Faceoff Factor

Comments

1. TIM

   Jun 17, 04:00 PM

   Matt will this have any effect on signing Letang long term?

2. sonofatruckload

   Jun 17, 04:19 PM

   not if gonchar comes off the books in 10/11… which is looking more and more likely if you ask me

3. Matt Bodenschatz

   Jun 17, 04:22 PM

   @Tim, none whatsoever. Letang is under contract for one more season at his current salary, meaning any extension signed this summer (if he and the team choose to go this route) will not kick in until next year, when Sergei Gonchar’s salary comes off the books.

   @Son, Gonchar may very well return after next season, but only at a reduced price, which I think is good possibility.

4. bag o' pucks

   Jun 17, 04:56 PM

   Eaton’s $2M also drops off the books in 2010. But if the Pens are able to re-sign Scuds this summer, I’m skeptical there will be any room, after also fitting in Letang next summer, for Sarge.

   Glad that Gogo’s back. This deal takes him to his UFA eligibility in 2012.

   Anyone care to guess what Scuds will get this summer, contract term and total value?

5. Moq

   Jun 17, 05:27 PM

   This probably means that Scuderi is gone, which isn’t an unbearable loss for the Penguins. Despite his playoff performance, Scuderi and his skillset is expendable.

   @Tim, I agree with Matt. Gonchar will sign a cap friendly extension. On top of that, Eaton could be replaced by a cheaper alternative or re-sign at a reduced rate. That could save a couple of million for Letangs extension.

6. Pens1967

   Jun 17, 05:59 PM

   I think Goligoski’s extenstion means Gill won’t be back. Letang’s extention will likely take up Eaton’s salary and Eaton will not be back after next year. By 2011, Brian Strait will be ready to step in for Eaton. I think the Pens will try and re-sign Scuderi, but I also think some team will offer to overpay him.

   Sarge may well take less to play a few more years.

   Shero has done a pretty good timing when the defensemen’s contracts run out with the readiness of their replacements.

7. DaBich

   Jun 17, 06:28 PM

   MOQ I sure hope you’re wrong about Scuderi. I’d like to see him around for a few more years. He fits his role very well.

8. Moq

   Jun 17, 06:57 PM

   Dabich, Scuderi will have to settle for something close to Eaton money in order to stay. It isn’t completely unlikely that he’ll refuse a bigger paycheck for Pittsburgh, but this is his opportunity to make money. A potential $3.5M/year offer would be difficult to refuse. And unlike Malone, he has a ring.

   I think Pittsburgh might settle for Gill, who should be available for less, unless they feel confident about Lovejoy as a fulltime NHL’er.

9. Jane

   Jun 17, 08:02 PM

   I was also wondering if it would affect Letang’s contract. I wonder if Shero considers Letang to be part of the core. I should think so, especially after his playoff performance and the fact that he is on the first power play unit. It seems like they are trying to develop him. Bylsma seems like the perfect coach for him, too.

10. bag o' pucks

    Jun 17, 09:11 PM

    On another note, Brian Strait has signed with Pittsburgh. Excellent news.

    http://www.uscho.com/news/college-hockey/id,17105/BUCoCaptainStraitGoesPro.html

11. Matt Bodenschatz

    Jun 17, 09:41 PM

    @Bag, if Scuderi wants to stay, he takes $2.5 million. If he takes the highest bid, he could get as much as $3.75 in my opinion. As for years, my guess is most bidders will keep it somewhat short — 2-3 years at most.

    @Moq, I don’t think signing Goligoski has anything to do with Scuderi. Gogo needed re-upped, and they did so at a price that is more indicative of his potential than his body of work. They are different styles of defenders at different stages of their careers, but my guess is Shero had this Goligoski deal in mind for a while, and has a plan allowing him to keep Scuderi too — assuming Scuds wants to stay.

    @Jane, I really doubt this impacts Letang’s future. In fact, the trade of Whitney indicated to me that Shero in fact did consider Letang and Goligoski part of the core. Remember, when Letang needs extended, Eaton and Gonchar will be off the books, creating cap space. Letang is going nowhere.

    @Bag, thanks for the news!

12. Matt Bodenschatz

    Jun 17, 10:19 PM

    @Bag, to clarify, that is a similar report I had read several weeks ago and wrote about here.

    Strait has decided to turn pro, but has not yet been signed. I have it on good authority that he won’t be able to sign until July 1, but that the deal will happen soon after.

13. bag o' pucks

    Jun 17, 10:42 PM

    Yes, I did intend to type that he has decided to sign with Pittsburgh. My bad.

    Frankly, I think Carl Sneep should/should have turn(ed) pro, as well. But I think he’s a lock to return to school.

14. Superfan99

    Jun 18, 02:11 AM

    Not sure why we’re not just calling Scuderi “The Piece.” It’s silly to refuse use of a moniker that solid. C’mon.

15. DaBich

    Jun 18, 06:23 AM

    Scuds, is indeed a solid piece of this team, I hope he stays!

16. Pens1967

    Jun 18, 07:13 AM

    I was reading Brian Metzer over at Hockeybuzz and just randomly clicked on a story about Carolina’s free agent wishes. The blogger who wrote it discussed Scuderi and wondered if Scuds didn’t play over his head in the playoffs and would revert to the form of a 4/5 d-man next year and beyond. I mean Scuds is a good defender and knows his role on this team, but, let’s face it, there are many defensive defensemen of his ilk around.

17. Moq

    Jun 18, 08:00 AM

    @Matt, I don’t have a problem with the Goligoski contract. It might be a bit more than I expected, but paying a little extra for potential has been a recent trend in the NHL. Goligoski could easily be a steal within a year.

    With regards to Scuderi, I don’t think he’s worth $2.5M/year and there’ll be cheaper options available with similar abilities in free agency. Don’t forget that if everything remains the same we could have a $4.3M/year third pairing. That’s a luxury we can’t afford with our backs against the salary cap ceiling.

    I’m not claiming it’s impossible to keep Scuderi, or that Shero doesn’t have the wits for an intricate master plan. He clearly does. But at sheer face value without knowledge of imminent trades or cheap contracts in place, it’s a bad idea to offer Scuderi a lot of money and years.

18. ryans

    Jun 18, 08:48 AM

    Letang has to take priority over Scuderi. We all love ‘The Piece,’ but I think Letang’s potential is very high to become an elite 2 way defensemen in the next two seasons.

19. Two Sheds

    Jun 18, 09:15 AM

    I think it’s pretty clear that at least one of them — Gill and Scuderi — is gone next year, almost no matter what they’re willing to settle for. They’re not paying Gologoski $1.8M per year to be the seventh defenseman and get healthy scratched every night. With Gonchar, Eaton, Letang and Orpik already in place, and now Gologoski, that’s one place for two defensemen. And if you believe that Ben Lovejoy is ready, which many people do, then maybe you let them both go. Lovejoy looks like he had a great year at WB (he was +43 which way led the league). Maybe you figure on him coming up and using the money from Gill and Scuderi to extend Letang and Gonchar. Offing their salaries next year might let you keep guys like Guerin and Fedotenko around on 1 or 2 year contracts, too.

20. Matt Bodenschatz

    Jun 18, 10:07 AM

    @Bag, no worries.

    @Superfan, the writers at FF tend to avoid nicknames so-as to be certain our readers know who we are writing about.

    @Dabich, he’s the top priority, in my opinion.

    @Pens, I don’t doubt Scuderi played a bit over his head in the playoffs. But I also don’t think falling back to his normal skill level is a big drop. I’ve said all season long that he is one of the best penalty killers and defensive defensemen in the league. There are many defensemen in the NHL who focus exclusively on defense and do it well, but few are as capable as Scuderi. If he goes, Shero will be able to replace him relatively well with a cheaper player, but the quality won’t be as high.

    @Moq, I agree. Goligoski may be a steal by mid-season. Let’s not forget that he was doing a very nice job on the power play for the first half of the season until Whitney returned. A year older, more mature and more experienced should make him a more confident player and, therefore, a better player. As for Scuderi, I think, in terms of years, two or three should be the max, and if he signs for three, he may very well take less than $2.5 per year.

    @Ryan, I think many are overlooking the fact that Letang has another year left on his contract. He is not a priority right now, as he already is on the team for the 2009-10 season. The priorities are to fill out the roster for the upcoming season, then work on contract extensions for guys like Letang. Also, remember that Gonchar and Eaton will become unrestricted free agents next summer (the same time Letang’s current contract ends), meaning money will be freed up to keep Letang on board. He is going absolutely nowhere.

    @Two, decent idea, though I’m slightly skeptical of having two young/inexperienced players on the blueline. Using your top-six, we’d be looking at pairings of Gonchar-Orpik, Letang-Lovejoy, Eaton-Goligoski. On paper, they look pretty good. But it concerns me a bit. The only way I’d consider this is if a veteran such as Boucher would stick around on the cheap to be the seventh defenseman. If Gonchar, Orpik, Eaton or Letang would get injured and no veteran was on the roster, we’d be looking at a third inexperienced defender, and that’s bad news.

21. Two Sheds

    Jun 18, 10:25 AM

    @Matt, I’m not wild about having two inexperienced defensemen either, and I’m not sure who the 7th would be — and you certainly need at least 7 NHL-ready defensemen going into a season. It would be great if you could get a guy like Boucher cheap, or maybe pick up some other veteran defenseman as the teams do their roster cuts before the season starts. But I think the Penguins are going to try to lock up Gonchar and Letang with extensions this summer and I don’t know that they want to sign either Gill or Scuderi to a 3+ year pretty high dollar contract too. You might have to roll the dice with more inexperienced guys at the start of the season and figure that by the first of they year they won’t be so inexperienced anymore.

    Eaton’s contract is up next year, I think, so maybe they could make Lovejoy the 7th defenseman and have him replace Eaton then.

    In any case, at least one of Gill and Scuderi is gone. I think Shero signed Gologoski first to make sure that he could let another defenseman go. And if your dollars come down to, say, Scuderi or Fedotenko, do you go Scuderi there? I don’t think that’s an easy call.

22. Matt Bodenschatz

    Jun 18, 10:49 AM

    @Two, here’s my biggest concern. The Penguins are loaded offensively. Even with Crosby and Malkin skating with scrubs, this team will be better offensively than half (if not more) of the teams in the NHL. Add in Gonchar, Goligoski, Letang, and guys like Kunitz, Kennedy and Staal, and you’ll see that the offense isn’t a big problem — even though wingers are needed.

    On defense, it would be a big blow to lose the team’s top two defensive defensemen and penalty killers and replace them with an offense-only defender (Goligoski) and a cast-off veteran or a rookie (Lovejoy). Defense wins, and so, therefore, I think a priority has to be to fill that in before worrying about offense — or at least save money for the defense while signing offense.

23. Two Sheds

    Jun 18, 11:16 AM

    @Matt, If the dollars can be made to work, I think signing Scuderi, replacing Gill with Goligoski and figuring Lovejoy will replace Eaton after next year might be the way to go. Even at that, that’s only seven defensemen — I’m not sure who’s in the pipeline after Lovejoy.

    A lot is going to come down to the dollars, though. Scuderi made $750K this year and he rightfully is going to want to cash in. He’s pretty much in the prime of his career, too, unlike Gill who isn’t going to be getting any faster. If Scuderi stays the pairings are something like Gonchar/Orpik, Letang/Eaton and Scuderi/Goligoski (I put these two together because Goligoski is the weakest defensively). Which is your third pair there — probably Scuderi/Goligoski. How much can you pay your #5 defenseman? During the regular season there’s a higher premium on offense — the value of guys like Scuderi isn’t as evident until the playoffs roll around. There’s a reason everyone was saying how much money Scuderi had made himself with his play in the playoffs — that’s because the playoffs are when defense comes to the front. Prior to them, would anyone have been talking about the need to keep him?

    Of course, in the playoffs he was indeed great.

24. bag o' pucks

    Jun 18, 11:45 AM

    During the ’08 Finals Orpik had that monster shift in game three that propelled the Pens to a big win. Four crushing hits in 15 seconds. That shift was so high profile and dominant it was donned, “the million dollar shift” because it, by itself, may have gotten Orpik an additional million per year on his next contract.

    Scuds work at the end of game six will do the same thing for him. If, just for instance, Fleury was in position and makes those final saves to preserve the win we’re talking about Scuds next contract in the $1.5M range. But, after Scuds makes a stick save, then a knee save, then a skate save in the waning moments, that was played over and over on NBC, here we are talking about Scuds getting in the neighborhood of $2.5M.

    My best guess, he takes a 3-yr, 6.75M deal. And the Pens happily pay that.

25. Matt Bodenschatz

    Jun 18, 11:59 AM

    @Two, good points again. Check out the newly-added roster report to see who is in the pipeline. After Lovejoy, I’m not sure there is anyone who is signed and NHL capable…yet. Grant may get to that level quickly, but he’s still a question mark. Bringing back Mormina, Wozniewski or another “veteran” player capable of hopping from the AHL to the NHL during a time of injury may be necessary.

    I agree that this all comes down to money. If Scuds wants too much, he’s gone. But I think looking at pairings as one, two, and three is a bit skewed — just as I feel looking at Staal as a third line center is skewed. Assuming the pairings are as you suggested, consider the following. Gonchar and Orpik will log the most minutes, so I can be comfortable calling them the top pair. But Letang and Eaton will likely get similar minutes to Scuderi and Goligoski. In fact, Goligoski very well may get more minutes than, say, Orpik. It’s not what pairing the player is on, but rather how many minutes he plays and in which situations he plays. Scuderi may fall into the “third” pairing, but his role is much greater.

    As for your playoff comment, I agree entirely. Playoff hockey becomes defensive hockey, which is exactly why Scuderi was showcased. It also is the perfect reason to re-sign him. The Penguins will be back in the playoffs and will need good defense to repeat. Letting Scuderi walk is a step in the wrong direction on defense. It may be inevitable if he wants too much, but if he can be had for $2.5 or $2.75, I think the move has to be made, as he has proven more than capable of stepping up on the biggest stage.

26. Pens1967

    Jun 18, 12:18 PM

    The P-G had a story today saying that extending Gonchar and Letang are top priorities and that the Pens will let Gill and Scuderi walk.

27. Matt Bodenschatz

    Jun 18, 12:54 PM

    @Pens, I believe the article you are referring to was in the Tribune-Review.

    I do everything I can to avoid ripping the Pittsburgh media, as I don’t find it to be worthwhile. However, Rob Rossi is about as reliable as Eklund when it comes to predictions. More often than not, he formulates things in his head, then prints them as fact rather than as opinion. This is the perfect example.

    I don’t doubt Shero will aim to extend Letang and Gonchar this summer — but I do doubt that Rossi has been given any indication by anyone in the organization that Scuderi and Gill won’t be retained. It may ultimately end up being true, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut on occasion.

28. Two Sheds

    Jun 18, 02:37 PM

    @Matt, I’d be surprised if Goligoski got more minutes than Orpik. Unless he beats out Letang or Gonchar he won’t be on the #1 powerplay (though I think he might beat out Letang), and he’s very unlikely to do much penalty killing, where I think you’ll see more of Orpik in the absence of Gill.

    Do you think they should extend Gonchar, and if so for how many years and at what kind of cap hit? There is obviously a lot to like about him, and goodness knows he’s much better than he was when he first got here. But he makes a lot of money and in a year or two will be more replaceable than some of the other guys on the team…

29. Matt Bodenschatz

    Jun 18, 02:43 PM

    @Two, my apologies. I meant Scuderi may gte more minutes than Orpik. I agree, Goligoski definitely won’t. Of the defenders, he’ll log the least icetime.

    I’m iffy on Gonchar. To re-sign, he must take a paycut. I’ll continue in a few…must go for now.

30. Matt Bodenschatz

    Jun 18, 04:05 PM

    Back to what I was saying. Gonchar would have to take a paycut to re-sign here, as the team just doesn’t have the money to spend big bucks on an aging defender, no matter how good he is. Off the top of my head, I want to say he is right around 35. If I am correct, it would mean any contract he signs will count against the cap regardless of whether he plays or retires. That means a short-term, one or two year deal is all he would be worth. Now, if he is under 35 — and I don’t have the time to check — I would do a Zetterberg deal that would take him beyond retirement, thus bringing his cap hti down overall and also taking his cap hit off the books when he retires. Something like five years and $15.5 million — $5 million, $4 million, $3 million, $2 million, $1.5 million. Shero will have to be creative.

    @Tom, I’ll be surprised if Mormina is retained to an AHL only contract, more surprised if he gets a two-way contract, and even more surprised yet if he actually steps foot in the NHL. He’s a good AHL defender, but he doesn’t belong in the NHL. And I am very aware of his AHL stats.

31. Two Sheds

    Jun 18, 05:49 PM

    @Matt, Gonchar is 35, meaning he’d be 36 next year when this contract is up. Two or three more years maybe? That’s getting up there. If he’s not on the top power play at some point down the road (i.e., Goligoski gets his spot), then I think his value diminishes that much more. I think he’d have to take a pretty substantial cut for Shero to sign him.

    I’m not sure how those Zetterberg contracts work if the player doesn’t actually decide to retire. Don’t they have to cut him then, and then pay him and take the cap hit?

    @Tom, I hope Mormina is as good as you say he is. Maybe this season we’ll get a chance to see how the AHL stats translate to the NHL.

32. Matt Bodenschatz

    Jun 18, 07:35 PM

    @Two, I kind of assumed Gonchar was 35, but didn’t have time to look it up at work. The idea of those long contracts that start big and taper to a small amount`is that, if the player retires, the team got a great contract, and if he plays to the end, the team still gets a good contract. The waning salary from year one and beyond allows the player to collect money up front while keeping the cap hit low.

    @Tom, I sure hope you’re right, but everything I’ve read of him indicates that he is a career minor leaguer. And at age 27 and coming off of an AHL-only contract, I highly doubt he is better than Gill, let along Scuderi — you know, the number one PK pairing on the Stanley Cup champs. He’s not a prospect.

    Even if he is signed to an NHL contract, look at the numbers, the Pens won’t have room for him in the top six. Gonchar, Orpik, Eaton, Letang and Goligoski are going nowhere — especially if the Pens can’t/don’t retain one of Scuderi, Gill and Boucher. That leaves two spots and the common consensus is Lovejoy is the next best behind Goligoski, so he gets the sixth spot. The best Mormina can do is 7th defenseman, and my guess is Shero will be looking for someone with a little NHL experience to fill that void — not another rookie with zero experience despite being 27.

33. Jane

    Jun 18, 07:43 PM

    @ Two Sheds, I tend to think Gologoski would eventually take Gonchar’s place in the first power play unit, along with Letang. I don’t think he would replace Letang on that unit. Hopefully, Letang will keep getting better and I thought that Letang and Gologoski played well together on the power play unti during the playoffs when Gonchar was injured. It almost seemed like Letang played better, he wasn’t as hesitant as he is with Gonchar.

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