Caputi's Upside is Smaller than You Think

Zach Boslett | National Hockey League

Mar 2, 07:30 PM | Hype this story!

When the tweet came in from Bob McKenzie that the deal was finalized – Luca Caputi and Martin Skoula for Alexei Ponikarovsky my first reaction was… exuberance.

And I may be one of Caputi’s biggest fans.

However, some people, both Pens fans and Leafs fans as well as “Fantasy Experts”, are overvaluing Caputi’s true talent and upside.

Is he a top 6 forward? In Pittsburgh he would have likely made the team next season.

Is he a “true” top 6 forward? More than likely he will not be considered a top 2 lines guy if/when he makes the NHL.

Dobber Hockey, a fantasy hockey website, has been quoted on Twitter, Puck Daddy, HF Boards and other hockey websites for this little gem of a quote on what he feels Caputi’s upside is:

“While Caputi now has some immediate value, as I think he will make the Leafs and play out the season for them, his upside just went down by about 10 or 15 points. Instead of possibly being an 85+ player he is limited to 70 to 75 at best.“ (Italics added by me.)

I have seen Caputi play, both in person and on tv/internet probably 50 times and he would not have scored 85+ points in the high scoring NHL of the 1980s, let alone now.

Caputi’s career season will likely peak at 50 or so points – a respectable number and a valuable number to the Penguins. But Leaf fans must know they are not getting a player on the lines of recent 70-85 point scorers like:

Jeff Carter, Mike Cammalleri, Daniel and Henrik Sedin, Martin St. Louis, Mike Richards, Rick Nash, Alexander Semin, Patrick Elias, Martin Havlat, Eric Staal, Simon Gagne, Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, Henrik Zetterberg, Shane Doan, Dany Heatley, Brad Boyes, Corey Perry, Marian Hossa, Patrick Marleau, Patrick Kane… I think you get the picture.

Caputi’s career path will likely follow players like: RJ Umberger, Steve Ott, Drew Stafford, Antti Miettinen, Lee Stempniak, Matt Cullen, Erik Cole etc… BUT THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH GUYS LIKE THESE!

Leaf fans… Caputi will be a serviceable player for you for years. But please… for Caputi’s sake (and your own sanity), do not expect anything close to 60-80 points. You will just be disappointed. He is a heart and soul 20-20 player with an edge to his game – not a bad prize at all.

So please Penguin fans… I beg you. Do not lament the loss of a player that was simply a popular player due to a badass hockey name and a player that was a light in a dark place.

I am sad to see Caputi go. He was probably my 2nd favorite prospect behind Eric Tangradi. I have watched him play since his days with the Mississauga IceDogs of the OHL.

But I do realize that Ponikarovsky is an established, proven NHL scorer with size that can help the team now – not maybe, hopefully, eventually a few years down the road.

Comments

  1. dobber

    Mar 3, 08:06 AM

    I agree 100%. In fact, Caputi will “likely” not be a successful top six NHLer at all. If I were to bet $100 it would be on him not ever getting 55 points.
    Why?
    Because that’s an easy bet to make. It’s easy to fluff a softball on a prospect’s “upside” and say 50 points. Because odds are you will be exactly right.

    So when ‘I’ say the word “upside”, I mean – and I have said this a million times – it is a 5% chance of happening at best. An upside to me is the absolute number that this guy will hit if everything falls into place. And I would bet my house on him not surpassing that number. Would you bet your house that Caputi would not surpass 55 points? I don’t think you would risk an entire house on it.
    Based on that definition – one that I have used for the last decade with my readers – I set Caputi’s number at 72 points.

  2. Stilly

    Mar 3, 08:17 AM

    “I set Caputi’s number at 72 points.”

    Yeah I think that’s a fair guess at his high end potential. Some people see ‘upside’ and think the maximum possible realization of his abilities. Others see ‘upside’ and think a realistic projection of his NHL performance.

    I think Zach (great name BTW) is spot on in talking about his realistic NHL projection. This is all contingent on Caputi getting his head on straight and working to improve his strength and skating. Maybe moving back home will point him in that direction.

    Getting Poni for a run today is preferable to what Caputi could possibly might bring in the future. That’s especially true with Tangradi waiting in the wings.

  3. Peter Coulton

    Mar 3, 08:48 AM

    I agree perfectly with all your projections, I think its still a great deal for the Leafs as Poni was gone for nothing this year anyway. Did they maximize his value, maybe not, but at least this way they got a forward back that can play next year and will be cheap so they can spend this summer. The Leafs have one good thing going, lots of young players who are cheap and controlled to play on 3rd and 4th lines. They need to sign some top 6 forwards, Only Kaberle could get them one through a trade.

  4. Matt Bodenschatz

    Mar 3, 09:06 AM

    Nice piece Zach!

    @Dobber, thanks for stopping by and defending your logic. It’s a bit more clear and makes a bit more sense.

    @Stilly, if Poni re-signs, this deal looks even better for Pittsburgh.

    @Peter, definitely a good deal for the Leafs, and they obviously weren’t getting the offers they hoped they would get.

  5. Colligan

    Mar 3, 10:22 AM

    All great points and insightful comments, which is refreshing.

    Caputi really needs to get stronger before he’s ready to handle the role he’s excelled at in lower levels. I think Toronto is a great opportunity. He’ll get a chance to get his feet wet as he and Hanson fight it out for that parking spot in front of the net.

    While he won’t be a Crosby or Malkin leech and hit 85 points, I do think he’s got a chance of working well at some stage with Bozak and Kessel. Whether that’s next week, next year, who knows…but he’ll get his shot.

    Bylsma got plenty of time to see Caputi at WBS, and when I saw him get shunned to the press box after a few games this season, the red flag went up in my mind.

    All in all, a good trade for both teams. The Penguins lose a piece of their future, but they aren’t playing for the future, they’re playing for now.

  6. Matt Bodenschatz

    Mar 3, 10:39 AM

    @Colligan, thanks for stopping by!

    “The Penguins lose a piece of their future, but they aren’t playing for the future, they’re playing for now.”

    That’s the perfect quote.

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