Faceoff Factor

Comments

1. Paul Baxter

   May 19, 03:14 AM

   Excellent analysis. I agree with your analysis, except for the following:

   1) I say there is no way that the Pens re-sign Roberts. I just can’t see it, especially with the need to free up money for younger, more valuable players. Remember, Roberts is an old guy. He just turned 42, just suffered a broken leg a few months ago, and has a recurring problem with asthma/respiratory illnesses. Furthermore, as the past few months have shown, the Pens really don’t need him. Not re-signing Roberts frees up at least $2 million a year.

   2) Also, I can’t see the Pens keeping all three of Beech, Filewich, and Stone. It appears that Filewich is never going to make it with the big Pens after a lackluster 2008-09 season in WBS. Also, Stone appears to have some character issues. He was arrested TWICE this past season for public drunkeness, so my guess is that Pens management may not want to keep him in the organization. If you eliminate 2 of these 3, that frees up at least another $1 million year.

   3) If you eliminate the cost of re-signing Roberts and 2 out of 3 of Beech, Filewich, and Stone, that frees up enough money to re-sign Hossa. I think Hossa will be back, because I think Hossa will want to come back. Where is he going to find another situation in the NHL where he can play alongside a player of Crosby’s calibre? Maybe he makes $6.5 million a year to re-sign with the Pens vs. $7.5 million a year with a lesser team. I say Hossa goes for the slightly lower salary with the Pens to have the better oppotunity to be on Stanley Cup contending teams for the next several years.

2. henkegbgskea

   May 19, 04:50 AM

   For the most part i agree with Andrew…
   Hossa will probably seek money somewhere else its sad but i think in the long run
   good for the pens.
   Hossa is by No means a bad player he has proven that to say the least in the post season!
   But we need to keep Fleury,Orpik and Malone. So bye Hossa.

   I think Vrbata is a better choice then Rolston i may be wrong but Vrbata is younger,cheaper? and righthanded…

   I think Roberts will hang up his skates after this post season. He s a great warrior but time have caught up to him…

   Filewich will hopefully be released…
   He has no future here… at least i dont think so…

   What to do with Ruutu/Laraque ..
   sign one of them/trade one of them or sign both ?

   Trade Gonchar for a top pick in this year draft?
   Sergei is 34 and as good he has been this season i think now is the time to trade to get a good return…..
   I dont see pens trade Whitney for a 1 round pick ?
   But i may be wrong…

   Adam Hall leaving i dont know i think he has done a real good job on the 4 line…
   If Adam leaves then try to get Johan Andersson from Timra IK in swedish elit league.
   He s nearly a copy of Samuel Paulson in Anaheim Ducks.
   You may have seen Johan in WC?
   He has done a great job for the swede team.
   Rumors has it the Red wings are interested in him…
   I think Johan would fit in nicely on pens 4 line and he is a centerman.

   well that was my thoughts have a nice day…

3. DaBich

   May 19, 05:59 AM

   Hey, Henke, how are ya? Good to see ya back…missed your comments.

   All of this is food for thought. A great analysis by Andrew…and more ideas from you guys too.

   It will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

4. Ardel

   May 19, 06:19 AM

   Your analysis is nothing short of idiotic. First, no one spends to the cap. You have to leave a few million room to maneuver when the unexpected occurs. You salaries are also ridiculous? Conklin .75. He’ll get double that. And you just don’t seem to to understand that there are lots of money to spend on UFA’s and a very poor UFA market. UFA’s are going to get big big bucks. Malone will get at least 4-5. Orpik will get at least 3.5 and maybe 4. Rolston at least 4. And Fleury 3? That’s very funny.

   And exactly how are they going to get rid of the Sabourin and Sydor contracts. The NHL has guarenteed contracts, or didn’t you even know that. Given how little knowledge you “analysis” demonstrates, I wouldn’t be surprised.

5. Jonathan Farzalo

   May 19, 06:44 AM

   I think the thing some are not realizing here, or perhaps I’m reading into it, is that this is a “best case” analysis, a “how would i do it in a perfect situation where the pieces fall just right for me”. As i said, that’s how i read it, and in that case, I really can see what is being said, and that I agree with most of it…

6. Eric

   May 19, 07:29 AM

   Who cares about next year, they’re in the cup finals now. Enjoy it while it’s here. Don’t take this for granted no matter how good they could become, there is no guarantee this will happen every year.

7. DaBich

   May 19, 07:42 AM

   Ardel, something YOU haven’t taken into account. A lot of these guys are gonna want to STAY in Pittsburgh, just because they like it,especially Malone. They will sign for less than they could get elsewhere. As for Conklin, he’s lucky to be here as well. He hasn’t had success anywhere else, and he’s certainly NOT getting any younger.
   Play nice, dude.

8. Matt Bodenschatz

   May 19, 07:59 AM

   Paul, nice to see you here at FF. I agree with you in that I think Hossa returns. Call me crazy, but he just seems to be in his glory on this team. He’s said time and again that he wants to play for a winner that is in a hockey town. Does that translate to a paycut? No, but it sure doesn’t scream, “I’m playing for the biggest contract possible.”

   Henke, you have returned! Nice to see you back. I’ll also pick a point of yours that I agree with, and that would be Adam Hall, who I believe would be a nice replacement for Gary Roberts, who I believe will retire at season’s end.

   Ardel, thanks for the comments, despite the condescending nature. As Jonathan said, I too believe this was a “best case scenario” type piece, and one man’s opinion. I’ll agree that, because the free agent market is slim picking this year, salaries will be inflated, but inflated salaries don’t take place if players don’t reach free agency. It’s happened numerous, numerous times, and I believe it will happen with at least a few impending Penguin free agents — and by it, I mean a re-signing before they reach the UFA status. As for getting rid of Sabourin and Sydor and their contracts, have you ever heard of a small thing people refer to as a trade? Sydor is a veteran who has played well this season. There is a team out there that would take him for a draft pick. The same can be said for Sabourin. But isn’t it also true that simply demoting a player to the minors (after clearing waivers) relieves a player’s salary from the cap structure? It would appear you haven’t taken much time to think about anything other than ridiculing this well thought-out piece.

   Eric, good call!

9. Ashley Gallant

   May 19, 09:03 AM

   Hockey isn’t quite like most other professional sports in that a number of players will take a ‘hometown discount’. We could very well see Hossa, Fleury, Malkin and company sign for less money than they would get in free agency just because they want to stay in Pittsburgh on a competitive team.

   I would love to see this team stay pretty much intact come October, but I’m not quite sure that will happen.

   I would love Gary to stick around, but I, too, have a feeling that this is his curtain call. I sure hope that he can win the Cup one more time – a nice little bookend for his playing career.

   [Go Pens]

10. DaBich

    May 19, 09:45 AM

    Ashley, I’m with you on the Cup(again) for Roberts before he calls it a career. He certainly deserves it.

11. Ben Schmidt

    May 19, 11:01 AM

    I’ll be honest – I think one or two players might take discounts, but not nearly as nice as the discounts laid out above.

    Malone at $3.5M per year would be a discount at this point, but that’s one I think is possible.

    Orpik for only $2M per year, though, I find highly unlikely. Other teams are already salivating at the thought of going after Orpik this summer, so I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t at least wait to see how high the bidding goes. He might still decide to give a discount to the Pens, but I think even $3M per year will end up being a discount for Orpik, who, in the current market, could probably command $4M/year.

    Fleury has been outstanding. He’s a #1 overall draft pick, and has now backstopped his team into the Stanley Cup Finals. His comparables in the league are players like Kiprusoff, Brodeur, Nabokov, DiPietro and Luongo (considering players get paid based as much on potential in the Salary Cap era as what they’ve already proven). Fleury will cost no less than $4M/year, and that’s if he decides to give the team a discount.

    On the flip side, though, there are a few players I feel have been overvalued, above. Stone and Filewich, if they even get qualifying offers, won’t get $0.75M deals. Consider that Talbot was already a proven NHL player when he got his current deal, and that only pays an average of $0.675/year. Christensen had proven himself as not only an NHL player but a shootout specialist and a player with a good shot when he was given a $0.75M/year contract. Taffe had more NHL experience than either Stone or Filewich did when he was signed over the summer by Shero, and he got $0.5M deal. Stone and Filewich have yet to prove they can make it in the NHL just yet. I would expect them to get no more than a qualifying offer raise of 10%. Considering they got outperformed by Minard, Smith and James, both in the AHL and in the NHL, Stone and Filewich could very well not even get that.

    As for Roberts, I think there’s a good chance he’ll retire, but if he doesn’t, I’d prefer to see a one-year, incentive-laden contract for him. That helps out with Cap issues, as well as protects against the very real chance that Roberts just might not be able to keep up anymore. He’s been great for the Pens, and I’m glad he’s been on the team, but when it comes to player contracts, one can’t afford to be sentimental in the Salary Cap Era.

12. Andrew R

    May 19, 11:43 AM

    I really think some Pens fans are kidding themselves to think all these players will take less to stay in Pittsburgh, as much as we all want them to. Maybe one will give the Pens a $500k to $1 million break, but not all of them.

    Professional athletes have a relatively limited window to make as much money as they can and, just like anyone making their career, shouldn’t be judged for taking the most lucrative offer available. While some athletes might weigh other factors—prospects for team success, the opportunity to play with other talented players, franchise loyalty—they should generally be considered tiebreakers for comparable monetary offers.

    It has consistently been money and family concerns that most influence a player’s desire to play in any particular location.

    That all being said, I would not be surprised if the Penguins try to resign Hossa to a shorter front-loaded deal, say 3 years for $23 million. Malkin’s extension will not kick in until after next season, and if his deal is backloaded to help offset Hossa’s deal. While it is the average yearly value of the contract that matters for cap purposes, it will help alleviate some of the potential cash flow issues. That is assuming Hossa would be willing to take a shorter deal in his prime, which is a big assumption.

    Malone and Fleury will probably get in the neighborhood of 4.5 million per year, approximately along the lines of Ryan Whitney’s deal. Both should be retained before Hossa, in my opinion. They are homegrown talents, leaders and positive influences. Malone plays a power forward game, is a top penalty killer, and does many of the little things right. Fleury has been lights out since returning from his injury. Those who doubted he could ever develop into a top-flight goaltender now wonder just how high his ceiling might be.

    I do not, however, support the shopping or trade of Sergei Gonchar. He was a Norris Trophy snub this year and I think many Pens fans have not entirely forgotten his Olczyk days or focus too much on his occassional defensive lapses (read: Mike Adams). They fail to realize just how valuable he is on the powerplay and, yes, in his own end. His production this season was significantly more valuable than his $5 million dollar cap hit. His type of talent, offensive/positional defenseman, is one that tends to remain effective even as a player enters his mid to late 30s. Gonchar shouldn’t be going anywhere.

    Roberts should be let go. We all love WWGRD and the veteran prescence he brings. Unless he is willing to take $1 million for 1 year, his body just does not seem to be able to withstand the NHL’s rigors for long stretches of time. Sydor should be shopped for a pick if Brooks Orpick is not resigned. I can certainly see Orpick as a UFA who receives a contract that is much higher than his play dictates he should receive merely because the market for physical defensemen is a buyer’s market.

    Overall, I think the Pens are able to keep all their big names for at least a few more seasons.

13. Andrew Chiappazzi

    May 19, 12:33 PM

    Thank you for commenting so far, everyone. This piece is indeed just one man’s opinion if the chips fall as expected.

    That said, I want to address a couple points.

    We need to enjoy the Finals first, although I really don’t think the Pens will be able to resign Hossa.

    1. Malkin and Staal will be RFAs next year. Even if they are not addressed this year, they need to be addressed soon. I do believe Malkin will likely get signed this year just to avoid him getting the max, something he may do as it is. He’s not getting a discount, that’s for sure. Lots of others have already said he wants a big contract.

    2. Fleury is an RFA this year and is top priority for Shero.

    3. Hossa wants his “last” contract so it’ll be longer and for a lot of money.

    4. And this is the big one…until the revenue changes, the Cap is going to level off. The NHL was surprised that fans came back to the arenas at the pace that they did. So now attendance is where it is, but there’s no new television deal or extra advertisements or anything else where they can get the revenue to boost the cap. It’ll increase some each year, just not at the pace that it started at.

    So while the Pens may be able to work it so they can get guys signed this year, by the time the next couple years work around, they’re going to have to shed some salary. I’d rather avoid that and let Hossa go.

14. Aron

    May 19, 02:07 PM

    Andrew thanks for the story. I agree with everyone that we need to enjoy the cup run. I for one can’t help but think of the future of this team on “off” days. It doesn’t mean we don’t care about the playoffs at hand. It’s fun to look forward and see how the puzzle pieces fit. Malkin, Malone, Fleury, Staal, Dupuis have to be the top priorities. I have them signing for (cap values) Malkin 8.5 (can’t make more than Crosby can he?, Shero won’t allow it)

15. Ted

    May 19, 02:43 PM

    While I respect that you put the work into this, these numbers seem woefully optimistic.

    1) Scuderi’s made a little bit of a name for himself in these playoffs with his solid play. Pencil him in for something close to Eaton’s salary.

    2) Orpik’s that rare defenseman of the sort that is spectacularly overpaid on the UFA market. For instances of this phenomenon, look no further than Darius Kasparaitis, Jay McKee and Vitaly Vishnevski. Expect him to seek closer to $4 mil.

    3) Like it or not, there’s already a precedent in place for newly-blossomed 1st-overall-pick goalie contracts—$5.5 mil per year.

    4) Nashville has set a floor for Malone’s next contract at $4.6 mil. Considering his UFA status and the hype Malone has garnered from figures like Don Cherry and Barry Melrose, he could command considerably more in a bidding war similar to that of Marty Lapointe a few years back.

    For these reasons, I would add another $6.2 million to your cap hit off the bat, which both puts the Pens over the cap limit and prevents them from adding a Crosby linemate. I’m also suspicious of the Staal and Conklin compensation figures, as well as Pittsburgh’s ability to unload Sydor’s contract in any way other than through re-entry waivers.

    Lastly, there is a tendency of other teams to overpay for free agents from cup winners (ex. Penner, Colorado’s role-player cash ins after the 96 cup), which should be factored in as well.

    Personally, I let Malone go and hope Caputi can grow into the role over the next few years. Other than that, I don’t see any easy answers, here.

    Of course, should they win the cup, it’s <i>possible</i> that everyone sits in a room and figures out how they can stay together for another run or two, but I wouldn’t count on it. Actually, I’d bet against it.

16. jon s

    May 19, 08:39 PM

    Ihope they do all they can to keep hosa. I like hall and roberts but they are gone. They should try to move sydor even for a late pick.

    Even at the prospect of malone walking I feel they have to keep hosa. Wheb you land a top 10 player in this leauge in his prime you get ride of the guys who are roll players to do so.

    I am not trying to slam malone in any way but if it comes down to the to I am doing every thing to keep hossa so we still have two power lines.

17. Luke

    May 19, 09:24 PM

    I think you take malone over hossa he will be a little cheaper and is the type of tough strong front of the net player the other key young penguins are not. Ideally we would keep both but I do not see that happening. How would peoples feelings be trying to move say Sykora in an attempt to keep hossa??? and replace him on malkins line with the likes of tyler or some free agent type player. As it stands now sykora is kinda the odd man out on the power play which is where he scored alot of his goals during the season and hossa has really stepped his game up in the playoff and sykora thus far at least has played well but not on the same level.

    As for a large contract for orpik do you think we should keep him. I mean is it the system that works or is it the players i mean orpik a year ago was considered a worthless D-man who could throw a hit but was lost otherwise. He is a physical presence this D needs but just a question for 4 million i think i’d prefer to have him let go but who knows.

    As for taking hometown paycuts perhaps if we give malone a longterm contract say 6-10years we could get him for cheaper thoughts on that? This would guarantee him to stay in his hometown for most if not all of his career and may give him incentive to stay. others i’m not sure will follow suit but winning is what most players want aside from a paycheck hehe

    Oh well lets get that cup and see what happens i’m excited either way bring on the wings

18. DaBich

    May 20, 06:35 AM

    Ron Cook from the Pittsburgh Post Gazette already figures Orpik is gone. Check it out here: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08141/883233-61.stm

    He says it has a lot to do with he and MT not seeing eye to eye.

19. Matt Bodenschatz

    May 20, 07:38 AM

    Ron Cook, for the most part, doesn’t follow hockey all that closely. I believe Orpik is actually on record as saying he wants to return. Regardless, if the Penguins won’t pony up the money, he won’t be staying — and with his spectacular second half + hitting tendencies, he’ll make a pretty penny.

    This offseason is going to be one of the most difficult ones Ray Shero will face, but I think he’ll come through with flying colors, even if we lose some guys we didn’t want to see gone.

20. DaBich

    May 20, 07:47 AM

    I’d like to keep Orpik. But like you said, we can lose some guys and still have a great team.
    I’m going to focus on the Stanley Cup FInals for now.

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