Penguins Vs. The Eastern Conference

Matt Bodenschatz | Pittsburgh Penguins

Jan 7, 09:48 AM | Hype this story!

After a few weeks away from the standing reviews, much has changed. During the last look, the Pittsburgh Penguins were sitting in fourth place in the Atlantic Division and eighth place in the Eastern Conference, with no true grip on their rank.

Now, just three weeks later, things have changed significantly.

It’s difficult to find a team in the NHL that is playing as well as the Penguins are right now. With six consecutive wins, and eight wins in their last 10 games, their season certainly has taken a turn for the better.

Just one point behind the New Jersey Devils for first place in the division, the Penguins also have a three-point buffer zone between the third place New York Rangers.

The division is close, but the Penguins are surging while the New York Rangers and Philadelphia Flyers are faltering. In other words, the Penguins picked the perfect time to get hot.

On a larger scale, the Penguins are doing just as well. They’ve climbed from eighth to fourth in the East, and as mentioned above, are just one point behind the Devils, who occupy second place. And, with a four-point lead over the eighth place Flyers, their grasp on a playoff spot is growing stronger and stronger.

But enough analysis, check it out…

Atlantic Division Standings
  GP W L OTL Pts GF GA Home Away Div L 10 Streak
New Jersey 41 23 15 3 49 101 97 12-5-0 11-10-3 7-7-3 6-4-0 1 loss
Pittsburgh 41 23 16 2 48 120 114 12-8-2 11-8-0 4-10-1 8-2-0 6 wins
NY Rangers 42 20 17 5 45 102 104 13-8-0 7-9-5 10-4-0 4-4-2 3 losses
Philadelphia 39 20 15 4 44 118 110 8-5-4 12-10-0 6-5-1 4-4-2 1 win
NY Islanders 40 20 16 4 44 98 110 13-7-2 7-9-2 9-5-0 5-3-2 2 losses
   
Eastern Conference Standings
  GP W L OTL Pts GF GA Home Away Div L 10 Streak
Ottawa 41 27 10 4 58 148 116 13-6-2 14-4-2 12-2-0 6-3-1 2 wins
New Jersey 41 23 15 3 49 101 97 12-5-0 11-10-3 17-7-3 6-4-0 1 loss
Carolina 44 21 19 4 46 134 141 10-8-2 11-11-2 9-8-1 4-5-1 1 loss
Pittsburgh 41 23 16 2 48 120 114 12-8-2 11-8-0 4-10-1 8-2-0 6 wins
Montreal 41 20 13 8 48 126 117 7-7-5 13-6-3 9-7-1 5-2-3 1 loss
Boston 41 21 16 4 46 108 108 11-6-2 10-10-2 6-6-2 4-5-1 3 wins
NY Rangers 42 20 17 5 45 102 104 13-8-0 7-9-5 10-4-0 4-4-2 3 losses
Philadelphia 39 20 15 4 44 118 110 8-5-4 12-10-0 6-5-1 4-4-2 1 win
NY Islanders 40 20 16 4 44 98 110 13-7-2 7-9-2 9-5-0 5-3-2 2 losses
Atlanta 43 21 21 1 43 124 142 11-10-0 10-11-1 9-7-0 6-4-0 1 wins
Buffalo 40 19 18 3 41 120 117 11-8-1 8-10-2 6-8-1 4-4-2 6 losses
Florida 42 19 20 3 41 104 115 9-9-2 10-11-1 8-7-1 5-4-1 1 loss
Toronto 42 16 18 8 40 120 136 8-8-5 8-10-3 4-6-4 2-6-2 2 losses
Washington 42 17 20 5 39 117 131 8-10-1 9-10-4 8-7-2 5-2-3 1 win
Tampa Bay 42 15 22 5 35 121 144 12-8-2 3-14-3 9-9-1 1-7-2 7 losses

Comments

  1. DaBich

    Jan 7, 10:32 AM

    Ride the wave and hope it doesn’t stop.

  2. Ben

    Jan 7, 12:01 PM

    Well, last time I said I didn’t think the projections would hold up, but it’s taken less time than I thought for things to change. Here are the current projections to 82 games based on current rates:

    Ottawa: 116
    New Jersey : 98
    Carolina : 92
    Pittsburgh: 96 [46 wins]
    Montreal: 96 [40 wins]
    Philadelphia: 93
    Boston: 92
    NY Islanders: 90
    ————————————-
    NY Rangers: 87
    Buffalo: 84
    Atlanta: 82
    Florida: 80
    Toronto: 78
    Washington: 76
    Tampa Bay: 68

    This makes the playoff cutoff 90 points. At this rate, I’m going to change my earlier prediction: I think there is a good chance that 92 points will again be the playoff cutoff in the Eastern Conference. Earlier in the season (only half a month ago, really!) more teams hanging in there, but we’re now seeing a bunch of teams start to drop off in their wins, and as a result, the points spread from 8th to 15th is increasing.

    I previously said that there was no real punching bag in the Conference. Well, it now seems like the Southeast Division in general is becoming the Conference’s punching bag, with Tampa Bay getting the most beat up in the mess.

    The real questions are whether the teams that are doing well continue to do so, and whether the teams that are faltering will pick it up, or continue a downward spiral. In particular, the Pens haven’t faced a divisional opponent in a while, and their record inside the Atlantic isn’t too hot. Buffalo and the Rangers, by contrast, are two teams that should be doing better than they are.

    In the end, I think the big turning point will be the trading deadline. By then, the management for all the teams will have decided if they’re buying or selling. The teams that sell will most likely see a drop-off, while the buyers will get into the real dogfight for playoff positioning.

    How about we see another one of these articles on February 27th? I think that is when things will really be interesting.

  3. Matt Bodenschatz

    Jan 7, 12:10 PM

    Ben, great analysis! I’ll be putting together a weekly look at standings — I slacked during the holidays. Things are becoming important now, and the playoff picture is taking shape. I’d appreciate it if you continued to provide your analysis with each look at the standings.

    Thanks!

  4. Jesse Marshall

    Jan 7, 12:27 PM

    Ben, how is Tampa playing so poorly when Vinny is doing so well!?

  5. Ashley Gallant

    Jan 7, 12:44 PM

    Pittsburgh/Montréal match-up…I can imagine all the smack talk with my friends around here haha

    I agree, great analysis Ben!

    I wouldn’t mind if Ben’s projections came true come April (obviously), but pretty much all teams in the NHL have been streaky this year. Look at Buffalo – they had a great winning streak going on in December, and now they have lost 6 straight. Hopefully the Pens won’t end this fantastic winning streak with an equally long losing streak.

  6. DaBich

    Jan 7, 02:29 PM

    Fantastic, Ben. Love the info you presented here.
    Ashley, I hope the Pens don’t slack off either!

  7. Ben

    Jan 7, 08:45 PM

    Honestly, the projections I’m using are just simple math: current points / current games * 82 -> projected points at end of season.
    Do the same with wins.

    It’s obviously not a very good predictor, since many teams get hot in the last half of the season while others slow down, but it does give an interesting look at how the season really would end if the current victory rate for each team stayed the same through the rest of the year.

    I mostly find it interesting in terms of comparing how various teams are doing, since the projection adjusts for number of games played. It also makes for a better comparison for how a team is doing than checking against how they did last year, since the standings are highly dependent on how all the teams do this year, and not just our favorite one.

    Oh, and just for Jesse – these projections can’t really tell that, except to say that Tampa Bay clearly isn’t winning games, even if Vinny is scoring like crazy. At a guess? All of Tampa’s scoring is coming from Vinny’s line, and that’s just not enough (kind of like how it wasn’t enough for the Pens when all the offense was coming solely from Crosby, Malkin and Sykora).

  8. Ashley Gallant

    Jan 8, 06:14 AM

    I just wanted to add that Vinny is scoring like crazy, but it’s mostly coming at home and not on the road – and it’s the road games that are really killing the Lightning.

  9. Matt Bodenschatz

    Jan 8, 08:25 AM

    Ben, I think you hit the nail on the head. Projecting the points out over a full 82-game season is nice for comparing teams now and comparing them to this point last season, but in the long run, it means very little in regards to the possibility of a playoff push. As you said, teams too often get hot (as the Penguins did between my last look at the standings and this one), which skews the view. Regardless, I like it, no matter how simple it is to execute.

    As for Tampa Bay, I think that team is the perfect example of how not to build a success team around superstars. They put too much money into three or four players and now are paying for it in the standings. Sure, one of those players is leading the league in scoring, but another is worst in the league in plus/minus — not a good thing.

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