Faceoff Factor

FF Birthday Series -- Weekly Question 4

Matt Bodenschatz | Pittsburgh Penguins

Feb 25, 09:27 AM | Hype this story!

As part of Faceoff Factor’s one year birthday celebration, we have invited members of the media and blogosphere to answer a weekly question about the Pittsburgh Penguins and/or the NHL.

Since this is the last Monday of the month, this will be the last of the four-part series, but if you liked what you have read and want to see more, let us know! We’re tinkering with the idea of making this a monthly segment.

This week the panel of writers includes Seth Rorabaugh, Brian Metzer, Jordan Weigler, and CJ “Stoosh” Juliante.

Rorabaugh covers the Pittsburgh Penguins and the NHL for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. He has been with the Post-Gazette since 2000.

Metzer, a former writer at Faceoff Factor, covers the Penguins beat for HockeyBuzz and is a correspondent for XM radio’s Home Ice 204. He is also the host of the Penguins Hockey Buzzcast, which airs twice weekly.

Weigler’s takes a general look at the NHL through commentary about league happenings such as firings, trades teams cap situations, etc.

Juilante, better known as “Stoosh,” is an opinion writer for Faceoff Factor and has been with the site for most of its one-year existence.

Now on to the question…

“With the playoffs right around the corner, which team do you feel would be the best match-up for the Pittsburgh Penguins and why? Additionally, regardless of their match-up, who deep into the playoffs do you think the Penguins will go?”

Seth Rorabaugh, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Empty Netters
I think the Penguins would do well to draw Buffalo in the first round. Both teams play a similar style in terms of their offensive philsophy. They both like to attack. The only difference is that the Penguins have two guys like Sidney Crosby (when healthy) and Evgeni Malkin leading the attack and they have a solid supporting crew behind them with guys like Ryan Malone and Petr Sykora. With apologies to Thomas Vanek, the Sabres don’t really have a franchise player of that ilk. Guys like Jason Pominville and Derek Roy are nice players, but you can’t build a franchise around them.

I think the Penguins would take a series against Buffalo in five games. They would be competitive games for sure. A lot of 3-2, 4-2 scores, but the Penguins should close them out quickly.

I think the realistic ceiling for this Penguins team as it is right now (prior to the trade deadline) is the conference finals. Today’s game against Ottawa demonstrated that the Penguins still have some growing up to do when it comes to playing with the big boys. They had an opportunity to close that game out early with several power-play opportunities, but failed to do so. They eventually took their foot off the gas and allowed Ottawa to creep back into the contest and eventually win it. When you have a team as talented as Ottawa or Detroit on the ropes, you need to put them away.

Brian Metzer, HockeyBuzz.com
Well, you guys put me in an interesting situation with this question, as I would have liked to have seen the trade deadline pass before answering! Since I do not have the benefit of knowing who will win the Marion Hossa, Brad Richards, Brian Campbell, Mats Sundin or Petr Forsberg sweepstakes, I crunch a few numbers to find my answer, because stats don’t lie…right?

First let’s take a look at who the Penguins would face if the playoffs were to begin today. Your Flightless Birds would hit the ice against the Montreal Canadiens and that wouldn’t be a horrible match-up. Sure the Penguins tend to struggle in Montreal, but they would have four games at home. Plus, they have gone 7-3-1 against the Canadiens over the last 3 years, posting a winning percentage of .583. The percentage is a bit more pedestrian if you consider just the last two seasons, which saw the Penguins go 4-2-2 against the Habs. If the Penguins stick to their system and find a way to bring their “A” game, I could see them taking this series in 6 games. It would also be one of the most entertaining first round match-ups if last Thursday was any indication. I don’t think I have enjoyed watching a game that much in eons.

Though Montreal would be a favorable match-up, I don’t think that it is the MOST favorable. Believe it or not, at first glance, a match-up with the Ottawa Senators would appear to be a good one for Pittsburgh. The Penguins posted a .571 winning percentage against the Senators over the last two seasons…seems super! Until you include the stats from last spring’s playoff series, which drops the Penguins winning percentage to .416. I think we should stay away from that one.

The most favorable match-up based on the numbers is actually the Buffalo Sabres. The Penguins have posted a 5-2-0 record against the boys from Buffalo over the last two seasons and seem to have the formula for beating them, at least lately. This match-up would be a very entertaining one for the fans. The teams play a very similar style, one that requires crisp passing and fast skating. I would also love to see Marc Andre Fleury and Ryan Miller duel. If Fleury would happen to falter, Ty Conklin has shown that he thrives on beating his old team.

All of the above aside, I keep drifting back to one team when thinking about the most favorable match-up for the Penguins – The New York Rangers. Sure, the Penguins have posted a 7-3-3 record against the boys in Red, White and Blue, but think of the nostalgia involved. The Penguins have had some classic playoff battles with the Rangers. Think about their first trip back to the playoffs after an extended layoff back in 1988-89 and how amazing it was to watch Mario and the boys knock them off…think Adam Graves and the slash…think about how amazing it would be to watch Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and company compete with Jags, Shanny, Drury and Gomez. Not to mention the battle with trying to solve Hank Lundqvist!

Since you guys made me choose today, I say the Rangers would be the best match-up. The Penguins have shown an ability to beat them, plus there are so many interesting side bars!

As for how the Penguins will fare come the spring race for Lord Stanley…this is another stepping stone season. These Penguins are quickly learning to fly and should be able to earn at least a second round series. I really think that they could make the Conference final if they get a couple of breaks.

Penguins Record Against All 7 Playoff Eligible Teams 2/24/08 (Past Two Seasons)

Team	W	L	T
Montreal	4	2	2
New Jersey	5	7	2
Ottawa	4	2	1
Carolina	3	4	1
NY Rangers	7	3	3
Boston	4	1	2
Buffalo	5	2	0

Jordan Weigler, 2 Man Advantage
When it comes to a good match up for the Penguins in the playoffs I think there is one team by far that would be the most beneficial to have: the Washington Capitals.

Historically the Penguins have not played well against the Southeast Division except the Caps and Thrashers, constantly struggling against the Panther, Hurricanes and Lightning (whose chances of making the post season are getting slimmer). So far this year they also have not done well within the division, making a meeting with any of those teams unfavorable. Though their record is on par with the division, their play against them hasn’t been anything to inspire confidence.

The playoff loss to the Senators is still fresh in peoples minds, in particular how easily they handled the Pens so there is a sense they are looking up at the team that beat them caught in their shadow and their play this year against them still seems to reflect a bit of an inferiority complex. The Maple Leafs at this point won’t be making the playoffs, and the Sabres and the Bruins are teams that can really go either way. You can add the Canadiens in with the teams the Pens just don’t play well against.

That leaves the Capitals who historically and recently the Pens have played well against, with the Pens playoff success against the Caps creating a quasi-rivalry amongst the teams. The Caps are a young an inexperienced team, like the Pens players last year many not knowing what the post season is like. Kolzig is aging, Nylander is out the season and their defense is lackluster. All in all, hope the Pens meet up with them again, and maybe they’ll make it 7 of 8.

I’d expect the Pens to go no further than the second round this year. The defense, though better is still weak and the Pens scoring wingers aren’t exactly top notch, and I think those will hurt the team this playoff again.

CJ “Stoosh” Juiliante, Faceoff Factor
As of the standings on Sat., Feb, 23, the most favorable matchup for the Penguins to me would be the Boston Bruins. In the Eastern Conference, only the Rangers and Islanders have scored fewer goals than the Bruins. Their goaltending has been comparable to the Pens – the B’s have given up 164 goals in 60 games; the Pens have given up 161 in 61 games. I think the balance the Pens would create across the top two, even three lines would pose significant matchup problems for the Bruins’ blueliners. Chara can’t play 40 minutes a night, so at some point, they’re going to have to rely on their second and third pairings to shut down either Malkin’s line or Crosby’s line. And speaking as a fan of the Bruins, the thought of heading into a playoff series with Tim Thomas in net terrifies me.

This Pens team, I think, should realistically get out of the first round and I could certainly envision them making it to the Eastern Conference Finals. At last year’s trade deadline, Shero said the lessons this team would learn about the post-season from Roberts would pay dividends long after Roberts is gone. Well, Roberts is still here and this team is currently playing the way they need to play in the post-season to win. They’ve got an edge and an attitude to their game that only a few players brought to the post-season last year. They’re dictating the play and taking the play to the opposition. They’re physical and they’re playing as if they don’t think there’s a team in the East that can beat them in a seven-game series.

And I think they’re right. I’m not sure there is a team in the East that this Pens team couldn’t beat in seven games. Ottawa is the favorite given the talent on their roster, but there’s something missing there this year. Montreal scares the heck out of me as a Pens fan for some reason – perhaps because they’re playing the same way the Pens are right now. But I think the Pens are right there with each team. This Penguins team seems to know what it needs to do this time around, and just like Shero said last year, I think it’s going to pay huge dividends this spring.