Stanley Cup Finals Game 3 Preview: Penguins Host Red Wings

Matt Bodenschatz | National Hockey League

May 28, 10:36 AM | Hype this story!
W L Score
0 0 0
 
Score W L
2 1 0
Series Preview — Schedule — FF Predictions — Media Predictions

8:00 @ Mellon Arena
NBC, CBC, RDS
Probable Goaltenders: Fleury (Pit), Osgood (Det)
 

Inside The Game
Down two games to none, the Penguins tonight return to Mellon Arena, where they haven’t lost a game since February.

"Our crowds at home are awesome," right winger Tyler Kennedy said to Dave Molinari of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Our crowds are like our sixth player. You score a goal, it’s like you’ve won the Stanley Cup. It’s unbelievable."

But the Penguins will have to score a goal first — something they have yet to do this series after scoring six in the clinching game of the Eastern Conference Finals.

"Obviously, it’s a surprise," Penguins left winger Gary Roberts said to the Post-Gazette. "We’ve had some success scoring goals in the playoffs."

To spark some offense, coach Michel Therrien changed his lines for game two, though the result was the same.  Early indications are that he will try additional roster moves tonight, and could possibly return to his original line formations.

According to various sources, including TSN, veteran defenseman Darryl Sydor will be in the lineup in favor of rookie Kris Letang.

Other potential moves include returning to the original lines, occasionally playing Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby on the same line, and splitting the top power play grouping into two units, one led my Crosby and the other by Malkin.

The Penguins realize that, while tonight’s game is not a technical "must-win," it is a very important game that they, well, must win.

"It’s a huge game," Roberts said in the Post-Gazette.  "No one is going to tell you it’s not a must win. If you go down 3-0 against that team, it’s going to be pretty tough to come back.  We have to believe if we can win tomorrow night and change the momentum in our favor, we’ll be right back in the series."

And that very well could be the case.

However, historically, odds are against them.

There have been 43 teams that started the Stanley Cup Finals with a 2-0 series lead.  Of those teams, 40 went on to win the Cup.  History also suggests the Penguins will lose tonight.  Of those 43 teams that started out 2-0, 25 moved on to a 3-0 record in the Finals.

To win tonight, the Penguins will look for line matching, something they didn’t have the luxury of accomplishing on the road.  Therrien will do everything in his power to keep Crosby’s unit off the ice against Pavel Datsyuk’s offensive unit and Nicklas Lidstrom’s defensive unit.

In Game Two, Crosby, Marian Hossa and Ryan Malone — the three players on the top line — played the following minutes against the following players, according to Timeonice.com:

  Crosby Hossa Malone
Lidstrom 11.8 10.4 10.2
Rafalski 10.6 9.1 9.6
Zetterberg 10.3 10.0 9.1
Datsyuk 9.8 9.4 8.9

All of Lidstrom, Rafalski, Zetterberg and Datsyuk spent the majority of their time on the ice when Crosby also was on the ice.

As you can see, Therrien couldn’t find a way to keep his top line away from Detroit’s best defensive players.  And, for the record, Datsyuk and Zetterberg finished the season as two of the three finalists for the Selke Trophy, awarded to the best defensive forward in the NHL, and Lidstrom finished as one of three finalists for the Norris Trophy, given to the best defenseman in the NHL.

If Therrien can get his desired line combinations and the Penguins can carry over some of the fire displayed at the end of Game Two, they will be in decent position to secure their first victory of the series.

But, even so, the most important aspect of tonight’s game has little to do with line matching, line combinations, power play units or historical statistics.  In the end, what it comes down to is the first goal.

Both teams play a strong defensive game with the lead, and it isn’t unreasonable to expect the team that scored the first goal to win the game.
 
Playoff Team Statistics
  GF/G GA/G PP% PK% Home Away L 10 Streak
Penguins 3.19 2.06 21.9 88.4 8-0 4-4 7-3 2 losses
Red Wings 3.44 1.72 18.9 88.6 9-1 5-3 8-2 3 wins
 
Series Leaders
  Stat Penguins   Stat Red Wings
Goals - - Goals 2 Samuelsson
Assists - - Assists 2 Stuart
Points - - Points 3 Stuart
PIMs 14 Roberts/Talbot PIMs 6 Holmstrom
GAA 3.50 Fleury GAA 0.00 Osgood
Sv% .900 Fleury Sv% 1.00 Osgood
 
Series Results
In Detroit In Pittsburgh
Game 1 Detroit wins 4-0    
Game 2 Detroit wins 3-0    
    Game 3  
    Game 4  
Game 5      
    Game 6  
Game 7      
 
Injuries
Penguins Injury Red Wings Injury
Eaton, IR Torn ACL Kopecky, IR Sprained MCL/Torn ACL
 
Note: Info up-to-date as of 10:30 am, Wednesday, May 28, 2008.

Comments

  1. Dabich

    May 28, 11:06 AM

    I’ll be watching…

    hoping for the best…

  2. DAVID

    May 28, 11:42 AM

    I’ll be watching.

    If the Pens get just one goal, they have shown all season that they can build an incredible amount of momentum of of it. Looking back, most of their goals have come in clusters. Once that first puck penetrates the Wings, I believe our boys will show up.

    Get the first boys!

  3. Ashley Gallant

    May 28, 12:15 PM

    David – I agree with you. I think the key to winning tonight is for the Pens to score a goal very early in the game and get the crowd into it. I wouldn’t be surprised if they wonder whether they can penetrate the Wings at all. They need to prove to themselves that there isn’t some kind of force field around Detroit’s net.

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