Statistically Speaking: A Look At Marc-Andre Fleury

Contributing Writers | Pittsburgh Penguins

Oct 11, 07:56 PM | Hype this story!

The following statistical analysis of Pittsburgh Penguins goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury was prepared by Chris Boersma of Hockey Numbers specifically for Faceoff Factor. Boersma is a 23-year-old college student at SFU majoring in math and minoring in economics. He can be reached at webmaster AT javaplus.cjb.net.

Now on to the analysis…

There have been 11 goals scored on Marc-Andre Fleury in three games. You can see the one statistically-bad goal (number 4) came from 60 feet out on the powerplay. Could there have been a major screen? None of the shots appear to have been rebounds.


  Situation Distance Type Odds
1 Even Strength 38 feet Wrist Shot 8.1%
2 Even Strength 8 feet Deflection 37.6%
3 Even Strength 8 feet Wrist Shot 11.0%
4* Power Play 60 feet Slap Shot 2.4%
5 Power Play 13 feet Tip-In 45.6%
6 Even Strength 33 feet Wrist Shot 11.2%
7 Power Play 16 feet Backhand Shot 5.8%
8 Even Strength 15 feet Wrist Shot 8.1%
9 Short Handed 29 feet Slap Shot 7.3%
10 Even Strength 30 feet Wrist Shot 12.5%
11 Even Strength 39 feet Snap Shot 11.2%

At this point, this season’s statistics for goalies are worthless. For example, Fleury’s save percentage of .869 is better than Vancouver Canucks goalie Roberto Luongo’s, which sits at .863. Both of these goalies finished in the top three in wins last year, and Luongo is widely recognized as one of the top two goaltenders in the NHL.

There are very few 19- to 22-year-old goaltenders (or players for that matter) in the NHL. For the most part players hit a sort of peak at the age of 24, though players still get better each year until age 30, but at a much slower rate.

Most young goalies cannot compete with the back-ups that are currently in the league so they are relegated to the AHL until they are older and more mature.

Here are a few of the young goalies I found. Pay attention to the development as opposed to comparing statistics. For example, in Patrick Roy’s days, a .900 save percentage was great goaltending, whereas today it is average, at best.

  Patrick Roy Roberto Luongo Martin Brodeur Marc-Andre Fleury
Age
19
20
21
22
23
24

SV% GAA SO W
X X X X
.875 3.35 1 22
.892 2.93 1 23
.900 2.90 3 22
.908 2.47 4 33
.912 2.53 3 31
SV% GAA SO W
X X X X
X X X X
.904 3.25 1 7
.920 2.44 5 12
.915 2.77 4 16
.918 2.71 6 20
SV% GAA SO W
.882 3.35 0 2
X X X X
.915 2.40 3 27
.902 2.45 3 19
.911 2.34 6 34
.927 1.88 10 37
SV% GAA SO W
.896 3.64 1 4
X X X X
.898 3.25 1 13
.906 2.83 5 40
X X X X
X X X X

As mentioned above, this year’s statistics are worthless at this point, given the small number of games played. Give it time. By the end of the year Fleury will have a .910 save percentage and a 2.7 goals-against average.

Comments

  1. DaBich

    Oct 12, 07:16 AM

    Interesting…

    I can’t help but wonder how Dominik Hasek would fare in this line-up…but then, he was a late bloomer…so he just wouldn’t fit.

  2. Matt Bodenschatz

    Oct 12, 08:34 AM

    Exactly, he would not, and that’s why he wasn’t included. I believe Hasek became an NHL starter at age 27 (roughly) and was a backup long before that.

    Also, worth pointing out is that Fleury remains 22 until November. So he still has a full year until he reaches his “statistical peak” year. At his current pace — at least statistically — he is doing just fine and improving significantly with each year he gets older.

    Stats don’t tell the whole truth, but this certainly sheds some light on how his improving stats compare to those of some well-established NHL goaltenders.

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