Bill Guerin? Paul Kariya? Who Would YOU Sign?
Mike Adams | Pittsburgh Penguins
Jun 29, 10:08 AM | Hype this story!
Bill Guerin and Paul Kariya will be two of the most prominent wingers available when the free agent frenzy commences at noon EDT on Sunday. Many people feel the Penguins need to find a winger to play with either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. The question is whether Guerin or Kariya is the answer.
The first place to look is playoff performance. It is pretty much a given that the Pens will be in the playoffs for the next few seasons. So, yes, they need guys who perform well in the regular season. But, even more importantly, they need players who rise to the occasion in the playoffs. So let’s look at the playoff performances of these two potential Penguins.
Paul Kariya
He averages 1.05 points per game in the regular season, 0.85 points per game in the playoffs. But given that playoff scoring drops by about 14 percent, Kariya’s “expected” output in the playoffs would be 0.91 points per game. In his 46 career playoff games, he has had 39 points. His “expected” output is 42 points. So, yes, he does experience a slight dropoff, but nothing real huge.
Bill Guerin
In fact, Kariya’s postseason falloff is peanuts compared to another guy the Pens might have interest in—Bill Guerin. Using the same method, one would expect that Guerin would have netted about 63 points in his 105 playoff games. Instead, he put up only 50. So, if you want to talk about a guy who disappears in the playoffs, start the conversation with Bill Guerin, not Paul Kariya.
So looking at postseason performance compared to regular season, it’s obvious that Kariya would be the better signing for the Pens. If you don’t believe me, just ask Ron Wilson.
Comments
KG
Jun 29, 10:19 AM
I don’t think there’s any question. Kariya is by far the better player. Guerin is a nice player, but Kariya is on another level. That being said, since he is on another level, his salary will be much more then Guerin.
2 years $10MM for Kariya I would offer.
Matt Bodenschatz
Jun 29, 10:40 AM
Kariya, on the other hand, is known to take less money to play on legitimate teams, though, KG. I’m not saying he will do the same wherever this summer, but I am saying that Guerin seems to be the type that seeks money, while Kariya seems to be the type that seeks a good situation — also another reason why Kariya would be a better signing for someone.
Thanks for the comment!
Eric
Jun 29, 10:48 AM
I think both players would be good additions. But, I wonder if the Penguins will have the financial ability to enter the 2nd tier race for forwards who aren’t named Smyth, Drury, Briere, Forsberg or Gomez.
If I had to pick between the two, I would probably pick Kariya. His regular season success has been a little bit better than Guerin’s over the past few seasons.
Ladislav Nagy seems like a potential option, given his adequate production over the past 4 years.
Dainius Zubrus, Petr Sykora and Slava Kozlov seem to also be 2nd tier forwards who the Penguins could afford to look at. I’d really be surprised if they got any one of these players, but excited. As much talk of there being them needing a forward, I can also see them addressing the defensive issue first. Just a hunch.
Matt Bodenschatz
Jun 29, 11:31 AM
Defense is a must. Shero is going to pursue defense first, without a doubt. But, that doesn’t mean a name offensive player won’t be added as well. Kariya is a possibility, but I’d say your list of Zubrus, Sykora, Kozlov and Nagy is a more likely pool of players who might attract the interest of the Penguins.
Put it this way, I’ll be surprised if Shero doesn’t land a top-line capable player — not necessarily a superstar, but someone who has good numbers that would be inflated by playing alongside Crosby.
Mike Adams
Jun 29, 11:36 AM
Eric, thanks for the great comments. I think this discussion is kind of all for fun, because I don’t see the Pens being in the market for this type of winger. Okay, let me amend that. They are in the market, but I doubt this is where they will throw their money. The top priority, by far, is upgrading the defense. If I have to go through another season of Scuderi, Melichar, and Nasreddine imitating NHL players, I might just lose it. They need a minimum of two new defensemen, and they need to allocate the cash to do that. if, after that, there is money for a good winger, fine. But I doubt there will be.
KG
Jun 29, 11:42 AM
I am a little concerned that Shero won’t add a top 6 forward this off season. I remember reading even when they didn’t qualify Ouellet that Shero was pleased with his forward group. And defense is his main concern.
I agree that defense is his main concern. But I think there is a pressing need for a goal scoring wing. I would love Kariya obviously, but like Eric posted there are a ton of wing options available that would be less expensive…
Mike Adams
Jun 29, 12:01 PM
Ladislav Nagy???? It would shock me if the Pens had any interest in him. he is most certainly not a Shero type of player. Throw in his injury issues that make him risky, and I say the Pens don’t even talk to him.
Eric
Jun 29, 12:12 PM
Mike, I agree that Nagy does have injury concerns. However, he is almost a point per game player otherwise. As well as his ability to play well, at times, on a teams’ top 2 lines with quality talent. I do think Nagy will be looking for more money than he’s worth (which should be the ongoing motto for the NHL Free Agency period).
There is some talent out there available on the wings. But like most of you stated earlier, defense should be the first completed task. I agree with Mike that if there is enough money left over, and it makes hockey and financial sense to do so, then the Penguins should consider a forward.
Matt Bodenschatz
Jun 29, 12:16 PM
KG, one thing to remember is that the Penguins’ offense ranked in the top five (I believe) in the NHL last year and the PP ranked similarly. This is not a team slouching in the offensive department. Granted, a lot of the offense was generated by Crosby and Malkin, but it was there, none-the-less. If improving the less-than-average defense means holding off on adding a top-line winger, I’m fine with that. Offense isn’t everything, and defense certainly is an area that needs drastic improvement.
Mike, Nagy likely isn’t going to hit Shero’s radar unless, of course, he happens to miss everyone else’s and his asking price drops significantly. He may not be the best all-around forward out there, but his offense is dynamic, and he has put up solid numbers while playing for a pretty poor Phoenix team with no elite-level offensive players. I wouldn’t be opposed to the signing if he was on a line with Crosby and someone like, say, Armstrong, who would provide the physical and defensive aspects.
Mike Adams
Jun 29, 01:04 PM
How do these numbers strike you?
Games: 18
Goals: 2
Assists: 2
Those are Ladislav Nagy’s playoff stats. He is a soft lazy floater who Shero should stay far, far away from.
Eric
Jun 29, 01:05 PM
Well Mike, at least he’d fit in with the rest of the team. :)
Matt Bodenschatz
Jun 29, 02:51 PM
Those are numbers you can’t deny. You’ve changed my mind Mike!
DaBich
Jun 29, 02:59 PM
KARIYA!!! Hands down!
Eric
Jun 29, 07:34 PM
If I were a politician trying to spin those stats in favor of Nagy I would do so by stating that his first stint in the NHL Playoffs was with the 1999-2000 Blues. Where he was likely a late season call up, put onto the teams 3rd or 4th line. Played in 6 games, recorded a goal and a helper.
His 2nd stint was with the Phoenix Coyotes, in which the team was bounced in 5 games. Didn’t put up a single number, points wise. But neither did the rest of his team.
His 3rd, and most recent visit to the post-season was with Dallas after being traded there a few games prior to the trade deadline. Never got going in Dallas due to their defensive system (a style foreign to his offensive mind). Was hindered by the lack of chemistry amongst him and his linemates. Played in 7 games, adding a goal and an assist.
Nothing special from Nagy, not ever good by a long shot. But his playoff experience is still small. He did beat the injury bug last season, by playing in 80 games. However, if it’s playoff experience a team is looking for, Nagy is one hell of a gamble.
BTW, I’m neither pro or con for him coming to Pittsburgh. I think he’s out of the price range for a forward to play with this team. I was merely stating his name as an option.
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