Analysis: Penguins Acquire Guerin
Matt Bodenschatz | Pittsburgh Penguins
Mar 4, 05:18 PM | Hype this story!
First of all, apologies for the downtime – it’s something we’re seeing around the hockey world today.
Bill Guerin is now a Pittsburgh Penguin.
I’m not yet sure how I feel about this.
Officially, the deal is conditional. The Penguins will send a fifth round draft pick to the New York Islanders if they do not make the playoffs. If they make the playoffs and lose in the first round, the Penguins send a fourth round draft pick to New York. And, if the Penguins advance beyond the first round, New York will get a third round draft pick.
After looking at it a bit closer, it’s not too bad.
Guerin will provide a front-of-the-net, physical presence on the power play and one of the top two lines, though his skills have diminished quickly.
To date, he has totaled 16 goals and 20 assists in 61 games this season.
Speculation swirled around Guerin Sunday, as he was held from the Islanders game in anticipation a trade was being finalized. At the time, the Penguins were considered one of the long shots due to a rumor that Guerin would not waive his no-trade clause to come to Pittsburgh, a team known for being harsh on older players.
Clearly, the rumor was false, as Guerin will be wearing the black and gold as soon as tomorrow.
What will be interesting to watch is what general manager Ray Shero does with Miroslav Satan, who cleared waivers and is eligible to be demoted to the AHL. Presumable, Satan contract will have to be removed from the team’s salary structure in order to create room for Guerin’s contract.
Shero has called a press conference for 4:00 p.m. to discuss today’s activities.
Comments
Two Sheds
Mar 4, 05:29 PM
I couldn’t work up a lot of enthusiasm for this trade, though I guess it depends on what effort level the Pens get from Guerin. He was the second leading scorer on the Islanders but -15. He had the same number of points as Satan, as far as that goes. And he costs more. He’s got more pedigree, and maybe he’ll be energized for a playoff run. We’ll see. He certainly gets his points differently than Satan does.
Perhaps the Penguins’ reputation for “being harsh on older players” will change with Therrien gone.
It increasingly seems a shame the Pens couldn’t hang onto Ryan Malone. I would judge him to be as good as either Kunitz or Guerin. Not as experienced, I suppose.
Matt Bodenschatz
Mar 4, 05:36 PM
@Two Sheds, I found myself quite disappointed with the deal as well. In fact, Sunday, when I heard Pittsburgh name mentioned in the Guerin talk, I slapped my forehead, thinking the price had to be somewhat steep to deal that early.
Now, we see it is a conditional pick that can be no higher than a third. That’s not a bad deal, considering the Pens have two third rounders — one acquired from the Lightning over the summer. We’ll see how he works out, but this certainly sets Bylsma up to have a ton of line combo options.
As for Malone, I think he’s been missed all season, but the reality is, he costs way to much, both in terms of contract length and cap hit.
Two Sheds
Mar 4, 05:50 PM
@Matt, I agree that the price isn’t too high, the question is who will he replace — and I guess Satan is the answer to that. Unfortunately I was just starting to enjoy watching Satan play again the last few games. You’re right about the line flexibility, but I think Satan might actually have benefitted a lot from having a linemate like either Guerin or Kunitz. I guess the lines will be something like Crosby/Guerin/Fedotenko, Malkin/Sykora/Kunitz, Stahl/Cooke/Kennedy? Or maybe Dupuis instead of Fedotenko? They can’t be too far off of that.
As for Malone, his contract was too high in $$ and length, which is why I thought it amusing that the Trib today reported that the Pens were talking to TB about acquiring him. I am guessing that if they were ok with that contract they could have offered it to him and just kept him. But I suspect he could have been gotten for a lot less earlier in the season, though Shero claims that Malone’s agent never negotiated. He might have gotten caught up in the everything is on hold while we wait for Hossa backwash, too.
Moq
Mar 4, 06:27 PM
There’s little doubt in my mind that Guerin (and Adams) improves our team. Whether it’s sufficient to increase our chances of reaching the playoffs compared to the closest competitors, and potentially playoff success, is a different question altogether. At least the asking price was well within reason.
I’m hoping that Guerin will be a positive influence on and off the ice. Especially the latter might be of long-term benefit. Some of the young players could learn a few things from a veteran like Guerin. The value of on-ice product appears a little less certain from my perspective. We also failed to acquire a replacement groin for Crosby.
Not quite as interesting as I had hoped, but it doesn’t surprise me at all. The economic outlook and the relative lack of significant sellers made it a market for minor adjustments with a few exceptions.
RELENTLESSFORECHECK
Mar 4, 06:52 PM
In light of the activity before the trade deadline, the Pens acquisition of Guerin is anti-climactic to say the least. While Guerin will no doubt add grit, scoring depth, net presence, and more punch to a pretty pathetic power play, he’s certainly not the long-term answer to the top-six forward question.
DAVID SCOTT
Mar 4, 06:58 PM
I think that Kunitz has shown so much chemistry with (and rejuvinated) Stall, that I would hate to see hat broken up once Crosby returns. While I know that Satan has been sent down, he showed some real life on that line with Stall and Kunitz.
Wouldn’t the pens be dangerous with these lines?
Kennedy/Crosby/Guerin
Sykora/Malkin/Fedetenko
Kunitz/Stall/Satan
Dupuis/Talbot/Cooke
With the way they have been playing, and provided Guerin can continue to shoot (which I see no reason he wouldn’t) Crosby and Kennedy should be able to use their speed and puck movement to open the Guerin shot. Would be a powerfull force to have to defend against.
bag o' pucks
Mar 4, 07:06 PM
Obviously he’s a rental. It’s a good deal for what Guerin will bring to the locker room and the Pens gave up virtually nothing to get him. The fifth rounder NYI currently has received was acquired from Tampa for the rights to Michal Sersen. The Pens were never going to sign Sersen, so it’s a gift pick.
If it moves to a fourth, as it likely will, that’s fine as the Pens have two thirds.
If they win a round, the Pens still have a pick in every round of the draft and eliminating a club like Washington would well be worth the third round pick, assuming Guerin would have something to do with a series win.
Guerin is an instant upgrade from Satan as BG will go into traffic areas that Miro never again will. He’s a north-south player who goes straight to the net.
I actually think Tom got the lines right. With Adams supplanting Goddard in the playoffs (should they make them).
Brixton Pen
Mar 4, 08:19 PM
This move is no one’s fantasy by any stretch, but it is clearly a Shero move for this season – calculated for minimal impact on future, as the Feds an S(h)atan signing at the beginning of the year. Simply Shero is rolling the dice without betting because nothing really adds up this year – if something clicks we get lucky, otherwise he is very flexible going into the market in the off season, which I like… kunitz was a hockey move regardless and will hopefully continue to pay dividends as it has early… Lets just try and make the playoffs and everything is a bonus this year..
Two Sheds
Mar 4, 08:33 PM
Given that they didn’t really give up much to get Guerin, the only downside to this trade is losing what Satan brought to the table. Which wasn’t nothing — he does have 36 points (same as Guerin) and is +4 instead of -15. But Guerin is a more experienced player and probably more the kind wing that they need. A lot will depend on how rejuvenated he is.
I wonder how far below the cap they would be if they put Boucher on waivers. Satan is at 3.5M, but Boucher makes 2.something. Maybe they can squeeze the salary out somehow.
Nick
Mar 5, 12:58 AM
Seems like an ok deal to me. Fact is the noise that GM Shero made on the 07 deadline made the Penguins big & tough. Last year he shocked the world. This deadline there was talk of big things, but he just can’t keep going to the well of prospects and picks, eventually it will be left dry.
So picking up Adams & Guerin cost nothing in terms of prospects and at most a 3rd rounder. What it does do is give the team depth on the wing for the stretch drive and how ever much of the playoffs.
Supposedly Guerin is a great locker room guy, and the team has lacked that vet presence this year, so even if he plays 12 min a game, he’ll do is job. Then this summer, join AARP.
Go Pens.
TheOneAndOnlySurge
Mar 5, 01:09 AM
Great thoughts but you guys are overlooking one small point when talking about Guerin. He is a – 15 but he also played for the worst team in the NHL. With a good team around him, we will likely see a better +/- by the end of the season. His points will most definetly increase more rapidly playing with this much talent. He also gives us that grit we have missed all season. Kunitz has done wonders so far because of his grit. Adams is another guy that gives us a little grit. So with that being said we have four guys in the lineup with grit and one more somewhat at times gritty guy in Fedotenko. Also, don’t forget Guerin can still handle the puck and shoot. He may of lost a little from his game but he does have potential.
The lose of Satan is like lossing Whitney. It makes our team better by subtraction. I just wish they would have done this in December. Not that Guerin could of come in December but at least we could of waived Satan.
Two Sheds
Mar 5, 07:41 AM
I think it was a good deal to make, and I hope Guerin does great. But -15 was one of the worst plus/minus’s on the Islanders, and there are plus players on the team. He had the same number of points as Satan, who is +3, and there are minus players on the Penguins — Whitney being a good example before he left. Satan’s points, regardless of how his work ethic strikes us, count the same as everyone else’s. The issue with him is that we had higher expectations.
TheOneAndOnlySurge
Mar 5, 10:10 AM
Points wise Satan performed to expectation. Shift and situation wise he showed no heart. He didn’t battle at all and the goals he scored where tap in goals mostly. His plus minus rating is more of playing on a line with Sid and at times Malkin. These guys score or setup goals constantly and in most cases play well defensivly. Satan is bound to get more plus than minus while playing on those lines. Either way we will see tonight.
RelentlessForecheck
Mar 5, 10:26 AM
Thanks Surge, you picked up one of my points. It bothers me that Satan has been labeled as a disappointment. I won’t elaborate here (a Miro Satan thread would be more apropos) suffice to say that he is on pace to outperform his last season’s numbers with the Islanders.
The problem is, now that Satan has been demoted to WBS, we’ve subtracted his 36 points from the roster and added Bill Guerin’s… 36 points. Regardless of intangibles between the two, the net result on the scoresheet is a wash.
If Shero added Guerin and did not subtract Satan, I’d think it was a pretty good deal. But, if he needed to expose Satan (who was playing much better as of late) to open up cap space for Guerin, I can’t see this team is that much better.
Harley
Mar 5, 10:43 AM
I don’t see how Guerin and Satan’s points are a wash.
Let’s recognize here that Satan was playing with the best playmaker on the planet and Guerin was on a team with arguably the worst top-end center talent in the league, on the worst team in the league.
RelentlessForecheck
Mar 5, 12:48 PM
@HARLEY
First, Satan was juggled around more than an alcoholic’s car keys: he never stayed on Crosby’s wing long enough to benefit. Second, Bill Guerin spent plenty of time alongside Doug Weight, whom he not only happens to have good chemistry with but is also pretty damn good playmaker. And, until Guerin proves he can keep up with Sid, all bets are off.
Two Sheds
Mar 5, 01:38 PM
I think it’s likely that Guerin will come in energized now that he’s back in the playoff picture. Beyond that, he’s on a new team and I’m sure he’ll want to impress. My only point when I started this defense of Satan was that statistically Guerin was slightly worse than Satan if you factor in +/-. He is a different kind of player, though, and he’ll probably do more of the “gritty” things that endear hockey players to us.
As for having a chance with Crosby — it happened, but it sure didn’t happen a lot or for long stretches. Therrien never let anyone spend any significant stretches of games with Crosby this year, Crosby’s line had the usual chaos. Satan is just another one who didn’t have “chemistry” with Crosby. Neither did Sykora or, well, anyone. Except Hossa. Who arguably is, right now, as good or better a player than Crosby is in the first place.
But I’m hoping for Guerin to go +3 in a convincing destruction of the Panthers tonight. And I have an idea that Shero is going to figure out a way to unload enough salary to keep Satan on the Pens roster. Boucher would be a good place to start.
Matt Bodenschatz
Mar 5, 02:02 PM
I wonder if simply placing Zigomanis and Boucher on long-term IR would do the trick? Shero seemed to indicate he’d have a solution rather quickly.
But I think the idea is clear: Satan isn’t part of this team in the way he has been most of the season. If he comes back, we’re talking about a healthy-scratch player, most likely. Think about it, he’s only effective as a scoring winger, as he brings zero grit for an energy/checking line. But with Kunitz, Guerin, Sykora and Fedotenko penciled in as the top four, the Penguins just don’t have room for him to play alongside Malkin or Crosby. The only two ways I see him in the lineup are if there is an injury or if Bylsma shuffles lines to make more of a balance between the top three. Something like the following…
Satan-Crosby-Guerin
Fedotenko-Malkin-Sykora
Kunitz-Staal-Kennedy
Dupuis-Talbot-Cooke
Two Sheds
Mar 5, 02:20 PM
@Matt: Those lines don’t look so bad to me, though I have an idea they won’t play Satan with Crosby. Maybe put Kunitz with Crosby, Satan with Malkin and Fedotenko with Stahl? I might swap Kennedy and Cooke, too. Regardless, those are four good looking lines. We would lose our Regularly Scheduled Fight from Godard every game, though.
And since Crosby is playing tonight, we’ll know soon. I wonder what thought process Bylsma isn’t going through to figure this out. He probably reads this blog and just goes with it.
Matt Bodenschatz
Mar 5, 02:33 PM
@Two, from what I heard, Crosby practiced this morning between Kunitz and Guerin, so I think, at least initially, the lines will be set up as two scoring and two checking. Now, if it doesn’t work and if Satan returns, it’s possible they try a a more 2-1-1 combo (2 scoring, 1 scoring/checking, 1 checking) — which is what I alluded to above.
Two Sheds
Mar 5, 02:50 PM
@Matt: This is where I’m going to miss Therrien. If he were coaching, the line would start out Kunitz-Crosby-Guerin then with about five minutes gone in the first period Therrien would have turned on the RLG (Random Line Generation) software and we could have watched a lot more combinations.
I liked your lines, and I like the Pens chances for the playoffs more than I did a week ago. What has to stay constant, though, is that Fleury has to perform at a high level the rest of the way. And Gonchar can’t get hurt again. He’s way better than any other defenseman on the team.
bag o' pucks
Mar 5, 03:20 PM
Don’t just count Crosby as having little chemistry with Satan. Miro was plugged into Malkin’s line when Bylsma took over and was invisible there, as well.
I don’t dislike Miro and I’m not trying to bash the guy, but he simply is possibly the most one dimensional guy on the club. And age has deteriorated that dimension substantially. I think he’s done in North America.
Matt Bodenschatz
Mar 5, 03:52 PM
I’m not the guy to ask how Satan returns. That would be a question for Michael Farkas.
But, to take a stab, I would say that they could put one or both of Zigomanis and Boucher on long-term IR, allowing the Pens to go over the cap by their cap numbers.
Other than that, I have no idea. But don’t expect anyone off the NHL roster to be demoted or waived. Clearly, the guy Shero found least valuable to the team was Satan.
Matt Bodenschatz
Mar 5, 04:30 PM
@Tom, you’re right that Satan is a better scorer than Adams or Godard, but the Penguins also already have four scoring-line wingers in Guerin, Kunitz, Fedotenko and Sykora. They don’t need more scoring wingers — they need grinding wingers, hence the acquisition of Adams.
To your last point, I agree 100%. Depth always is great, and in the playoffs, injures are common. Having Satan in the waiting would be perfect.
Ray
Mar 6, 02:33 PM
I’m just glad they can lose, at the most, a 3rd Rd draft pick for Guerin. And, he chipped in with an assist on Sid’s goal last night.
Perhaps the best way to look at this is the Pens improved themselves with Kunitz, Guerin and Adams without having to mortgage the future like the Pens of the 1970s did.
I suspect Whitney may have already attained his highest level of play. Kunitz and Trangradi will more than make up for his loss.
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