Faceoff Factor

Fantasy Rankings Show Penguins' Value

Matt Bodenschatz | Pittsburgh Penguins

Aug 12, 01:55 PM | Hype this story!

Rankings are a fun, yet unscientific way of looking at the value of individual players, groups of players, or entire teams.

What makes them so interesting is that two people or two publications may have completing opposing views with their rankings.

Darryl Dobbs runs a fantasy hockey site called “Dobber Hockey:“http://www.dobberhockey.com/, which has become a regular stop of mine in the past few months.

While scrolling around this morning I stumbled upon Dobbs’ rankings, and I couldn’t help but think how interesting they are.

Among his Top 300 Players, Dobbs has a top-heavy list of Pittsburgh Penguins, including Sidney Crosby (1), Evgeni Malkin (3), Petr Sykora (54), Sergei Gonchar (65), Miroslav Satan (87), Jordan Staal (88), and Ryan Whitney (102).

The only team that really rivals that talent, according to his list, is the Detroit Red Wings, whose top-ranked player, Marian Hossa (9), was plucked from the Penguins through free agency.

For his Top 300 list, Dobbs uses a rating system, which he says reflects the value an individual player has in a fantasy hockey keeper league. His criteria include predicted points, historical points, injury risk, playoff value, powerplay time, and long-term potential.

From his overall list, he breaks things down further, pulling out defensemen and looking at them on their own.

Again, unsurprisingly, the Penguins have a nice bunch, with Gonchar (1) leading the pack and followed up closely by Whitney (6), Kris Letang (32) and Alex Goligoski (37).

In goal, Marc-Andre Fleury sits comfortably in third, with John Curry (70) and Dany Sabourin (80) also cracking the Top 100 Goalies list.

Lastly, Dobbs ventures into the unknown and takes a stab at the Top 200 Prospects. The first Penguin to make the list is Luca Caputi (47), though the most interesting is Janne Pesonen, who snuck in as the NHL’s 49th ranked prospect. Other flightless birds making an appearance include Ryan Stone (76), Goligoski (curiously at 123), Dustin Jeffrey (150), Joe Vitale (181), Jonathan Filewich (183), Keven Veilleux (195), and Adam Henrich (200).

So now, let’s make sense of all of this, starting first with the overall list.

Really, the only true surprise is Sykora being ranked 11 spots higher than Gonchar, who is the highest ranked defenseman on the list. Clearly, Malkin’s playmaking abilities have elevated Sykora’s game to a level that makes him a very valuable player, both to the Penguins and to fantasy hockey managers.

Shifting to defense, there are several curious rankings among Penguin players. First off, Gonchar is ranked first – ahead of Niklas Lidstrom, Dion Phaneuf and, well, everyone. While he’s a solid offensive player, it’s interesting to see that, based on Dobbs’ data, Gonchar is the highest valued defenseman among fantasy hockey managers.

It’s also interesting to note that, despite the backlash from Penguin fans throughout the previous season, most fans and fantasy managers continue to hold him in extremely high regard, as evidenced by his sixth overall ranking among defensemen. And, despite Letang’s high ranking among defensemen, he’s relatively low in the big picture, sitting at 242 overall.

And how about Fleury? After a rough start to the 2007-08 season that saw him lose starts to Dany Sabourin, Fleury rebounded nicely, and is considered the third most coveted goalie among fantasy hockey managers.

Prospect-wise, it seems widely-accepted among Penguin fans that Goligoski is the team’s top prospect, but with three players ahead of him on Dobbs’ list, we could be seeing the first indication that “GoGo” is a bit overrated in Pittsburgh.

Lastly, and possibly most intriguing, is the 26-year-old Pesonen, who signed as a free agent this summer after spending the first years of his career in Finland. His ranking among prospects is modest, at best, but his overall ranking of 159 illustrates the interest he is gaining among fantasy managers.

Clearly, lists such as these are nothing more than a compilation of rankings based on one man’s scheme; however, Dobbs is a very successful entrepreneur running highly-competitive fantasy hockey leagues. Based on this alone, I think his rankings are worthy of merit, especially when trying to determine the value of players on the Penguins roster or within the system.

Factor Notice

We at Faceoff Factor are hoping to improve upon last year’s spotty fantasy coverage as the 2008-09 season draws closer. Look for FF-exclusive rankings, analysis, and potentially even daily predictions of starting goalies. If you have any suggestions, please feel free to let us know using the comments section below, or the contact form, which is linked to at the bottom of the “Features” tab of the yellow toolbar along the right side of this page.