Faceoff Factor

Rating the Divisions, Part 4: The Southeast Division

Zack Dawson | National Hockey League

Oct 1, 10:02 PM | Hype this story!

As the opening of the 2009-2010 season draws near, I take a look at each division. I rank each team by how well they will finish the regular season. I will also give my take on which teams will be playoff teams, which will be on the bubble and which ones will miss the postseason.

The Washington Capitals have dominated the Southeast Division that last two years due to their explosive offense. However, the division is arguably the most improved over the last two seasons as well. Last year was the first time two teams from the Southeast made the postseason since 2006-2007. And Florida found themselves just outside of the playoffs. With the division starting to become more competitive, Washington may not have such as easy time holding onto that division title.

5. Atlanta Thrashers

The Thrashers were a team that found some success early in the post-lockout NHL, winning the Southeast division by nine points before being swept handily by the New York Rangers in the first round. Since then, Atlanta hasn’t even sniffed the postseason, finishing both seasons with 76 points. Many factors contributed to their decline, but most of the blame lies with Don Waddell and the terrible trades he made starting with that playoff year, dealing numerous picks and young talent for players on the decline. His dealing of Marian Hossa two years ago wasn’t much better, garnering minimal return value.

Since then, Waddell has tried to restock the cupboards a bit by staying quiet in the trade market. They have been able keep their last two first-round picks, taking Zach Bogosian in 2008 and Evander Kane in this year’s draft. Both players are tremendous talents. Bogosian will almost assuredly be in the starting lineup, and Kane will most likely play some games this year if he doesn’t start.

But the Thrashers are still at a point where they will feel the effects of those poor decisions by Waddell. The additions of Nik Antropov and Pavel Kubina won’t hurt the cause, but are not enough to turn the team around. The Thrashers are far off of that 97-point season only three seasons ago.

4. Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay was the epitome of how not to run a franchise last season, a model of true dysfunction: feuding owners, a porous defense, under achieving forwards with big contracts and Barry Melrose. It was hard to turn away from the train wreck that was the Lightning last season.

But with that in mind, there truly isn’t anywhere for them to go but up. The management in Tampa addressed the blue line by adding veterans Mattias Ohlund and Matt Walker. They also drafted Victor Hedman with the second-overall pick in the draft this year. These three players significantly improve the defense in Tampa. However, the lightning are still a team banking on certain players to be major contributors. Steven Stamkos will have to have a solid sophomore effort, and Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis will have to get back to their pre-lockout form.

Tampa is a little uncertain in net, but this is only one of the question marks hovering around this season for the Lightning. This season should be an improvement over last year, but the Lightning still have work to do to get back to where they were before the lockout – Stanley Cup champions.

3. Florida Panthers

Heartbreaking is a pretty accurate word for the Panthers’ 2008-2009 season, finishing in ninth place and just out of reach of a playoff spot. But another equally accurate word is hopeful. The Panthers, for the first time in quite a few years, looked like they belonged in the playoffs. Young skaters and strong goaltending made the Panthers a tough opponent.

There were a number of notable departures for the Panthers. Jay Bouwmeester was dealt at the draft; and Craig Anderson, Richard Zednik, Karlis Skrastins and Nick Boynton all moved on to other teams. But the Panthers still have their young stars in place. David Booth and Nathan Horton will have to be the leaders for the offense. Both are talented and both have the ability to be leaders. And despite the defense losing Bouwmeester, they will still have a solid blue line in front on Tomas Vokoun, who has been solid in net.

The Panthers have found some success and will be hungry to move up to that elusive eighth position in the East. If they can continue playing the way they did last season, the Panthers will have a real shot at making the playoffs.

2. Carolina Hurricanes

Going into last season, no one could have guessed that the Hurricanes would have been runners-up in the Eastern Conference. There were even doubts about a playoff berth in general. The ‘Canes showed all their critics that they still had what it takes to be a winning club.

The key players in their Stanley Cup Championship run are still on the roster. Eric Staal is still the offensive leader for the team, and Cam Ward is still among the top goaltenders in the league. But what made the difference for Carolina last season as compared to the previous two seasons was a supporting cast that contributed real offense. Chad LaRose, Jussi Jokinen and Erik Cole were all key contributors during the season and in the playoffs. Their defense was carved up a bit in the Conference Finals, but they added Andrew Alberts to give them some grit, and Aaron Ward for skill.

The Hurricanes hit their stride at the end of last season, and are bringing back much of that roster for this season. Carolina has a chance to prove that they weren’t a fluke last year. With the roster in place and a desire to get back to that championship form, the Hurricanes have a real chance to take the division by storm.

1. Washington Capitals

Last season played out similarly to the one before: The Capitals won the Southeast Division, Alex Ovechkin won the Hart Trophy, and Capitals fans really had something to cheer about. However, the postseason ended the same way for the Capitals as well: losing a Game 7 at home. This year’s playoff run extended into the second round, but was certainly a disappointing loss for a team trying to prove they have a championship-caliber roster.

While the core offensive players are still a part of the team, there were a few key departures for the Capitals. Veteran forwards Sergei Fedorov and Viktor Kozlov both left for Russia. Kozlov was a sniper with size who played a consistent game. Fedorov was a leader who played a good two-way game on a team made up of forwards who were far less defensive. Additionally, they lost goaltender Brent Johnson, who was the starter at the beginning of the season before being sidelined by hip surgery. The Caps will put their trust in either Jose Theodore, who has been underwhelming as a starter, or Semyon Varlamov, who has played more postseason games at the NHL level than regular season ones.

The only players brought in to fill the holes were Mike Knuble and Brendan Morrison. Knuble will be a strange fit in Washington’s high-tempo offense, and Morrison has been on the decline the last few years. In the end, the goaltending will have to hold up more so this year than last. While the Caps are easily a playoff team and should win the division, they will most likely see a bit of a decline this year.

To recap:
Division Winner: Washington Capitals
Playoff Teams: Washington Capitals; Carolina Hurricanes
Bubble Teams: Florida Panthers
Basement Teams: Tampa Bay Lightning; Atlanta Thrashers