Faceoff Factor

Would you trade a down season or two for a dynasty?

Ben Schmidt | Pittsburgh Penguins

Jun 18, 05:30 PM | Hype this story!

Ever since the Stanley Cup Final ended, the Free Agency situation of the Pittsburgh Penguins has been a hot topic for hockey writers and newscasters all over. The general consensus seems to be that it won’t be possible in a Salary Capped League, for the Penguins to be able to afford to keep a competitive team together while still retaining all the top talent they have. Crosby, Malkin, Hossa, Staal, Whitney, Fleury – something has to give. Or rather, be given away.

Most of the speculation is centered around the assumption that if and when the Penguins sign all of the above players, they won’t have much space for anyone else on the team. They would be fairly top-heavy, without a lot of supporting players. There is some truth to that, but watching the reports from newspapers, I have started to notice a pattern, and have been pondering an interesting possibility.

Crosby is currently signed through the 12/13 season. Whitney is signed through the 12/13 season as well. Malkin has said he wants a 5-6 year contract extension, which would keep him on the team through the 13/14 or 14/15 seasons. The reports are that Hossa is being offered a 7 year contract, which would make him a Penguin through the 14/15 season. It’s hard to believe that Fleury would be offered anything short of a five year deal as well, at this point. That’s an awful lot of the best talent and skill on the team tied up for the next 5 years, minimum. What if Shero is looking more at the long-term instead of just next year?

This is purely a mental exercise – it’s all speculation, but please bear with me. What if the Penguins did re-sign Hossa to a 7 year deal, Fleury to a 5 year deal, and Malkin to a 5 year deal? Cap space would be tight for next season. Very tight. It would probably necessitate using a lot of cheap players who are either rookies or past-their-prime veterans to fill in most of the spaces. The team could very likely not be a Stanley Cup contender next season. But what happens if the Salary Cap continues to rise?

All indications are that the Cap will continue to rise for another few seasons at least. A new Canadian television contract takes effect next year, which will increase revenues for the League, impacting the 09/10 Cap. Ticket prices are the backbone of League revenue, and the chances of those not rising are miniscule. Third Jerseys are supposed to make a comeback next season, which will most likely translate to additional merchandising revenue. In short, there are good reasons to believe that the Cap will continue to raise, quite possibly by as much as $3-4 million per year.

In just two years the Penguins will still have all of their top talent, but a considerable amount more Cap space, since their most expensive players will already be locked up in non-renegotiable contracts. At that point, they’ll still be looking to primarily add in support players, rather than top players, so they won’t be looking to add in very many (if any) large contracts. This will be a timeframe when some of the top prospects in the system will be genuinely ready for NHL action, to boot, so there will still be a few cheap contracts on the books. All while most of their best players are just starting to enter their prime.

I don’t know about anyone else, but that sounds like the makings of a dynasty to me. It would mean potentially having a couple years of maybe not making it very far in the playoffs (though with a core of Crosby, Malkin, Hossa, Staal, Fleury and Whitney, who knows?) But the long-term payoff could be substantial. I can’t help but wonder if Ray Shero might not be thinking in those terms as well.

I also can’t help but wonder if this is the very scenario that drives all the doom and gloom predictions around the League – I think there are quite a few people out there who would much rather believe that the Pens can’t keep everyone together, because the thought of a Penguins dynasty centered around the talent they already have would not make it easy to think well about their preferred teams’ chances.