Faceoff Factor: With or Without You

With or Without You

Justin Maffei | Pittsburgh Penguins

Aug 24, 08:50 PM | Hype this story!

The Pittsburgh Penguins are going to be without Defenseman Ryan Whitney for 3-5 months. Could this be good news for the Penguins? Let’s see how they fared with Whitney in the line-up versus when Whitney was out of the line-up.

Last season, Ryan Whitney played in 76 of the team’s 82 games. He missed 4 games in November because of a groin injury and 2 games in March when he re-aggravated his groin. Therefore, there is not a large sample to take from, but it is worth taking a look.

Before looking at the numbers, take a look at the definitions of the statistics chosen.

GP = Games Played
Record = Team Record (Wins-Losses-Overtime Losses)
Points = Points earned by team (2 for a win, 1 for an overtime loss)
P/G = Points earned per game (Points/GP)
GF = Goals for (goals scored by the Penguins)
GA = Goals against (goals allowed by the Penguins)
GF/G = Goals for per game
GA/G = Goals for per game*
PPG = Powerplay goals scored by the Penguins
PP Opp = Powerplay Opportunities for the Penguins
PP% = Powerplay Percentage (PPG/PP Opp)

Here is how the team fared while Whitney was on the ice:

GP	Record	Points	P/G	GF	GA	GF/G	GA/G	PPG	PP Opp	PP%
76	45-23-8	98	1.29	224	195	2.95	2.57	73	350	21.43

Compare that to how the Pens played with Whitney in the press box:

GP	Record	Points	P/G	GF	GA	GF/G	GA/G	PPG	PP Opp	PP%
6	2-4-0	4	0.67	16	17	2.67	2.83	4	28	14.29

If history gives us any indication, the Pittsburgh Penguins could be in for a long season. Were the Penguins to play a full 82 games, achieving just .67 points per game, then the team would end the season with about 55 points. Last season, the Penguins earned 102 points. They also score less, and give up more, goals when Whitney is out of the line-up. The powerplay also clicked at a more than 7% better clip when Whitney was playing.

How will the Penguins make up for this injury? We must remember that Kris Letang is a year more experienced and would probably be happy to take on a more offensively responsible role. However, Letang played much better last season than we can expect from Alex Goligoski or Daryl Sydor (the likely choices to be replacements for Whitney’s active roster spot). If Sydor is still with the team when the season starts, expect to see him in the line-up so that Goligoski can work a little more on his defensive game in the NHL. If Sydor is gone, then Go-Go is likely the man.

Comments

Ben Schmidt

Aug 24, 11:52 PM

It is worth noting that since Whitney is known to be out prior to training camp starting, at least the Penguins can practice together without him to make the necessary adjustments – it isn’t like losing him in the middle of a season where they have to upset working units in order to account for his absence.

Additionally, they also know that they have to make due without him for a while, so they can’t just tell themselves “Whitney will be back soon, so we don’t need to change our habits right now” like they could when he was just out for a handful of games.

This is more comparable to Crosby being out, in that they know he’s gone for a while, and others have to step up their game to make up for his absence. While not as big an absence as Crosby, the length of time is comparable.
Justin Maffei

Aug 25, 04:38 PM

This is definitely true, Tom. However, watching this games, it was easy to see that the team was missing a step without Whitney. This is not necessarily because of the caliber of player that they were missing. Rather, it could be because of the lack of practice time spent getting comfortable with Whitney’s replacement, especially on the powerplay. I am sure that Letang will step in and do wonderfully on the powerplay.
Justin Maffei

Aug 25, 11:10 PM

With the injury, the possibility of seeing Kemp, Richmond, or Mormina has increased, but I still believe the choice is between Sydor and Goligoski.
Matt Bodenschatz

Aug 26, 03:57 PM

You can bank on Gonchar being on the top PK unit with Orpik. Gonchar is the team’s number one defender, regardless of any fans’ feelings. He has and will continue to log PK, PP and even strength ice time at a pace on par with or greater than any other defender on the team. The addition of Eaton and possible Goligoski will not change this.
Justin Maffei

Aug 27, 05:21 PM

Actually Tom, statistics suggest otherwise. Gonchar actually was the defenseman that had the fewest goals scored against per 60 minutes while on the ice during the powerplay (6.05). He also had the third highest time on ice per 60 minutes of the powerplay among defensemen (3.81). Combine those with the fact that goals for per 60 minutes (1.01) was higher when he was on the ice than any other defenseman besides Orpik, and you have a darn good PK defenseman. His +/- during the powerplay was also second highest to Orpik with a -5.04 to Orpik’s -4.96. Letang was a -7.15, Eaton was a -6.99, Gill was even a -6.39. Gonchar is more than a full goal better than everyone except Orpik. And we all know how important a one goal difference is.
Matt Bodenschatz

Aug 27, 05:50 PM

Tom, I think Justin’s stats are a good indication that, while Gonchar may not be the traditional “number one” defender in that he’s not a shut down kind of guy, he is effective, even in an unorthodox manner. Further, all I was saying is that, based on Therrien’s management thus far — and we have a nice sample size — he wants Gonchar on the ice as much as possible, meaning he’ll, without a doubt, be on the first PK pairing.
Justin Maffei

Aug 31, 02:58 PM

I believe that Matt’s reply explained that “while Gonchar may not be the traditional “number one” defender in that he’s not a shut down kind of guy, he is effective, even in an unorthodox manner.” You can have a lack of respect for statistics, but statistics don’t lie. There may be circumstances that benefitted that player, but the statistics are what they are.
Matt Bodenschatz

Aug 31, 08:57 PM

Tom, just as you ask us to, at times, ignore statistics which may ignore circumstances, such as quality of opponent and teammate, I think you, too, must ignore certain attributes of players. Sometimes, inexplicably, certain players who shouldn’t be good at something are good at it. I, too, agree that Gonchar is not the ideal penalty killing defender, and that, ahead of him should be Scuderi, Eaton, Gill, Orpik, and possibly even Letang. But I ask you this: why should the Penguins tamper with a successful recipe?

The Penguins boasted the second best penalty kill percentage of the playoffs, a time widely known as the most difficult time of year to play. Gonchar is not the reason for this, but he certainly was a big part of it. Quite obviously, he was not a hindrance. Until this changes, I see absolutely no reason to make any changes and, in fact, I think we will continue to see the penalty kill manned by Gonchar.