Faceoff Factor

Inside My Prediction

Matt Bodenschatz | National Hockey League

May 23, 02:33 PM | Hype this story!

Earlier this week, I, along the rest of the FF staff, predicted the outcome of the Stanley Cup Finals as well as the Conn Smythe winner.

Since we’re a day away from the start of the big show, I feel it’s time to get into the specifics of my prediction.

First of all, I want to make it clear that I feel the Penguins are far from a lock to win their first Stanley Cup since 1992. But I also feel the Red Wings are far from a lock to win yet another one.

So when I look at this matchup in advance, I find it hard to believe either team will walk away with brooms in hand or with a victory after just five games.

This series is going to last six or seven games and will be hard-fought from the first faceoff to the sound of the final buzzer.

Scenario One: Six Games

Pittsburgh is going to find that it is tough sledding playing in Detroit. The Red Wings don’t like to lose in general, but hate it even more when at home. Since the Red Wings have the home ice advantage, the Penguins must win at least one game in “Hockeytown.”

And that is all they’ll win while visiting Michigan.

If this series ends in six games, it is my prediction that the Penguins are the victors. I just can’t see them being put away on home ice in front of a sellout crowd that hasn’t seen them lose since February.

Conn Smythe: Marc-Andre Fleury

Scenario Two: Seven Games

But just as I can’t see the Penguins being put away on home ice, I also can’t see the Red Wings surrendering to an inexperienced team in front of their hometown fans (however many of them show up – or don’t show up, I should say).

The experience factor means nothing to me in this series – unless it reaches game seven. At that point, Detroit’s Stanley Cup familiarity will play a significant role in leading them to Lord Stanley’s grail.

Conn Smythe: Chris Osgood

As you can see, my Conn Smythe favorites are the goalies. Why? Because both teams have world-class offensive talents who will produce plenty of scoring chances. Whichever goaltender handles himself the best will lead his team to the Cup. It’s that simple.

So, to clarify, my pick remains with the Penguins in six games. But, let it be known that I believe this series will be won on home ice – and if it makes it to game seven, home ice will be in Detroit.