Playing The Waiting Game
Matt Bodenschatz | Pittsburgh Penguins
Apr 21, 11:49 AM | Hype this story!
The Pittsburgh Penguins made quick work of their first round series against the Ottawa Senators, winning the first four games in a total of eight days.
But now the Penguins are forced to sit and wait as the rest of the teams play out their series.
While the time off certainly has been used for personal matters such as family and relaxation, it’s obvious the players also are paying close attention to their possible opponents for round two of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Those potential opponents include the New York Rangers, who eliminated the New Jersey Devils in five games; the Boston Bruins, who have battled the Montreal Canadiens to a game seven tomorrow night; and the Washington Capitals, who trail the Philadelphia Flyers three games to two.
Here’s how it works: the Penguins will play the second lowest ranked team unless the Canadiens lose, in which case the Penguins would play the lowest ranked team.
So, let’s look at the scenarios.
If the Canadiens (1), lose, the Penguins play the Bruins (8), who squeezed into the playoffs, claiming the eighth seed. Their defensive style of play often is boring to watch, but knocking off the extremely talented Canadiens would be a sign that they are a force to be reckoned with.
Now, if the Canadiens win and the third-ranked Capitals lose, the Penguins would play the Rangers (4), who also have a defensive mindset. What separates them from the Bruins is their experience (Jaromir Jagr, Brendan Shanahan, Chris Drury, etc), their goaltending, and Sean Avery. They’re a tough team to play against, as they can win a defensive battle, a high-scoring game, and a physical game.
Lastly, if the Canadiens win and the Capitals (3) win, the Penguins would play the Capitals, one of the hottest teams in the NHL in the second half of the season. Their forte is a strong offense powered by Alex Ovechkin, who has been slowed by the Flyers (6).
If I had to pick who I’d want the Penguins to play most, it surely would be the Capitals, as they just seem to struggle against the “Boys of Winter.”
The Bruins would be my second choice. What are the odds they knock off the top two teams in the Eastern Conference? Then again, if they could tame the top team, they’ll have some momentum going into round two.
The team that worries me the most is the Rangers, who just seem to get into the heads of the Penguins. If Sean Avery could be controlled (or ignored), the Penguins would have a much easier go of it.
I think the Penguins have the talent to beat anyone they play, but winning won’t be nearly as easy as it was against the Senators last week.
While the Penguins certainly aren’t hoping for any one specific opponent, they should be hoping for the Bruins or the Capitals, as facing one of them would require a game seven in the first round.
A tired opponent against a fresh Penguin team could make for an easier (but not necessarily easy) series.
Comments
DaBich
Apr 21, 01:17 PM
I’d really like to play the Bruins next. Second choice would be the Caps. I cannot stand the rags! But if we get them , we get them. Our boys are talented enough to beat them. They need to observe one thing: discipline.
Paul
Apr 21, 02:02 PM
Would rather play:
1) Bruins
2) Caps
3) Rangers
Tom
Apr 21, 03:18 PM
Matt, If I had my choice, it would be the Caps. Their hot season was primarily against weak teams. Because they play in the Southeastern division, they play eight games each with the Bolts, Thrashers, Panthers and Canes, a total of thrity-two easy games in their division —no wonder Ovechkin was the points leader. Aside, Malkin’s points came against far more difficult goalies and defensemen — something to consider when making out that ballot.
To clear up another misconception, the Rangers’ top two lines are not overly large and physical. Only Jagr and Shanahan are large. The others are smaller than the Pens’ forewards and defenders. I have no concept as to why some say our defensemen cannot handle them. Our defenders are not as soft as they are made out to be. Orpik, Gill and Letang are hitters and physical players. It seems that Gonchar is going to add physicality to his position and stick play. The Gonchar/Orpic pairing and the Gill/Letang pairing ought not to have any problem except who gets to hit punk Avery first (take a ticket). That leaves the Scuderi/Whitney pairing. Neither hits and both are slow and weak skaters. The only answer is to limit their ice time. Sydor only offers more of the same inability to defend from strength and speed.
Matt Bodenschatz
Apr 21, 04:23 PM
Tom, the Caps are my pick as well, but the Southeast isn’t as weak as it often is made out to be. Keep in mind that the Hurricanes were bumped out in the last few days of the season, meaning the division was close to having two playoff representatives. Additionally, I saw a report a few weeks back the completely defeated the argument that Ovechkin’s stats have been inflated by playing against the Lightning, Panthers and Thrashers. In fact, the report shows that he has done just as well against non-division opponents.
The report actually was done by FF’s Mike Adams over at LetsGoPens.com a few weeks before the season ended.
“I worked up the numbers. Projecting his totals for this year, he’ll end up with 64+49=113. If you take his scoring rates and apply them to 8 games against Atlantic teams and 4 against SE teams, he’d end up with 63+49=112. Pretty much equal. Here I started out trying to prove you wrong, but I proved you right Wink . It goes against intuition, but the numbers don’t lie. The one unknown is whether his Atlantic rates would go down due to greater familiarity with him by the coaches and goalies. It’s possible, but I doubt it would make a huge difference.”
As for the Rangers, I agree that they aren’t overly physical and that our defense can handle them. Where I am concerned is with their overall team defense game, which has stifled the Penguins throughout the season. The Pens have scored 16 goals in eight games against the Rangers and have given up 21 goals in the same span. Two goals-for per game on average isn’t going to get you too many wins. And, with playoff hockey generally involving even tighter defense, it could be very tough to penetrate Lundqvist and the Blueshirts.
Dabich, the reason for selecting the Capitals ahead of the Bruins is not based on ranking, but rather style of play. The Caps like to play an up-tempo offensive game. The Pens can outscore anyone in the NHL in a shootout. But when things get defensive, the Pens can have some problems — even though they are extremely underrated defensively. The Bruins and Rangers both play a defensive game, meaning I’d prefer to avoid them if possible.
Paul, your list is spot on with mine.
Tom
Apr 21, 09:02 PM
Matt, While Mike’s statistics are interesting, Ovechkin did not have to play against the defensive abilities of the Rangers, Flyers, Devils, Penguins and Islanders eight times each. Regardless of his success rate, his opponents’ defense and goal tending in his eight games apiece in the Southeast was sorry by comparison.
As for the Rangers, outside Lundquist, their defensive lineup is mediocre and largely non-violent. Their top two lines are not backchecking powerhouses. Our problem against the Rangers has been largely a failure to bring the puck up from our zone, giveaways, and allowing them to camp out in our defensive zone and in the crease. The antidote is quick and accurate exit passing or fast carrying of the puck to the neutral zone, avoiding giveaways and clearing the crease. We also need to maintain steady lines and pairings, something that seriously hurt our previous games against the Rangers.
Like the Pens, the Rangers have two credible lines: Straka, Gomez and Jagr; Avery, Drury and Shanahan. Defensing these lines requires some planning of the lines and pairings to oppose them. The word is to play Gill on Jagr and Letang on Straka. If you neutralize their first two lines and move the puck against them, beating Lundquist ought to be far simpler.
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