Power Outage Not As Bad As It Looks
Matt Bodenschatz | Pittsburgh Penguins
May 4, 12:25 PM | Hype this story!
The Pittsburgh Penguins lost Game One of the Eastern Conference Semifinals to the Washington Capitals by one goal.
They out-shot the Capitals 36-26, they took two penalties to the Capitals’ five, they forced 22 Capitals giveaways (compared to the six they committed), they blocked 20 shots to the Capitals’ 17, and they won 53 percent of the faceoffs.
Quite simply, they outplayed the Capitals in most areas – and those areas in which they were outplayed, well it was by just a small margin.
But as so often is the case, especially in the playoffs, this game was decided by special teams, and more specifically, a Capitals power play goal late in the first period.
The Penguins took two undisciplined penalties (one was a delay of game for shooting the puck over the glass, the other was a retaliatory hook on Alex Ovechkin) within seconds of each other, giving the Capitals their only power plays of the games, which included an extended five-on-three.
Give most teams (okay, aside from the Penguins) an extended five-on-three in the playoffs, and they’ll convert a nice chunk of the time. Give the Capitals the same opportunity, and they’ll convert almost every time.
So, with a power play goal for the Capitals, the Penguins were in need of a matching goal – one they did not get.
In total, they were blanked on five opportunities, bringing their playoff conversion rate to 10.8 percent, good for seventh out of the eight remaining teams.
It’s not a good situation.
But it isn’t a death sentence either.
One of the teams most experts, bloggers, and casual fans are talking most about is the Carolina Hurricanes.
They’re a complete team – except on the power play, where they have converted just 6.7 percent of their opportunities.
Despite not scoring a single power play goal, the Hurricanes managed to blank the Boston Bruins Sunday, winning by a 3-0 score.
How’d they do it? They killed off all four penalties, improving their penalty kill percentage to 90 percent.
In Pittsburgh the Penguins have struggled all season with the man advantage. Early, the woes were blamed on the loss of dynamic defenders Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney to injuries. But as both players returned, the power play did not, and ultimately finished 20th in the league at 17.2 percent.
Despite this, they made the playoffs and finished the season with the Eastern Conference’s fourth best record.
But helping the cause, the Penguins’ penalty kill soared as the season wound down. At 82.7 percent, the Penguins ranked eighth in the NHL in their kill rate, and have started the playoffs with an 84.4 percent kill rate; a number that can and likely will improve.
As we approach the second game of this mega matchup between arguably the two most exciting teams in the league, many are singling out the Penguins’ power play as the team’s biggest weakness.
And, to be frank, it is.
But is it a weakness strong enough that, when paired with all of the team’s strengths, can cost them the series?
Maybe. Maybe not.
You see, hockey is such a dynamic game that weaknesses – even big ones – can be masked with strengths. And aside from the power play, it may be difficult to find an area in which the Capitals are definitely better than the Penguins.
As we look ahead to the rest of this series, and hopefully further, I think it’s important to realize that power plays are important, but no more important than penalty kills.
And strong penalty killing (coupled with discipline) is the best remedy to compensate for an underperforming power play.
It’s not the power play percentage rate that is most important. It’s the special teams scorecard that means more.
Hypothetically, the Penguins could have a perfect power play and still lose the battle of power play goals.
The Penguins have shown the ability to improve their penalty killing and have proven to be one of the league’s best in that area. Meanwhile, the Penguins have not shown much of an ability to improve their power play and have proven to be one of the league’s worst in that area.
Realistically, it’s much more plausible to expect the penalty kill to improve and compensate for the underperforming power play than it is to expect the power play to miraculously improve after a season’s worth of issues.
I liken it to this unrealistic statement: “The Penguins need to score 10 goals per game, and if they do that, they’ll win.”
We all know 10 goals would easily win almost every hockey game played in the modern era. We all also know than 10 goals is so unrealistic that it’s not worth mentioning.
Instead of looking for improvement from an area that likely can’t or won’t be improved, let’s look to alternatives:
- Take fewer penalties, leaving the Capitals with fewer opportunities to convert on the power play. Limit their power play goals and the Penguins’ lack of power play goals become less relevant.
- Focus on penalty killing. In the first round, the Penguins limited one of the league’s top power plays to just four goals (13.3 percent). That command put them on an even playing field in terms of special teams, as the Penguins scored four as well (12.5 percent).
Scoring a big power play goal can give a team an emotional lift that can result in a win. But so can penalty killing.
It’s all about how you look at it.
Comments
Matt Bodenschatz
May 4, 12:50 PM
Just a footnote, here:
Mario Lemieux found his way onto the ice during practice yesterday to voice his opinion about the power play. TSN has the video, thanks to the great fans over at the Let’s Go Pens Message Boards.
Will it help? Who knows. But as of right now, if I’m Bylsma, I’m focusing efforts on improving the penalty kill and preaching discipline. My thought is to try to keep this series at even strength or on a Penguins power play (to prevent the Caps from scoring, if nothing else).
Matt Bodenschatz
May 4, 01:00 PM
Another footnote:
Per the Post-Gazette, the power play looks to have made some changes. “Yesterday, the No. 1 unit had Sergei Gonchar and Kris Letang on the points, with Sidney Crosby, Guerin and Evgeni Malkin up front, while the second group had Gonchar and Mark Eaton on the points, with Chris Kunitz, Staal and Petr Sykora up front.”
Ben Schmidt
May 4, 01:34 PM
I’ll say this much: if Mario wants to come down and give tips on power play tactics and strategy, I’d be more than open to listening to him, if I were a player or coach!
As for focus: I think the reason they are focusing on the power play is because they’ve clearly shown that they are performing well in most other areas of the game. At that point, it makes sense to try to improve the weak area, when it is one that in the past was a strength. I do like moving Guerin to the top unit – if only because he provides that right-handed shot in the slot.
Matt Bodenschatz
May 4, 02:09 PM
For the record, Ben, I have no issue with the Penguins practicing and trying to improve the team. I simply think the statement of “the Penguins must improve the power play or they will lose” is off base and unrealistic.
If people really think the Penguins will lose unless the power play improves, they should stop watching now, as it isn’t going to hit 21 or 22 percent — which is the level most deem to be respectable. For one, it’s the playoffs, and games traditionally become more defense-oriented, meaning msot teams suffer power play declines once the second season begins. Second, the Penguins weren’t at 21 or 22 percent all season, so it’s off-base to think it can happen now.
I’d like to see them bump to the 15 to 17 percent range, while bumping their penalty killing to the upper 80s (which I believe is realistic, considering how the did against the deep Flyers).
Jon
May 4, 02:38 PM
I’m not sure if using the Bruins-Canes game as an example of how not scoring on the power play isn’t all bad. Yes, the Hurricanes didn’t score on the power play, but the Canes won because the Bruins played their worst game of the season top to bottom. It was just an awful, awful display of hockey. A better team than the Canes would’ve won that game 6-0.
Matt Bodenschatz
May 4, 02:54 PM
Why not? I keep hearing that the power play has to get better or the team won't win. The Hurricanes just won while not scoring a power play goal. The Penguins won the last series scoring just four power play goals in six games. Those are both good examples because they show that other things come into play during a hockey game. Play well enough in other areas and the team will be able to compensate for a poor power play. A successful power play makes things easier, an unsuccessful power play doesn't make things impossible.
bag o' pucks
May 4, 04:01 PM
Pens in six, boys, including three straight starting tonight.
Matt Bodenschatz
May 4, 04:02 PM
@Bag, that’s what I’m talking about
TheOneAndOnlySurge
May 4, 04:45 PM
@Matt, nice right up. I really like how you look at the game. I do think this team could have a huge turn around at any moment on the power play but I won’t wait for it to happen. In any case it would be best for us in the long run to try to beat teams 5 on 5 and if a PP goal happens well thats just an added bonus.
Ben Schmidt
May 4, 05:32 PM
Matt –
I think there’s a difference between “needs to improve” and “needs to reach 20+%”. It’s possible for them to win games without scoring power play goals, yes. But I’d be surprised if they could win the series against the Capitals without scoring them. Note, I don’t think they need to score them in bunches, but going 0 for 17 as they’ve done is a recipe for long-term disaster. They don’t need one every game, but they shouldn’t be going on, what, four games now without a power play goal?
That said, all season they’ve gone through these power play slumps, and then suddenly burst out with streaks of power play success. I’m hoping they do the same thing, starting tonight.
All that said, I still feel pretty confident they’ll come through in the end.
Matt Bodenschatz
May 4, 06:06 PM
@Surge, thanks.
@Ben, an exageration on my part, but what I was getting at was that people complained all year when the team was at 15 to 17%. Both numbers would represent a large increase in power play production at this point — but even at those percentages, most people would still consider the power play to stink.
All I am trying to say is that the team cannot rely on the power play to win. That’s pretty much a given. So, the best bet is to do everything possible to sure up other areas of the team’s game to compensate. And all of this should be done while still working to improve the power play.
Pens1967
May 4, 09:26 PM
Let me be the first to start the chant:
Ye-o must go, Ye-o must go
The PP is absolutely pathetic. It’s too bad that Shero jumped the gun to sign Bylsma because he doesn’t deserve it by continuing to allow Yeo to coach the PP.
Matt Bodenschatz
May 4, 10:09 PM
@Pens, I agree Yeo needs to go. He hasn’t impressed me at all. But to suggest Bylsma isn’t a worthy coaching candidate because he is using the assistants he was given is a bit offbase.
bag o' pucks
May 4, 10:12 PM
It’s a pretty simple equation:
Crosby and Ovechkin are a wash;
Varlamov has been better than Fluery;
And David Steckel has been better than both Malkin and Staal combined.
I didn’t say it made much sense, I just said it was simple.
Malkin has disappeared. The Staal line, which was so good against Philly has been invisible vs. the Caps. Fleury has been poor, as well.
It’s Crosby vs. the Caps, and he’s down 0-2.
This is the Penguins third series over the last three years that they’ve started on the road. They are a combined 1-5 in the first two games of those series. Won’t win many series with starts like that.
Matt Bodenschatz
May 4, 10:24 PM
@Bag, you’re dead on. Crosby truly looks like the only player ready to play. Maybe add in Orpik and Fedotenko. The rest just seem off.
Malkin must step up his game. His tripping penalty following the third period power play that led to the quick Ovechkin goal, in my opinion, was grounds for a benching the rest of the game. That’s the lack of discipline I said would/could hurt this team, and it was the deciding factor in the game.
And, not to beat a dead horse, but the Penguins went 2/5 on the power play and still lost. It just goes to show that there are many elements to the game, and the power play is just one. This team needs to get its collective head on straight and play 60 minutes the way they played the first 10 tonight.
bag o' pucks
May 4, 11:13 PM
Toss Fleury and Staal in with Malkin, Bodes. Fleury’s sv% is a dismal .881 through two games. Yes, most of the goals against him have been better chances than they should have been (blown coverages on the doorstep, one-timer power play blasts), but he hasn’t come up with that so-called “huge” save (see: gm 2 vs. Carter, Flyers). Varlamov has, and the Caps have two one-goal wins.
The fourth goal tonight, the eventual game winner, is a must save for him. A wrister from, what, 25 feet? Varly got a glove on a better chance, a wide open slapper from Sarge, earlier in the game. Fleury failed to answer and the Pens lose by one, again.
I’d expound about Staal and his line but they’ve done nothing memorable (in a good way), that’s for sure. Cooke’s been simply awful.
The Caps are beaming with confidence right now, largely because of their goalie. The Pens aren’t, largely because of both goalies and the disappearing acts of Malkin and Staal.
bag o' pucks
May 5, 03:07 AM
Okay, so I’m not happy with Fleury’s goaltending, but I still wouldn’t have done what former Pen Tomas Surovy did this weekend at the World’s to teammate (and Montreal Canadien) Jaroslav Halak…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0U2Vx_Ffjc
DaBich
May 5, 05:40 AM
Matt, I stand by my opinion, that special teams can make or break a game/series.
Now, I missed a lot of the game last night, with my puppy in surgery. But when Crosby gets a hat trick (is that right?) and we lost, that’s sad.
Seems we also scored two PP goals, and still lost, so, that’s not the sole deciding factor. But…it IS definitely a factor.
I’m still hanging in there tho, it’s not over…till it’s over :)
Matt Bodenschatz
May 5, 08:47 AM
@Bag, you’re completely right. This team is MIA aside from Crosby and a select few others. The entire third line has gone from the best line to the most invisible line, and that’s not good. Malkin has yet to start playing, and Fleury is playing well below his standards. If this doesn’t change, we’ll be sitting on a very short series.
@Dabich, I don’t think you got my point. I never said special teams don’t make or break games. They can, and they often do. I said power plays aren’t the only part of special teams. And I said the Penguins need to come out on top in terms of the special teams scorecard, not specifically the power play.
Of course the power play is important. Anytime you have an opportunity to score, you need to, and the power play essentially is a 2:00 long scoring chance. But the power play isn’t working, and it is extremely unrealistic to think that, after a season’s worth of struggles, it will somehow make a drastic improvement (which is what would be needed to elevate it to “good” status).
Penalty killing is just as important and can cover for a weak power play. My point is that, when the power play is not performing (as has been the case all year), the team needs to pick up other areas (penalty killing, for example) to compensate. If that happens, and the team can get a timely power play goal (as was the case in round one on several occasions), the power play percentage becomes less relevant.
As for Crosby and the hat trick, you are 100 percent correct, it was wasted. Crosby isn’t a goal scorer, so when he scores, the team must take advantage of that. When he scores three, that should be an automatic win. That didn’t happen — and that’s not good. As Bag O’Pucks mentioned, the team has disappeared. Hopefully a day off and a return to Pittsburgh will get them back on track.
I hope Shelby is on the up swing. Last I heard, you were calling the vet around 10:45 last night. Hopefully the news was good!
Pens1967
May 5, 08:56 AM
Matt, it’s been a long week and half for me with family things cropping up and I admit to being pretty surly, but my point about Bylsma is that he is the head coach. He’s responsible for allowing Yeo to continue coaching the PP or not. If the PP isn’t working because of scheme, players or both, then it’s Bylsma’s responsibility to change up one or both of those elements.
Maybe Bylsma is the right coach for the Pens, but honestly, if I were Shero I would have waited until the end of the Pens run in the playoffs to evaluate Bylsma’s performance before making a permanent decision about him.
I think right now it’s pretty obvious that Bylsma’s system which emphasizes offense over defense – while good for the regular season – isn’t suiting the team well in the playoff games so far. Recall last year when the Pens got a lead, they could hold it. Not this year, though.
Matt Bodenschatz
May 5, 09:52 AM
@Pens, solid point at the end. A lead is to be secure, and the Penguins just can’t manage that. When they get the lead, you know they have to add to it to stay ahead. I think, though, it has more to do with execution than the system. The players just aren’t executing the way they had earlier in his tenure. They’re still shooting, but the shots are less of the high quality variety that they once were. Now, that certainly is what happens in the playoffs, but the chances they are getting that are high quality aren’t being executed. Varlamov’s stick save on Crosby Staurday is the perfect example. Crosby needed to put mustard on the shot. He saw an open cage and just tapped it. That’s not acceptable.
As for the power play. I agree that Yeo is garbage and that something needs to be done. But is anyone currently on the staff going to turn around the power play in such a short time? I too question the timing of Bylsma’s signing, but he has done a solid job, and with a training camp and a full regular season under his belt, I’m sure he’ll make significant strides of improvement next year in the playoffs.
By the way, I hope the family things aren’t serious and all is on the upswing.
Pens1967
May 5, 11:53 AM
Matt, thanks for the kind words. The family things aren’t too bad. My uncle (90) passed away in March and the old puck landed on my stick to close out his small estate. My dad (87) had a pacemaker installed and is doing very well. But, between trips to the hospital and NYC, things were hectic! :)
DaBich
May 6, 05:43 AM
Wow Pens, compared to my puppy problems, you’ve had your plate full!
Thanks, Matt, Shelby is holding her own now. :)
Pens1967
May 6, 02:24 PM
We already had our pet trauma for the year after my mom and dad had to put down their old (17 or 18 yrs) cat in January. She a big cancerous tumor. I think fewer tears would have been shed if I’d have died! LOL!
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