The Penguins/Lightning Comparison
Mike Adams | Pittsburgh Penguins
Jun 23, 09:51 AM | Hype this story!
Many people are comparing the Penguins of today to the Tampa Bay Lightning of 2003-04, and coming to the conclusion that the Pens would be better off not following the Lightning model. While I agree that you don’t want to descend into oblivion like the Lightning did, I disagree with the reason most people cite for their fall from grace.
Most observers (like Empty Netters today) say that the Lightning dimmed because they signed the so-called Big Three to outrageous long-term contracts, thus preventing them from building a deep roster that is required of Cup contenders. After winning the Cup, the Lightning did indeed ink Vincent Lecavalier, Brad Richards, and Martin St. Louis to large contracts. In addition, they also locked up defenseman Dan Boyle. So it was more of a Big Four than a Big Three. While it’s true that the contracts of these four players did eat up a considerable portion of the Lightning’s payroll, is this the real reason they have struggled of late?
I say no. And I have a trivia quiz for you to demonstrate why. What do the following players have in common?
Nikita Alexeev
Alexandr Svitov
Adam Henrich
Mike Egener
Andy Rogers
Vladimir Mihalik
Riku Helenius
I’m sure you draft-watchers out there know the answer. These are the first players selected by Tampa Bay in each draft between 1999 and 2006. Okay, to be fair, they traded their first-rounders in 2002 and 2003, so Henrich and Egener were actually second-rounders. But the failure in the draft is hard to fathom. Well, unless you followed Craig Patrick’s follies in the mid and late 90s, that is. Nobody they took with their first picks in that period has become even a marginal NHL player.
In fact, if you look at all the players Tampa Bay drafted in that period, there are really only three or four who have made any impact at all in the NHL. Paul Ranger is a solid defenseman. Nick Tarnasky is a third/fourth line type. And Kari Ramo and Fredrik Norrena are backup goalies. That’s it. Six drafts, four barely serviceable NHL players. That is just horrendous.
And, folks, that is where the depth comes from—the draft. If you don’t draft well, you are not going to have long-term success. Look at the Penguins earlier this decade after the horrible drafts of the late 90s. You can blame finances all you want, but had they drafted better, they would have had cheap young talent to replace the stars they were forced to sell off. Now, it worked out well in the end with lots of top picks, but I doubt that’s the way Patrick intended it when he was drafting the likes of Konstantin Koltsov and Milan Kraft in Round 1.
So the thought that the Penguins don’t want to be like the Lightning is true, but for the wrong reason. It is not the inking of several top players to big contracts that gets a team in trouble. It’s the failure to draft and develop players that will haunt you and eventually bring you down. On that count, the jury is still out on Ray Shero. We won’t know for several years whether or not he has been successful in developing a strong flow of talent into the Penguins from below. In the end, that is what he will be judged on. The Pens could survive if they are able to sign Marian Hossa (a remote possibility, if you ask me), but only if they become the anti-Lightning and draft and develop the next wave of players.
Comments
Dabich
Jun 23, 11:37 AM
Great opinion, Mike. I disagree with one thing only: The Pens WILL survive without Hossa. They will be fine one way or the other.
Julian
Jun 23, 03:46 PM
Lightning had two other problems:
goaltending- they didn’t lock up Khabibulin
ownership- they didn’t spend to the cap
My biggest concern is the Pens defense. It is good enough for the East, but compared to a western team, it is pretty weak.
Tom
Jun 23, 09:05 PM
Julian, The Pens’ defense suffers from two problems: speed and aggressiveness or, rather, the lack thereof. Gonchar was aggressive in the playoffs only to a degree and is a fast skater. Orpik (if the Pens retain him is aggressive and an adequate skater. Letang is both extremely fast and aggressive. However, three is not enough. Whitney and Sydor are useless as defenders but are paid huge salaries. Scuderi is still at best a sixth defenseman. He is slow, unaggressive, a positional shot blocker, but not a fast aggressive defender. Gill can clear the crease but is so slow that he must remain in position and can never be truly aggressive. Eaton is always injuried and is a skilled version of Scuderi. Goligoski is fairly fast but is the picture of thin and unaggressive. Without strong backchecking and the trap this is a weak unit. You have every reason to feel some trepidation faced with such talent. The loss of Orpik would be a disaster. Fast, aggressive defensemen are rare in the system. Maybe Grant from the last draft? Bolster the defense and the Pens can rate amoun the ruiners of hockey. This is an area where Hossa will truely be missed. He is a great backchecker. Malone was a fine defender as well. The Pens really need to expend some salary cap in finding aggressive, fast skating defenders who defend.
Michael
Jun 23, 11:44 PM
I think we need a coach who will allow the Penguins to play to their strengths.
We could have beaten the Red Wings if we’d been more agressive and creative on offense.
Therrien has this team being way too conservative. You can’t beat the Red Wings by being conservative and waiting for them to make mistakes. They DON’T make mistakes, and they don’t give you any room. You have to__create__offense against Detroit. You have to be creative and agressive on offense against a team like that. You need to activate your defensemen to jump-up into the play on offense .. something Therrien never allowed Letang or Whitney or Gonchar to do. Therrien always has everyone laying back, and he has everyone dumping the puck into the corner and going to the bench. That doesn’t cut it in the playoffs. In the playoffs against a team like Detroit, you need to always be looking to make plays to creat scoring chances .. always. Dumpimg the puck into the corner and going to the bench just kills time. That’s not going to generate enough scoring chances. You aren’t going to get many scoring chances against Detroit, so you have to always be looking to be creative in making a play to set up a scoring chance .. like moving into holes .. like going to the net to set a screen .. like getting into an open spot .. things like that .. NOT dumping the puck into the corners and around the perimeter. That’s COACHING’s fault. That’s Therrien being too conservative. You can’t beat a team like Detroit by playing like that.
The Penguins need to be creative and agressive, but Therrien won’t allow them to do that. They at least should have Letang, Whitney, and Gonchar .. and Goligoski .. jump up into the play on offense .. because those guys have that kind of talent to do that. I see what Therrien did to Letang. He has Letang totally afraid to use his offensive talents. He has Letang being ultra-conservative .. which is just stupid. Letang has a lot of offensive ability, but he doesn’t use it .. because of Therrien. Letang just dumps the puck into the corner, like Whitney .. instead of either shooting the puck or looking to pass it to someone for a real scoring chance.
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