Faceoff Factor

FF Birthday Series -- Weekly Question 3

Matt Bodenschatz | Pittsburgh Penguins

Feb 18, 09:26 AM | Hype this story!

As part of Faceoff Factor’s one year birthday celebration, we have invited members of the media and blogosphere to answer a weekly question about the Pittsburgh Penguins and/or the NHL.

This week the panel of writers includes Lyle Richardson, Tony Ferrante, and Michael Farkas.

Richardson is the mastermind behind Spector’s Hockey, a site that focuses on trade rumors and commentary. His knowledge of hockey — primarily within the trade and transaction realm — has led him to be one of the most reliable and respectable sources on the internet.

Ferrante has taken more of a blog approach, writing news and opinions for his blog, The Confluence of the Three Rivers. While he admits he has no inside information, he is a true fan of the game who simply loves writing about his favorite team: the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Farkas is Faceoff Factor’s resident transaction guru. During his tenure here, he has put together a transaction tracker that he updates daily and has compiled a list of all teams’ draft picks for the 2008 NHL Entry Draft.

Now on to the question…

“Building off of last week’s question regarding the increased competition in the NHL as evidenced by the standings, what do you feel the trade landscape will be this year?”

Lyle Richardson, Spector’s Hockey
I believe the trade landscape won’t alter that much compared to previous years, in that we’ll see two, three, perhaps four big name players moved in the days leading up to and including the deadline, and that the bulk of the trades will be depth movements like third and fourth line forwards, fifth and sixth defencemen and backup goalies.

The reason for this is there’s always pressure on general managers, either to bolster their rosters for the playoffs or to get something in return for players they know won’t be back after this season, specifically potential unrestricted free agents.

Even though the asking price right now for big name players like Hossa, Sundin or Blake might be expensive, it could drop as the deadline nears if there’s not enough interest in those players. And it’s always possible that one nervous GM could be willing to pay out the expensive price tag for at least one of those big ticket rentals.

Tony Ferrante, The Confluence of the Three Rivers
I think it can be argued that Ray Shero may have the toughest GM job on trade deadline day. He’s got a crapload of ridiculously young world-class talent, the result of going through six painful rebuilding seasons and one incredibly fortunate bounce of the ping-pong ball to get the rights to Sidney Crosby. At the same time, he must realize that he’s THIS close to being a serious contender for the Eastern Conference, especially if he makes a tweak or two. So he has the unenviable position of juggling the needs of the present against the prospects of the future.

First and foremost, he knows that he’s got some important pieces to the Penguins puzzle that are unrestricted free agents at the end of the year, namely Gary Roberts, Ryan Malone, Brooks Orpik, Mark Eaton, Georges Laraque and Jarkko Ruutu, not to mention Adam Hall, Kris Beech, Alain Nasreddine and Ty Conklin. So he and his staff have to decide whether they’re going to trade them at the deadline or attempt to re-sign them at the end of the year, of course risking losing them to free agency. Roberts and Laraque both have no-trade clauses, for what it’s worth. Besides that, both of those two are going to be key in the playoffs. Roberts was an absolute beast against Ottawa last year. Laraque learned his lesson last year against Ottawa with his lack of physical play, he could be a key asset this time around. Malone’s resurgence this year probably will result in quite a jump of his 1.45M salary in his next contract. The trading of Malone, what looked like a sure thing last year at this time, looks to be doubtful this year. It would take quite a return for Shero to pull the trigger trading Malone. Orpik has not had a very good year, I don’t see him hanging around, in fact I think it’ll be between he and Erik Christensen among the first Pens to be traded this year. Eaton’s injury of course takes him out of the equation, and hopefully the Pens will initiate contract talks with him as soon as it’s feasible. Ruutu is an interesting case, I think it’s possible he could be gone too. While his agitator role is certainly welcomed, his lack of scoring in an offense that sorely needs secondary scoring is troubling. Conklin has been the pleasant surprise, so of course he’s not going anywhere, in fact I’d be shocked if the Pens didn’t start contract negotiations as soon as they can after the season ends.

In terms of the other roster players, I think Colby Armstrong is a strong bet to go as well. Even though he’s Crosby’s buddy, his lack of offense really makes him a third line mucker at best. In terms of his physical presence, I believe it can be argued that he hasn’t had a big hit since the playoff hit of Patrick Eaves last year. He just hasn’t been the same since that bone-jarring hit, hasn’t hit anyone close to that. Another Penguin that will probably go, as I mentioned, is Erik Christensen. I think that Christensen has just enough offensive skill to warrant a pretty decent return in a trade, enough that they’ll probably overlook his lack of forechecking, although he has played better recently. The last one that I’d mention is Dany Sabourin. He had the misfortune of watching Ty Conklin stand on his head for a month. It also didn’t help that he looked merely mortal when he got in goal himself. The trade deadline is coming up at pretty much the perfect time for moving Sabourin. Marc-Andre Fleury is nearly ready to go, and I don’t believe that Sabourin would last through waivers if Shero tried to send him to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, just as I don’t think they’d have three goalies on the active roster. NHL teams are always looking for goalie depth, so trading Sabourin could gather some decent return, perhaps a decent draft pick.

The last piece of the trade deadline to discuss is draft picks. In previous years, it would be ridiculous to contemplate the Pens trading away one of their high #1’s. However, the days of drafting in the top five appear to be over for quite a long time. Next year’s #1 pick for the Pens looks to be at least at the #20 selection or so, if not lower, depending on how far the Pens go in the playoffs. Shero could be giving serious thought to dealing that #1 pick if it helps him get that scoring winger for Crosby, or that physical defenseman to go alongside all of the Pens’ offensive defensemen.

How do I think it’ll go? Well, let’s see. I don’t think we’ll see a marquee name coming to the Pens. I just don’t see Shero giving up that many assets. I doubt we’ll see anyone in the Hossa class, but maybe down a rung lower, in the Prospal or Nagy class. I also have a gut feeling that Shero is gonna get the rumored deal done with Columbus to get defenseman Ole-Kristian Tollefsen, probably for Christensen. The two teams have been scouting each other for too long now. In addition, I think it’s also possible that Armstrong, Orpik, Ruutu, and Sabourin could go as well.

Of course, I don’t have any “inside info” to prove that, I’m just some schmuck with a blog.

Other than that, who the hell knows…

Michael Farkas, Faceoff Factor
On the whole, the league is a little tighter than usual, combined with the earlier trade deadline, it makes for some tricky decisions for the league’s general managers. A lot of bubble teams will base their decision on what their contracts look like for next year and how they faired in the last handful of games before the deadline.

Right now, you look at a team like Toronto, they have bad contracts, they are fading fast, that’s a seller. You look at a team like Washington, who has a good thing going right now, the Canes lost Brind’Amour, Atlanta will likely lose Hossa to a trade, maybe they should add a piece or two (cheaply) and see if they can generate some extra cash by going to a second or third playoff round.

I think we’ll see a lot of teams sitting tight, some teams out there really like what they have built up and won’t want to have too much turnover. Colorado, San Jose, Phoenix, Columbus, Chicago, St. Louis, etc. those are teams that aren’t going to “blow things up.” Maybe a move is to be had here and there (St. Louis with Jackman, Colorado with Liles and so on) but those are clubs that could afford to stand pat and give it a go next year if it doesn’t work out this year.

You’ll still see the rentals being moved to Cup contenders and all that, and we might see a surprise bidding war or two, but I think the amount of major, franchise changing moves will be at a minimum. But, really, the trade deadline is as predictable as the weather; so, grains of salt are on the house.