Faceoff Factor

The Voice of Dissent (Or Reason?)

Mike Adams | Pittsburgh Penguins

Apr 25, 10:10 AM | Hype this story!

In looking at the picks of the Faceoff Factor writers for Round 2, I noticed something very odd. Each and every one of them picked the Pens over the Rangers. Well, except for one lone wolf—yours truly. Am I out to lunch, or is everyone else a homer? We’ll know the answer to that in a couple weeks. But for now, let me explain why I picked the Rangers in this series.

First, let me state that I am not doing it just to rile up all you Penguin fans out there. I can do that plenty well with the game grades. And I am not doing it just to be contrary. I didn’t even know who everyone else had picked when I made my selection. No, I am doing it because I honestly think the Rangers are the one team in the East that could beat the Penguins. I have felt this way long before the playoffs even started, and nothing that has happened thus far has caused me to change my mind. Let’s go area by area and look at who stacks up the best, starting with the most important one.

Goaltending

The Rangers have King Henrik Lundqvist; the Pens counter with Marc-Andre Fleury. In Round 1, both were dazzling. By the numbers, Fleury had the better of it in save percentage (.955 to .917). But Lundqvist faced the far more difficult task. New Jersey at least put forth an honest effort against the Rangers. The same cannot be said for Ottawa against Fleury. Lundqvist has performed superbly against the Pens this year, compiling a .914 save percentage against the dangerous Penguin offense. He was especially stingy on home ice, allowing only 5 goals on 92 shots. For whatever reason, the Pens seem to have had a problem figuring out Lundqvist. Meanwhile, Fleury was even better against the Rangers, with a .929 save percentage.

Advantage: EVEN

Team Offense

The Pens were 7th in the league, the Rangers a disappointing 25th. However, the Rangers outscored the Pens 21-16 in the season series. They averaged only 2.5 goals a game. They have spread their offensive talent out over three lines, while the Pens concentrate theirs on the top two lines (unless Jordan Staal miraculously finds a scoring touch to boost the third line). But there can be no doubt that the Pens do have more offensive firepower than the Rangers, especially with the Hossa acquisition.

Advantage: PENGUINS

Team Defense

Conversely, the Rangers have become the Devils of the late 2000s under Tom Renney. They trap and trap and trap some more, until they frustrate you and force you into mistakes at the bluelines. They were fourth in the league defensively, allowing only 2.32 goals per game. The trapping style covers up a suspect corps of defensemen that is led by Michal Rozsival. The Pens have become a much more solid defensive team under Michel Therrien, and jumped all the way to tenth in this category this season. They have been solid down the stretch. The trade for the USS Hal Gill has really stabilized the pairings.

Advantage: RANGERS

Special Teams

If you just look at the rankings, you’d have to call it about even. On the power play, the Pens were 4th, the Rangers 22nd. Conversely, on the penalty kill, the Pens were 23rd, the Rangers 6th. Again, it’s Penguin offense versus Ranger defense. In the season series, the Rangers won out. Their power play clicked at 21.4 percent against the Pens, while the Pens scored on only 14.3 percent of their man advantage chances against New York.

Advantage: RANGERS

Coaching

While Ray Shero acquired the USS Hal Gill to play against guys like Jaromir Jagr, Therrien has indicated no particular preference for doing so. He seems to prefer Brooks Orpik and Sergei Gonchar to play against the Rangers’ top guns. This could be a huge tactical blunder. It would seem to make more sense to let Gill play against Jagr and not wear Gonchar out playing defense. Renney has also indicated no particular desire to match lines, so Therrien could gain an advantage if he so chooses. But he is not a line-matcher either.

Advantage: EVEN

Intangibles

This is where I think the Rangers have an edge. They have all that Cup-winning experience with guys like Chris Drury, Scott Gomez, Brendan Shanahan, and Jagr. They dealt with at least a little adversity by losing a game to the Devils. The Pens experienced only a moment of adversity when they let a three-goal lead slip away in Game 2, before recovering to win late. But the waltz against the disinterested Senators probably wasn’t enough to prepare them for the onslaught the Rangers will provide.

Advantage: RANGERS

Prediction

I think the experience makes the difference in this matchup of two pretty even teams. I have long thought the Rangers would come out of the East, and I’m not changing that now just because they’re playing the Penguins. I hope I’m wrong, but RANGERS IN 6.