and Scuderi have formed a spectacular shutdown tandem that could outplay any combination of these four Red Wings. And Letang, let’s just say Detroit doesn’t have an answer for him.
Winner: Orpik/Gill/Scuderi/Letang

Clearly, this analysis is looking at the “today,” not the “yesterday’ or the “tomorrow.”

The only area in which I see any sort of edge for Detroit is in their top two defensemen, who play so well at both ends of the ice.

Offensively, the Red Wings may have more numbers scattered throughout their roster, but the Penguins have a slew of players who not only tally points, but also play defensively and take the body.

I understand why “gurus” are picking the Red Wings to win. First off, it’s the safe prediction, as they have won the Cup numerous times in the previous 10 years. They’re also the “sexy” prediction, as they are bordering on dynasty status and have proven why they shouldn’t be bet against.

Yet the Penguins seemingly have a much more talented roster, on the whole. They’re young and inexperienced, making them a risky pick to defeat a team that “knows how to win,” but they’ve also defied odds all year long.

No matter how you look at it, this series will be close. But the winner may just surprise a lot of those “gurus” who stuck with old tradition rather than starting a new one.