How Realistic Is A Malone Trade?
Matt Bodenschatz | Pittsburgh Penguins
Jun 16, 12:55 PM | Hype this story!
Aaron Portzine of the Columbus Dispatch has paid close attention to the Penguins’ contract negotiations, with a focus on forward Ryan Malone.
In his most recent blog entry, Portzine wrote, “It’s all up to Pittsburgh Penguins winger Marian Hossa now.”
Hossa apparently was offered a seven-year contract in the $50 million range. If he accepts, it’s all but certain Malone will be wearing a new uniform next season.
But how likely is it that he will be traded?
Lyle Richardson of Spector’s Hockey this morning wrote, “As for Malone, he’s definitely about to become a hot commodity if Hossa is re-signed by the Pens and the Jackets apparently could be among the frontrunners.”
In the past, trading for impending free agents wasn’t common practice, but with the new salary cap structure, a shortage of high-end free agents, and the success of a similar type deal between the Flyers and Predators last summer, it would seem we could be witnessing a new trend.
While Malone may not be the most productive player statistically in this summer’s free agency pool, he does bring plenty of intangibles, including toughness and heart, that could make him one of the most sought-after players.
Because of that, it would seem interest from general managers seeking a trade could be significantly higher than what many originally thought.
At this point, there are two types of trades that could be made: one for a draft pick, or one for a player.
Rumors initially had the Blue Jackets willing to trade a first rounder for Malone, but Portzine wrote in his update: “I’ve heard Dan Fritsche, straight up, and I’ve heard a second- or third-round draft pick.”
Fritsche is an interesting player. He’s 22 and just finished his third NHL season. He had 22 points last year and 27 the year before, but apparently has the potential to make some noise in the future.
There also are rumors circulating that the Oilers and Wild are working toward trading for Malone. While no possible returns were mentioned, it is believed the Oilers would be looking to send a roster player to the Penguins.
One player from those teams who would be most appealing is Oilers forward Raffi Torres, who apparently could be available for trade.
Torres played in just 32 games last season after suffering a major injury, but his style of play would seem to be a perfect replacement for Malone, though his point production is slightly lower.
If these teams — and potentially others — are interested, a bidding war could work in the Penguins favor.
Even so, don’t look for the return to be anything spectacular. If the bidding gets too high, teams simply will opt to wait until July 1, when they can have their pick of the litter without giving up any assets.
Comments
Pens1967
Jun 16, 04:30 PM
I’m far from a cap expert, but my little spreadsheet shows the Pens could fit Malone, Orpik, Fleury and Malkin under the cap even with Hossa at 7M. Malone will have to decide if he wants a chance to compete for another Stanley Cup sooner rather than maybe never or he wants more than 3.5M (a 2+M raise from this year I might add) I anticipate the Pens could afford to offer.
Further, I don’t think Portzine is doing anything more than reguritating rumors that have been swirling about on message boards and blogs since “everyone” decided the Pens can’t afford to keep all their key players. He just reports them with a CBJ twist. It’s like if he says it enough times, it will become true.
Last, IIRC, the Flyers had already pretty much worked out deals with Nashville, Hartnell and Timonen before the Preds traded their rights to Philly. There was almost no chance those two players weren’t going to sign with the Flyers. This isn’t the case with Malone. There’s no reason in the world for him to sign with Columbus when he can wait for offers from teams that will actually make the playoffs next year.
Matt Bodenschatz
Jun 16, 04:55 PM
I don’t think that the issue is not being able to afford him as much as it is thinking he’s not worth what he’s asking for and that down the line, when other players (Letang, Talbot, etc) need raises, problems may arise.
I don’t care what you can afford, if a player isn’t worth the money, you don’t pay him that just to keep him there.
As for Portzine, I’m starting to get that impression as well, though he has added some interesting insight that others haven’t. Regardless, if rumors are correct, the Jackets are stepping in the right direction and could have a decent team in the near future. Regardless, Malone, I think, is proving he’s not as much about winning as he is about the money, seeing as how he’s asking for a ridiculous amount (rumored to be $5 mil +).
I suppose we’ll wait and see, but if a trade like this happens, it’s likely going to be a conditional trade that allows the Penguins to retain the acquired assets only if Malone signs with his new team.
Pens1967
Jun 16, 05:44 PM
Matt, I agree about Malone’s worth. He’s a nice player, a 20 goal scorer, but also one who’s played with arguably the top 2 centers in the NHL the last several years. You might even say Malone underachieved considering Lemieux made a 40 goal man out of Warren(?)Young. :) I don’t see him worth more than 3.5 max. And, the fact is, if he signed for 3.5, that’s TRIPLE the 1.2M he made last year. If he wants that extra 1.5M a year and no championship, it’s his choice, but that not should not be portrayed as related to Hossa signing a deal with Pgh.
As for Portzine, I believe the source of the Hossa contract numbers is the website “Buzz on the Burgh”, now known as “The Insider on Pgh Sports”. I’m not that familiar with the site or blogger, but the regulars on LGP and Pens Blog give it almost no credibility.
Eric
Jun 16, 06:04 PM
Matt hit the nail right on the head about only paying players what they are worth. I think that’s the impression I’m starting to get here with Malone. I think if the Penguins can’t sign him, then they should listen to any and all trade offers to get something for him.
At least the next few weeks will be interesting.
Pens1967
Jun 16, 06:19 PM
Frankly, I think everything is on hold until the Pens get an answer from Hossa.
Matt Bodenschatz
Jun 16, 09:14 PM
Eric, I agree.
Pens, I agree.
How about that?
Okay, so to expand, I think, to an extent, Hossa’s contract has a bit to do with Malone — maybe not in 2008-09, but beyond, when others need re-signed. So in an indirect way, it is Hossa’s contract, though it would be the role players who actually push it over the edge.
But, ultimately, it has more to do with Malone being a $3.5 million player, not a $5+ million player. It’s obvious the Pens are willing to offer money to players they feel are worth it. I think this is a clear indication management does not feel Malone is worth that much and that he is easily replaceable.
Personally, I agree on both accounts, to an extent. Obviously, Malone played a huge role in this team’s success. Unfortunately, it had more to do with a willingness to take a beating and leadership than with his actual skills. His skills can be replaced, his intangibles might not be so easy.
Dabich
Jun 17, 04:55 AM
OK, so is there anything tangible at this point as to how much Malone wants? Or that he is balking at 3.5 million? Anything at all?
Matt Bodenschatz
Jun 17, 07:45 AM
Nothing tangible as far as numbers are concerned, but there have been several tidbits in the Pittsburgh papers stating that the two sides are pretty far apart. The speculation comes into play with the numbers, but some pretty credible sources say $3.5 million is what he has been offered, and that is what he wanted at the All Star break — it’s also a three times his current salary. The same sources also say he is looking for much more and that there are teams ready to pony up $5 million. But, no, the numbers aren’t exactly tangible.
Pens1967
Jun 17, 08:27 AM
Save the news, which I also viewed as credible, that Malone wanted 3M/year at the All-Star break, everything else is speculation.
Rossi has never put numbers out in either print or on air, but the former “buzz on the burgh” (currently: “the insider on pittsburgh sports”) blog has. I believe they are the one and only source reporting numbers. All the other reports I’ve seen from Portzine to Mirtle are using those speculative numbers and feeding off each other’s reports for credibility. I do not believe ANY of the main stream print reporters have looked in to the reliability of the original source reporting.
Matt Bodenschatz
Jun 17, 09:19 AM
Pens1967, I don’t read Insider on Pittsburgh Sports and I never read Buzz on the Burgh, so what I am hearing isn’t coming from that source. The speculation guys like Portzine and Mirtle are making available appear to be based on private “off the record” conversations with league and team officials. I know little about Portzine, though I have heard nothing but good about him. Mirtle, on the other hand, is a class act journalist, and when he says something, you can take it to heart. The numbers he suggests very likely are accurate.
Dabich
Jun 17, 09:43 AM
I know I’m wishing for miracles, but I find it hard to believe Bugsy wants %5 million to stay in Pittsburgh. He can’t be so stupid as to know realize the situation with Hossa plays a huge part in every contract at this point. Surely he’s worth $3.5 million?
Matt Bodenschatz
Jun 17, 09:53 AM
He’s worth $3.5 million, no doubt. The question is, is he worth more than $3.5 million? I don’t think he’s necessarily seeking $5 million from the Penguins. What I think we’re seeing is a firm stance from the Penguins in offering him a take it or leave it contract. I think, from Pittsburgh, he’s probably looking for something like $4-$4.25 million from the Pens, and they just aren’t willing to pay that.
Pens1967
Jun 17, 10:17 AM
Matt, this was posted on 6/5/08 at TIOPS:
———————-
“ On the Marian Hossa front, I continue to hear that there is a strong interest from both sides to get a deal done before the draft. Sources I talked to this week indicated Marian “really” wants to stay in Pittsburgh and would love to have the opportunity to play in the Penguins new building which will open in 2010. # I’ve been hearing for a few weeks that the Penguins are prepared to make a 7 year – 45 million offer by the end of next week. The two sides are expected to work off of that offer and I might be in the minority right now but from all the information I’ve been gathering the past couple weeks…”
———————-
I’m pretty sure all the other blog speculation is based on this initial report, but I have no idea how credibile that blog is.
I agree with the assessments of Malone’s monetary value to the Pens – 3-3.5 max.
Matt Bodenschatz
Jun 17, 11:01 AM
Pens1967, I would say quite the contrary. From what I understand, TIOPS is like an Eklund from Hockeybuzz. They throw crap on a wall and hope it sticks. Conversely, the others mentioned earlier — Portzine and Mirtle — are professionals in the business who truly have inside sources and connections. My guess is that TIOPS is getting their information from guys like Portzine and Mirtle and piecing together “original” stories this way.
I just find it hard to believe that anyone would read TIOPS and take it as anything more than tabloid-type read for entertainment purposes. I highly doubt Mirtle or Portzine even know the site exists, let alone are using it to put together professional writing pieces.
Bob Roberts
Jun 17, 11:15 AM
The money is a big factor when it comes to signing a contract, but when it comes to hockey I think THE big factor is the chance to skate around the ice holding that cup over your head. It’s why players give the legendary “hometown discount”, they say, but remember that the weekly paychecks end at the end of the regular season. They just love to play like we who don’t have their gifts love to watch. Would they play for nothing — for the love of the game? Maybe not. But if they can possibly do it, the ’07-‘08 Pens players will be back to have that chance at the cup next year. Malone included.
Matt Bodenschatz
Jun 17, 11:28 AM
I sure hope you’re right, Bob, but I certainly haven’t seen too many cases of players taking significantly lower than market value to stay with a team. The NHLPA severely frowns upon it, as it lowers the values of similar players. I sure hope it happens, though.
Dabich
Jun 17, 01:13 PM
What does Peter Sykora make? Just curious.
Pen1967
Jun 17, 01:19 PM
Matt, I have no disagreement with your assessment of the various sources and reporters. I’m just suspicious because there’s been a paucity of information coming from regular beat writers like Molinari and Rossi who should have better info and sources than any of the out-of-towners.
Pen1967
Jun 17, 01:20 PM
Sykora’s making 2.5M, Dabich.
Dabich
Jun 17, 05:33 PM
Then 3.5M for Malone is generous. Thanks PEN1967 =D
Tom
Jun 17, 06:44 PM
Matt et al, Malone is probably worth $4M to $4.5M short term (2 years). We have or are about to understand overpayment (Whitney) long term. I should think that $3.5M is generous for a long-term contract for a one year wonder whose skill is crashing the net with linemates as great as Malkin and Sykora. Surely GMs from other teams are as aware as I of his situation. Any team with lesser linemates who gifts him with $5M long term is an idiot who will overpay for a good but not great player.
I have posted my little pay estimates against the cap. I believe that it will hold true. Malone can and I believe will take a short term $4M+ contract and remain a Pen. Alternatively, he is traded for a prospect or draft choice (packaged with Sydor hopefully). The saved funds can be used to seek a helpful free agent or help keep some of the present team intact. I should trade the rights to Malone, the rights to Conklin, Whitney, Sabourin, Sydor and Scuderi for two top ten draft choices. I find Schenn and Bogosian fascinating. I believe that Caputo, CPZ and Jeffrey can play the Malone role. CPZ and Jeffrey are great net crashers. Our first two lines need that particular skill. If Malone and Roberts leave, only Laraque and Staal can crash the net with great effect
Pens1967
Jun 17, 07:34 PM
Personally, I just don’t see anything happening with Malone until Hossa decides one way or the other if he wants what the Pens are offering.
Matt Bodenschatz
Jun 17, 08:53 PM
Tom, regarding Malone, just look at free agency history pre and post lockout. There are plenty of teams just waiting to make big offers to Malone. As for staying in Pittsburgh, Malone was quoted today as saying he will test the free agent market. He wants a longterm deal worth big money. Why take a shorter deal worth less money when this could be his only realistic chance to cash in?
As for your continued fascination with acquiring not one, but two, top ten draft picks by means of trading Conklin, Sabourin, Whitney, Sydor and Scuderi (three of which you have bashed time and again for being less than good), it’s a pipe dream to say the least. Shero isn’t acquiring a single first rounder, let alone two in the top ten, let alone with a motley crew that has one player (Whitney) who would be attractive to other teams.
Caputu is good, but his skating isn’t up to the NHL standard yet. I doubt he’ll be in the NHL to start the season, as most have him pegged as being at least a year away. CPZ isn’t even remotely ready, and Jeffrey is interesting, but also not ready. These players, along with Goligoski, need time to develop. There is absolutely no reason to force feed them into the NHL. None.
Tom
Jun 18, 03:24 AM
Matt, If Malone goes, both top lines need a net crashing, physical left winger. Perhaps Staal as one. I am not particularly hopeful that any of the Baby Pens who made the trip to the NHL last season are the answer. I believe that Dustin Jeffrey (actually a center) is the most Malone like of the bunch. He is big and has room to grow. He is an intimidating player who played well in last season’s training camp. He may not be ready, but may still be the Pens’ best choice for OJT. He seems to have the tools. However, until Malone is gone (I still believe that he may not be the hot commodity he and his agent think) I still believe that he may accept a reasonable long term contract with the Pens or a higher short term opportunity to increase his value. Before last year he was not a consistent player. I do not see him getting $5M long term from anyone.
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