Home Cooking Always Is Best
Matt Bodenschatz | Pittsburgh Penguins
Jun 18, 10:56 PM | Hype this story!
As we embark on free agency, set to begin just under two weeks from now on July 1, Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Ray Shero has his work cut out for him.
But what else is new.
One year ago, Shero was faced with the nightmare of losing Marian Hossa, Ryan Malone, Brooks Orpik, Gary Roberts, Ty Conklin, Jarkko Ruutu and others to free agency.
And just when things looked bleak — Malone and Roberts had been traded to Tampa Bay and Marian Hossa had signed with Detroit — Shero worked his magic to retain Orpik and bring in several low key, yet high reward free agents.
His recipe was a success, as the Penguins emerged as Stanley Cup Champions after a tumultuous season.
This summer, the free agents are quite as prominent. There is no world-class winger, no hometown hero, and no folk legend.
Instead, there is a quiet, yet spectacular defensive defenseman in Rob Scuderi; an aging, yet youthful veteran in Bill Guerin; and an under-the-radar, yet clutch winger in Ruslan Fedotenko.
Now it is time for a new recipe, one that calls for some home cooking.
With a Stanley Cup victory fresh in our minds, it may be easy to think that losing several non-core players won’t be a big deal. Heck, the Penguins lost several superstars one year ago and did the unthinkable.
But the reality is, the more players Shero can retain and the fewer players he must seek through free agency, the better off the Penguins will be.
Already, Alex Goligoski has re-signed. Now it is time to lock in some of the others.
Without getting into the team payroll and without crunching numbers, I’d like to take a quick look at the team’s free agents and give my opinion as to whether or not they should be retained.
In alphabetical order…
Craig Adams may not seem like an important player — after all, he was placed on waivers at the trade deadline — but this veteran brought Cup experience to the locker room and a tenacity to the ice that was lacking. As a fourth liner, he’ll likely have a cheap pricetag, one the Penguins should pay.
Phillipe Boucher spent most of his time in Pittsburgh watching games from the press box, and when he did make it onto the ice, he rarely impressed with his All Star skills of two years ago. Unless he is willing to sign for an extreme discount to be the team’s seventh defenseman, he’ll likely hit free agency.
Ruslan Fedotenko often goes unnoticed, as he isn’t overly flashy, isn’t overly physical, and isn’t overly vocal. But this rosy-cheeked Ukrainian had a quiet, yet productive season that translated into a clutch playoff performance. In the salary cap era, he is the perfect second line winger, one the Penguins should seek to retain.
Mathieu Garon didn’t get much of a chance to introduce himself to the city of Pittsburgh, but his time here surely will be a memorable one for the backup goaltender. As a veteran, he likely provided mentorship for the young Marc-Andre Fleury, but as a veteran, he’ll likely be a luxury the Penguins can’t afford.
Hal Gill is slowing down as he ages, making him less effective against speedy teams. Even so, his penalty killing is stellar, and his ability to move bodies in front of the net is something the Penguins sorely lack. Unfortunately, unless Scuderi departs, Gill’s tenure in Pittsburgh likely has ended.
Bill Guerin wasn’t the most popular of acquisitions at the trade deadline. In fact, many Penguins fans were a bit disappointed when he was the prized piece for Shero. A few short months later Guerin has become quite popular both with fans and teammates. In a perfect world, he would be retained, but the cap space likely won’t be there for Guerin, who is coming off a $4.5 million per year contract.
Miroslav Satan was the key free agency signing one year ago, but his season went far from planned. After failing to mesh with Sidney Crosby, he was demoted to lower lines, then to the AHL before returning to Pittsburgh for the playoffs. He showed a great team mentality, but there just isn’t room or a need for him anymore.
Rob Scuderi has become one of the best defensive defensemen in the NHL. Sure, his skating, puck skills and physicality are average, but his positioning and hockey sense are phenomenal. Losing him would severely damage a defense that is comprised primarily of offensive-minded defenders. He should be Shero’s top priority, though not if the asking price skyrockets.
Petr Sykora has had a wonderful ride in Pittsburgh, scoring some clutch goals. But with the new style implemented by coach Dan Bylsma, he wasn’t able to find his groove. A goal scoring drought led to his eventual benching and likely his curtain call as a Penguin in Game Six of the Finals.
Mike Zigomanis may not have skated for the Penguins in the playoffs, or in the New Year for that matter, but the faceoff specialist was missed while out with a shoulder injury. Because of his injury, his asking price likely won’t be high, and because of his faceoffs skills, his value to this team is. Along with Adams, Zigomanis could/should make up two-thirds of a hard-working fourth line.
At this point, my filled out roster would look something like the following.
Kunitz-Crosby-Pesonen
Fedotenko-Malkin-Talbot
Cooke-Staal-Kennedy
Godard-Zigomanis-Adams
Orpik-Gonchar
Letang-Eaton
Scuderi-Goligoski
Fleury
Curry
Comments
KG
Jun 18, 11:32 PM
I am on the Steve Sullivan band wagon…He has the Nashville connection with Shero and he is just injured enough so he should be “cheap”
But he has the talent, and speed to play and produce big numbers with Sid…
I agree. I hope they find a way to bring Scuderi back. Can’t go crazy though. Same thing with Fedotenko and Guerin…Not much money to play with this off season…No fun! but I think we can accept it = )
bag o' pucks
Jun 18, 11:44 PM
That’s as good of a guess as any, Matt. I’m kinda leaning towards:
Kunitz-Crosby-Guerin
(Pesonen/Talbot)-Malkin-Tenko
Cooke-Staal-Kennedy
(Talbot/Pesonen)-Zigo-Adams/Godard
Sarge-Orpik
Eaton-Letang
Gogo-Scuds
Lovejoy
Fleury
Curry
It would be ideal if Pesonen can hack it on a scoring line because he has some skill and would be relatively inexpensive, though it’s highly unlikely he’d accept another two-way deal. If he stumbles, he becomes the 13th forward and can sit in the press box. I love Mad Max, but I’m not convinced he can play 82 on a scoring line. I think he’s best there in spot-duty. But, the Pens won’t likely have a ton of options. Hell, penciling in all of Guerin, Tenk & Scuds is probably folly, as it is.
I like all the kids to start the season in the A. They’ll all get a cup of coffee as the injuries hit. Most are actually more expensive than will be the likes of Pes, Zigo, Adams, etc. Planning on the youngsters starting in the N is not only foolish, but drains the system of depth.
Steve
Jun 19, 12:13 AM
I can’t envision a scenario where Ray Shero doesn’t bring in someone new in place of Sykora or Satan. The mood seems to be that Pascal Dupuis will be dealt which will clear more money. I’d like to think that Steve Sullivan or Kovalev would be good pickups and would want to come to the Pens.
Albert
Jun 19, 12:52 AM
Pesonen isn’t going to cut it as a Top 6 forward.
No.
Way.
Albert
Jun 19, 01:04 AM
Also, I don’t think Dupuis gets dealt. $1.4M doesn’t look that great to us, so it prob doesn’t look that great to anyone else either.
The Pens will try to sign Guerin. But I’m not sure he wants to play for what they can afford to pay (about $1.5-1.8M), w/c means you’ll prob have Dupuis back on Sid’s line w/ a possible deadline deal/rental winger for the playoffs.
That would give the following lines:
LW C RW
Kunitz Crosby Dupuis
Tenk Malkin Talbot
Cooke Staal Kennedy
Caputi Adams/Zigo Godard
If they sign both Adams/Zigo, great, but I’m not sure either can play LW. Pesonen could end up where I’ve penciled in Caputi. And some of the young guys will prob see spot opps there: CPZ and Tangradi — but nothing more than a few games here or there (barring injury) as it doesn’t sound like they are ready or would benefit for 4th line time.
Also, I think you may see Kennedy on Sid’s RW, with Dupuis moving down to the 3rd line—at least some of the time.
Finally, I agree that Talbot is prob not an 82 game Top 6 winger, but they don’t have many options at RW and he clicked w/ Malkin, so they prob start there, at least.
I agree w/ the Top 6 Ds—and Lovejoy as 7. Have to sign Scuderi though. 3 years for a Mario-like $6.6M sounds right to me. That would be a 300% salary increase for a guy who isn’t very fast, isn’t very strong at clearing the crease, isn’t a great passer, and never scores.
Moq
Jun 19, 07:38 AM
Albert, nice analysis. Even your conservative alterations with contracts to Fedotenko and Scuderi will get us close to the current salary cap number. At least according to my calculations.
Albert
Jun 19, 09:20 AM
MOQ – I agree, not much space under the cap. Here’s what I was looking at:
http://www.nhlnumbers.com/overview.php?team=PIT&season=0910
Which looks like the Pens have almost $9M…AFTER signing GoGo.
bag o' pucks
Jun 19, 11:19 AM
“...(Scuderi) isn’t very fast, isn’t very strong at clearing the crease, isn’t a great passer, and never scores.”
Some folks around here sure are quick to point out what they perceive as Scuderi’s faults. But all of these opinions matter exactly zero.
Results matter, nothing else, and the results are these: Scuderi plays the toughest minutes on the team, draws the assignment against the opponent’s best forwards, is the first deployed on the PP (frequently the only d-man on 5-on-3’s against), led the team in +/- (+23), takes about one minor penalty for every nine games played, scored nearly twice as many points as $2M/per year Eaton (who was +3 on the season), was second only to Sarge in playoff minutes, and under the post-season microscope was largely considered the best defender on the team that won the Stanley Cup.
I used Albert’s quote up top, but I’m not picking on him. $2.2M may be a good guess. I was aiming at around the same number, $2.25M, as the lowest possible number that it will take to re-sign Scuds (and still have a shot at Guerin & Fedo). But those who are suggesting that $1.5M will get it done are just clueless.
Two Sheds
Jun 19, 12:52 PM
You can’t view the salary cap as just a one year thing. Maybe they could sign Scuderi for $1.5M this year if they go to $2.5M next year and $3.5M the year after. The issue then becomes where does the money come from in subsequent years. I think the big numbers that could come off the payroll next year are Gonchar (like $5.5M?) and then Eaton (~$2M?). Balancing that, Letang’s salary is going to go up. So I think the question becomes what should the Penguins do with Gonchar? He’s one of the best all around defensemen in the league and his value to the Pens is very evident. Do you let him go next year so you can use the $$$ to maybe keep guys like Scuderi and Guerin this year?
Pens1967
Jun 19, 12:55 PM
IIRC, the P-G reported the other day that contract extentions for Gonchar and Letang are priorities for the Pens.
bag o' pucks
Jun 19, 01:48 PM
@Sheds, it doesn’t matter how you structure a player’s salary throughout a contract. The average annual salary of the contract is the so-called “cap number.”
For instance, Goligoski’s is a 3-yr, $5.5M contract. His cap number is $1.833333M for the next three years, even though the salary structure is heavily backloaded at $1.25M for the first year, $1.5M for the second, then $2.75M for the final year. Regardless of his salary, his cap number doesn’t change from the $1.833333M.
TheOneAndOnlySurge
Jun 19, 02:18 PM
@Alberts, where do you get the 9mil. They have about six with the current signed players. That includes the extension of Gogo and that is with only 17 signed players. Caputi and Jefferey are signed but not considered in that 6mil as they are believed to be AHLers and not count against the cap. If Scuderi is signed for 2 mil and Feds gets the supposed 2.4mil, they have near the 1.5 range left for 2 roster spots.
Moq
Jun 19, 03:40 PM
Let me my mock-up roster based partly on Alberts reasoning, recent rumours and cheap re-signings:
Kunitz (3.725) – Crosby (8.7) – Dupuis (1.4)
Fedotenko (2.4) – Malkin (8.7) – Talbot (1.05)
Cooke (1.2) – Staal (4) – Kennedy (0.725)
Adams (0.65) – Zigomanis (0.7) – Godard (0.75)
Gonchar (5) – Orpik (3.75)
Letang (0.835) – Eaton (2)
Goligoski (1.833) – Scuderi (2.2)
Lovejoy (0.9)
Fleury (5)
Curry (0.6)
Total: $56.12 mill.
It shows just how difficult the cap situation really is. Even with a conservative lineup.
TheOneAndOnlySurge
Jun 19, 04:28 PM
@MOQ, Not bad but your lineup exceeds the allowed cap limit. The cap limit may go up but as of now is estimated to be 55mil.
Chuck
Jun 19, 05:18 PM
It is pretty widely known that the Pens fully expect Tangradi and Caputi to play in WBS next year. And Pesonen is no longer in their plans. In order for the cap to work, Talbot has to be a second line winger, and the other 2 top 6 forward spots can not make more than 2-2.5 each. Scuds is gone. With how much they gave to Gogo, they can’t afford Scuds at anything above 1.75. And he is going to get way more than that on the open market.
Dupuis will be shopped. A lot of Pens fans look at him and say he is not worth the 1.4. This is true if he is a 4th liner. But for most teams he will be a third liner, and a 1.4 hit is not that bad for that position. There will be takers for him at the deadline.
Matt Bodenschatz
Jun 19, 05:44 PM
If the Penguins ice a roster with seven rookies, they won’t make the playoffs, let alone win the Stanley Cup.
Goligoski and maybe one or two rookies would be fine with me. More than that and the team is in trouble.
The cap situation is a bit concerning, but Ray Shero has been shrewd with his signings to date and likely will pull a rabbit or two out of his hat in order to ice a competitive team without draining the minor leagues of the top-level prospects all at one time.
Promoting so many rookies at one time will put the Penguins in a bad position one way or another. If they play as most rookies do, the Penguins will struggle to win and the players may regress in development. If they exceed expectations and help the Penguins win, they’ll be on the fast track to bigger contracts — ones the Penguins won’t be able to afford.
Staggering the promotion of prospects is extremely important in the salary cap era, as we are seeing right now with Goligoski and Letang. Goligoski took longer to get to the NHL and, thus, his annual salary is now set at an affordable $1.83 cap hit. Letang, meanwhile, will finish off his current contract after next season and will be due to make at least $3 million. Imagine if both players had peaked at the same time, both seeking $3 million contracts within a year of each other. Not a good scenario.
TheOneAndOnlySurge
Jun 19, 06:14 PM
@Matt, I think you really nailed it. This team has some great prospects lined up but they need to be patient. Signing guys to one and two year deals is ideal to allow these prospects to grow. If the Pens throw them into the fire, the Pens will be the ones that get burned. Stay the course on developing these guys.
@Chuck, unless you have some insight that the rest of us do not know, then don’t assume Pesonen is gone. He had a decent year of transition and will most likely get a small contract offer. If he bites, it could work well as he has a decent amount of skill. Money wasn’t this guys motivation to come here and likely won’t be the reason he leaves. He wants to play with the best and be the best. He wants a Stanley Cup of his own.
Scuderi is very underrated but you also can’t over rate him. Jeff Finger is a player that provides the same type of limited role that Scuderi has and he got 4 mil. Scuderi likely won’t get the 4mil but he could easily go for more than 2.2. This will be up to Scuderi but I could see the Pens offer him a 2mil contract. The term may also be a sell point if the Pens would say lock him up for 4 years. They could pay him more upfront and trail off as to keep the Cap hit at 2 mil. Maybe 4-2-1-1. This would also allow Eaton to walk after next year in place of either Mormina or Lovejoy. With that salary he would also be trade bait if the Pens need the cap room after next season.
Albert
Jun 19, 08:15 PM
I like MOQ’s mock-up and math.
The cap is supposed to be about $57.5M next year, so…under MOQ’s math, the Penguins would be 1.4M under — which they need to maneuver at the deadline.
Perfect.
PS
Godard serves his role perfectly.
Albert
Jun 19, 08:18 PM
I think it (MOQ’s mock up) also shows that the Pens cannot keep Tenk AND Guerin.
Its one or the other (unless Guerin signs for like 1.0M), and I think the preference is to have the younger Tenk.
Moq
Jun 19, 08:50 PM
Thank you for the responses, everyone.
The intention with my mock-roster example wasn’t to demonstrate my preferred roster but exemplify how even modest signings could get us into salary cap problems, whether the salary cap remains the same or goes down a million. I think a slight drop is the realistic scenario.
It’ll be interesting to see how Shero navigates the problems, ie. avoiding too many rookies in significant roles and sensible signings to complement the core.
Dabich
Jun 20, 12:39 PM
How about a feminine look at this? To assume Scuds or Feds are gone is jumping the gun. To say Scuds isn’t a good keep is silly. I’d like to think Scuds could be signed for less than $4M per…and I really think Surge has a good way of doing it. Feds has won the cup with two teams…doesn’t that tell you something? Perhaps we can fit him in as well, Shero should see to it.
Guerin…I love his way of keeping the team on even keel in the locker room. Perhaps he could be persuaded to say for a season at $1M to $1.5M and offered a job in the organization. The guy has a lot to offer.
Pushing the AHL’s up IMHO isn’t a good idea. Let them grow properly so they can come to their full potential.
Also, we never did give Pesonen a good chance to show us what he has. I feel he should be given a legit opportunity.
OK, that’s all for now.
bag o' pucks
Jun 20, 02:36 PM
Agreed, Dabs. I imagine if Scuds goes to July 1, someone will throw a $3M/yr deal at him. Maybe even the Isles playing the hometown card. That’s more than the Pens can afford for him, though Scuds has made no secret that he wants to stay.
I think the Pens will be able to keep two of the three of Scuds, Tenk, and Guerin. It’s also a poorly kept secret that Chuck Fletcher, now in Minnesota, covets Ben Lovejoy. If the Pens can sign Scuds, perhaps Shero can package Dupuis with Lovejoy and send them to Minny for a good pick. The bad news is that Minny has no 2nd or 3rd rd picks this year and they’re certainly not going to part with their 12th OA (nor should they).
However, if Shero cannot sign Scuds he won’t part with Lovejoy, and he’d still be in the market for a capable 7th d-man. That wouldn’t be too tall of a task in FA.
DaBich
Jun 20, 08:56 PM
Pucks, I wish I knew more about Lovejoy, I’ll take your word for it all.
Either way, I still would like to keep Scuds. He’s dependable.
Nick
Jun 21, 12:49 AM
Not going to add all the number crunching or planned pairings yet, still alot to go through this offseason, and it’s only been 9 days since Pens won the CUP!!!!! Still riding that high!
Only going to offer this; losing Gill and Dupuis (if he is dealt) will greatly depreciate the PK.
Go Pens!!!!
TheOneAndOnlySurge
Jun 21, 02:45 AM
@Tom, interesting post. Biggest flaw are your salaries to Guerin and Scuderi. The Pens will not sign either player to that high of a salary. If those players seek those salaries, well then they are as good as gone. However, that still won’t put the Pens in a situation that they would start 4 rookies. Just not going to happen. They will seek some other alternatives and yes that may mean a trade. It is however, unlikely that any of the core is changed. That being Staal, Malkin, Crosby, Fleury, Gonchar, Letang and Goligoski. That leaves them with little to offer but they won’t be looking for much through a trade. It will most likely be to unload a player like Dupuis whoses 1.4mil hurts on a fourth line. Either way it will be highly unlikely that the Pens start the season with four rookies in key roles.
Pens1967
Jun 21, 07:46 AM
I’ve read that both Pesonen and the Pens have an interest in re-signing. Pesonen showed his scoring pedigree was no fluke during his year at WBS. Now that Crosby has Kunitz on his wing to do a lot of the banging and crashing, Pesonen is the kind of finisher that would work with those two.
Plus, I also understand that Pesonen is good defensively and tougher than his size might lead one to believe.
Moq
Jun 21, 09:40 AM
Tom, I think you’re advocating a bit too many rookies in the lineup, especially defensively.
There’s a few potentially affordable FA alternatives to Scuderi (at least on paper), eg. Alberts, Seidenberg, Vaananen, Montador, Zanon, Koistinen, and probably a few more with adequate skill and experience for a third pairing role. I don’t think Shero will turn to Mormina as anything but the 7th defenceman at best this season.
Pesonen could be a good alternative to Dupuis playing top-line minutes. Bylsma knows him and there’s a season of AHL success under his belt. It’ll be interesting to watch to say the least.
Colin44
Jun 21, 10:33 AM
I think an interesting point that no one has touched on is how shero will handle a potential drop in next year’s salary cap. The pens will have to either sign many of this year’s free agents to one-year deals or dump salary next year because every player who isn’t a free agent this year is signed through 2011 except for letang and he will be looking at a raise. If the pens don’t play a ton of rookies this year they may truly be forced to in 2010.
Colin44
Jun 21, 08:54 PM
Forgot about gonchar and eaton’s contracts. But gonchar played with a partial mcl tear, which takes much less time to heal (6 to 8 weeks) than a complete tear. That should mean he is back before the season starts, but I still think lovejoy should have a spot on the NHL roster. I was at his first game and he looked like a veteran out there. He was calm and his positioning was good. I would almost take him over scuderi at this point.
TheOneAndOnlySurge
Jun 22, 04:56 PM
@Tom, you are absolutely insane if don’t think Gonchars shoulder was fully recovered by the end of the playoffs. His rifle of a shot was there durning the Washington series but due to the knee injury it became harder for him to get the leverage he needed from that point on. It wasn’t an injured shoulder but the knee that prevented the hard point shot.
I will agree that he (Gonchar) might miss some of the regular season or at least not be 100%. That being said I would still plan on seeing him in games by the end of November if not before. If Scuderi can’t be signed the Pens will sign another D man to fill his role. It won’t be Mormina, all though I could see him getting a few games under his belt before the end of the season. Lovejoy will most definetly get to play if he stays, if Scuderi doesn’t sign he will almost definetly be in a training camp battle to be the sixth D man. Not a guarantee but more like Letang two years ago.
The forward position seems to be where the fog lies. On one hand you could see the Pens making a strong move to keep Fedotenko and Guerin but on the other hand you could see them going with Pesonen and a free agent. This becomes even more complicated with Dupuis. Dupuis is far from a liability but on a strong team finds himself stuck on the 4th line. Dupuis has to go in order for this team to be strong. The Pens need his 1.4m to compensate for the other players pay raises. If Dupuis stays it will hurt the top six. It may also frustrate Malkin/Crosby who where just starting to get use to quality wingers.
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