Rumors Link Penguins To Blue Jackets
Matt Bodenschatz | Pittsburgh Penguins
Jun 11, 12:27 PM | Hype this story!
There has plenty of talk going on regarding the situation with the potential unrestricted free agents in Pittsburgh, but this morning, things really seem to be heating up – and in a way not many thought might happen so soon.
I mentioned in my piece titled What Is GM Shero To Do? that, if Ray Shero is unable to sign his big-name free agents – namely Marian Hossa, Ryan Malone and Brooks Orpik – he’d be smart to attempt to trade them so as to gain some kind of a return.
This isn’t a typical method of trading, but with the new CBA and the salary cap limiting activity, we saw the Philadelphia Flyers acquire Scott Hartnell and Kimmo Timonen in this manner last year, starting what could become a new trend.
According to various sources, Shero is indeed working on such a trade, and I’m not quite sure how I feel about it.
Before I get into these rumors, I want to credit the message board posters over at Let’s Go Pens, as that is where I initially was tipped off on the issue.
So, now, here is what is floating around:
Aaron Portzline, a respected writer of the Columbus Dispatch, wrote yesterday evening that the Blue Jackets might be willing to help out the Penguins and went so far as to say that the general managers of the teams have had preliminary discussions.
“The discussions have involved Pittsburgh trading the rights to one or two of their pending unrestricted free agents — players the Penguins have decided they can’t keep because of the salary cap — to the Blue Jackets for draft pick or player compensation.”
Portzline speculated that the Blue Jackets likely would send draft picks as compensation most likely for Malone and/or Orpik.
This morning, he updated his story.
“What would they have to give up? Hard to say. Some have asked if it would take the No. 6 and No. 19 picks. No way. Pittsburgh would jump all over that. They’d probably throw Ryan and Brooks in the car and drop them off at Nationwide to get that deal. Howson would never do that. I don’t think Howson would even give up the No. 6 by itself. At most it would cost Columbus the No. 19.”
Eric Smith, who covers the Blue Jackets for HockeyBuzz.com, added to the story.
“I don’t normally put out a ton of trade rumours on my blog (I leave that up to Ek),” he wrote, “but this rumour is being swirled around and it makes sense. The Jackets would get negotiation rights to Ryan Malone and Brooks Orpik for the #19 pick.”
Lastly, Lyle Richardson of Spector’s Hockey weighed in on the issue and had the following to say.
“Would Malone consider accepting a trade to Columbus after having played in the Stanley Cup final, or is he more interested in playing for a contender or even accepting less than market value to remain a Penguin? And don’t forget, there are other players on the Pens who are unrestricted free agents so the Jackets might not have their eye on Malone and Orpik.”
Okay, so with that behind us, let me do some explaining of how this sort of trade works out.
If Team A is unable to re-sign a player, it may try to trade that player to Team B. But why would Team B trade for a player it can just sign as a free agent on July 1? To get exclusive negotiating rights until July 1, thus getting a head-start on signing the player.
Now, what also must be mentioned is that these trades typically have a conditional clause in them that changes the trade if the player does not sign with Team B.
So, in this case, if Pittsburgh trades Malone to Columbus for the 19th draft pick, the Penguins would receive that pick only if Malone is signed by Columbus. If he does not sign, Pittsburgh would get something more along the lines of a sixth or seventh rounder. This is in place to prevent a team from trading a player for a first rounder, then re-signing him July 1.
Now, let’s analyze what these rumors are suggesting.
First off, I must say that, while I don’t doubt Shero and Columbus GM Scott Howson have had preliminary talks, I do doubt that they were of any substance at this point.
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette is reporting that Malone’s agent started contract negotiations with Shero Monday. Two days is a short time for Shero to draw the conclusion that he will not be able to re-sign the Pittsburgh native.
But, if that is his conclusion at this point, Richardson’s note that Malone may not accept a trade to Columbus is meaningless. He has no choice in where he goes in a trade. Then again, he does have the option to refuse to sign with Columbus, thus making the trade relatively useless, aside from the very late conditional pick(s) that likely would be involved.
With that being said, maybe the initial talks between GMs was with regards to Orpik, whose agents hasn’t yet discussed a new contract with Shero. Maybe Orpik has stated he won’t return?
I think it’s clear what I’m getting at: everything, at this point is pure speculation, as no quotes from team officials have accompanied this writings.
Personally, I think Shero will end up dealing at least one of his top three unrestricted free agents for some sort of compensation. But I think, at this point, it’s just too early for anything of this nature to happen.
Before Shero can come to terms for a trade, he must first negotiate with player agents to reach the conclusion that players are unsignable. Since Shero just started negotiations, it would seem we’re at least a week – and more like two weeks — away from any such moves.
Even so, I’ll keep a close eye on this story and will bring any updates as they are made available.
Comments
Ben Schmidt
Jun 11, 12:57 PM
Here’s another thing to consider with rumors: just because two teams talk about something, doesn’t mean that it is imminent – or even that it will happen.
Here’s a scenario that’s quite likely:
It’s quite possible that several teams (and not just the Blue Jackets) look at the Penguins’ situation and realize that they can’t sign everyone. So they make offers of helping them out. Shero says, “we’ll keep you under consideration if we can’t re-sign them ourselves.” Someone inside the Blue Jackets organization says something about how they talked with Shero to Portzline. Presto – rumor is born.
Honestly, Shero is wise to keep his options open. He’ll try to re-sign them first, and if not, well, he now has the option to at least get something for them in return instead of absolutely nothing. Sounds like a good fallback to have, really.
TIM
Jun 11, 01:11 PM
Interesting read Matt. I too think it’s way to early for Shero to make his mind up about who he can and can’t sign. And Ben is right, always good to keep options open. It is better to get something than nothing.
Matt Bodenschatz
Jun 11, 01:13 PM
Very valid point, Ben. I don’t have a doubt in my mind these two GMs talked, but I’d put money that the conversation was initiated by Howson of Columbus and that Shero did more listening than talking.
Pens1967
Jun 11, 02:54 PM
If you read Liut’s comments in the P-G this morning, he sounds more than willing to negotiate with Shero.
Second, before any team gives up something to acquire exclusive negotiating rights for a player, that team has to have a good idea it can actually sign the player or else the team is essentially left with egg on its face.
In the case of Timonen and Hartnell last year, the Flyers already knew they could and were going to sign them to deals. IIRC, the Flyers had tried to trade for one or both prior to that. Columbus has no idea if either Orpik or Malone would want to sign with them, which I doubt either would. After playing for the Stanley Cup, do you think either would be happy playing for a team that figures to have a tough time even making the playoffs next year?
I don’t.
I wouldn’t say it’s a high probability, but we can’t rule out the possibility that this story is a negotiating ploy on the Pens’ part to say: “see, there are worse things than taking less money to stay in Pgh”.
Matt Bodenschatz
Jun 11, 03:09 PM
See, to me, I got more of a sense from Liut that he’s more than willing to wait it out. And, in my opinion, if Malone makes it to July 1, he’s as good as gone, as there will be a team out there offering him above-market value.
But it’s interesting how two people can read the same article and come away with two opposing viewpoints. It makes it fun.
Dabich
Jun 11, 04:12 PM
Well, darnit, all I have to say it, I HOPE THEY SIGN MALONE!
But you already knew that lol.
Pens1967
Jun 11, 05:52 PM
On 1250 radio, Laird read a story from the Columbus Dispatch that said the “preliminary talks” involved two players but no one knows which two players. So Malone and Orpik’s names are speculation, perhaps of the wishful variety.
Pens1967
Jun 11, 10:06 PM
NHLnumbers.com has been updated and it turns out the Pens have the 5th most cap space in the NHL (22.56M) which includes Crosby’s 8.7M hit and Malkin’s 3.84M . Columbus (28.8), Atl (25.49), Colo (25.1) and LA (22.6) have more space.
henkegbgskea
Jun 12, 06:12 AM
well i hav som questions to u all…
Since i dont see myself as an expert at all but its fun share your thoughts and speculate some what… =)
If pens trade Malone to Jackets for a first round pick , no 19 would that be bad?
I mean i hopa Hossa resigns and if i have to chosse i take Hossa every day of the way over Malone.
Noc if wet get draft pcik no 19 my hoper are we draft forward Mathias Tedenby from HV71 Sweden or defenceman Colton Teubert(spelling?)
If we have to throw Orpik in the mix to get no 19 well i would be more uncertain… i feel Jackets have to give up more if they want both Orpik AND Malone otherwise Penguins gets robbed !
My suggestion in that scenario:
Klesla for Orpik, wishful thinking?
or Marc Methot young defenceman who can start in WBS to develop and pens can also then sign UFA Commodore. Both Methot and Commodore are cheaper then i feel Orpik will be for the pens.
well u tell me if i am totally wrong?
=)
Matt Bodenschatz
Jun 12, 09:45 AM
Henke, think of it this way. If Malone (or Orpik or Hossa) is dealt, it’s because Shero knows he won’t be able to re-sign him. So, if he can’t re-sign him and he is going to leave for nothing on July 1, in my opinion, anything is a good return — so long as it’s not something that isn’t needed or a player who is going to hurt the team. So, to answer your question, yes, a 19th overall pick is a very nice return for an impending free agent.
To continue, Henke, you have to look at a Malone/Orpik trade in the same light as I mentioned above. The only reason to trade is to avoid losing them for nothing. So if all Columbus is willing to trade is a 19th for both, I’m of the belief it’s a much better return than watching them walk away on July 1 and sign with another team with no compensation coming to the Penguins.
Lastly, don’t expect a player of any name value coming to the Penguins, as the idea for Columbus would be to improve their team. Trading for an impending free agent is a relatively desperate move to improve your team right now. So, with that being said, the return likely will be draft picks and/or prospects.
Groove
Jun 12, 05:50 PM
When can we reasonably expect to hear some sort of official announcement or contract news. All this speculation that is out there is just that-speculation. I would like to think that by the draft we should be hearing something and before July 1 for sure. Am I at least in the ballpark for a timeframe?
Matt Bodenschatz
Jun 13, 10:01 AM
Groove, sorry for the delayed response. I would say that contract information could begin to be leaked at any point now. The draft begins one week from today, so one would expect that, if Shero plans to make a trade involving one or several of his impending free agents he is unable to sign, he will try to wrap up contract talks with some of the players soon.
Several points to keep in mind:
- Malkin and Staal are under contract for one more year and won’t become RFA’s until July 1, 2009, meaning they are not top priority at the moment.
- Hossa, Malone, Orpik and a few other role players are eligible to become unrestricted free agents July 1 of this year — which is just over two weeks away. I presume that, if any of them are not signed by July 1, the chances of their return are significantly reduced. I would go so far as to say that waiting until ater July 1 would put them at a 25 percent chance to return, if not lower.
- Lastly, Fleury is a restricted free agent July 1 of this year. While he can’t actively seek a new home as an RFA, GMs of other teams certainly can try to steal him away from the Penguins by signing him to an offer sheet. And, believe me, there are multiple GMs salivating at this opportunity. If Shero wants to keep his salary structure in tact, he’s going to want to get MAF signed before July 1 as well — or he could risk losing Fleury to another team or paying Fleury much more than he originally planned in order to match an offer sheet he was signed to.
I hope this all makes sense.
Alex
Jun 13, 06:12 PM
Matt, I have read your site once or twice before, but I just have to say that this article was very sensible and sheds some good light on the Malone situation. Thanks for mentioning us at LGP.
I linked you on my blog, if that’s good with you, which you can find by clicking on my name.
Keep up the good posts.
Matt Bodenschatz
Jun 14, 01:17 AM
Thanks Alex, the link has been reciprocated.
Commenting is closed for this article.