FF Staff Stanley Cup Finals Predictions
Matt Bodenschatz | Faceoff Factor News
May 20, 09:14 AM | Hype this story!
| Writer | Winner | Prediction | Conn Smythe |
| Adams | Red Wings | 4-3 | Zetterberg (LW, Det) |
| Bodenschatz | Penguins | 4-2 | Fleury (G, Pit) |
| Chiappazzi | Penguins | 4-3 | Fleury (G, Pit) |
| Condiotte | Penguins | 4-1 | Fleury (G, Pit) |
| Dreibelbies | Penguins | 4-3 | Fleury (G, Pit) |
| Farkas | Red Wings | 4-2 | Lidstrom (D, Det) |
| Farzalo | Penguins | 4-2 | Fleury (G, Pit) |
| Gallant | Red Wings | 4-2 | Lidstrom (D, Det) |
| Jennings | Penguins | 4-2 | Malkin (C, Pit) |
| Jiuliante | Penguins | 4-2 | Malkin (C, Pit) |
| Maffei | Penguins | 4-3 | Fleury (G, Pit) |
| Marshall | Penguins | 4-3 | Fleury (G, Pit) |
| Politowski | Penguins | 4-3 | Hossa (RW, Pit) |
| Schmidt | Penguins | 4-3 | Fleury (G, Pit) |
| Wilson | Penguins | 4-2 | Fleury (G, Pit) |
The Stanley Cup Finals will count as three categories, as writers will pick the winner, the series score, and the playoff MVP. |
| Standings | Western | Eastern | Total | Points |
| Gallant | 5-2 | 6-1 | 11-3 | 22 |
| Adams | 5-2 | 5-2 | 10-4 | 20 |
| Chiappazzi | 5-2 | 5-2 | 10-4 | 20 |
| Jennings | 5-2 | 5-2 | 10-4 | 20 |
| Maffei | 5-2 | 5-2 | 10-4 | 20 |
| Schmidt | 4-3 | 6-1 | 10-4 | 20 |
| Farkas | 5-2 | 4-3 | 9-5 | 18 |
| Farzalo | 5-2 | 4-3 | 9-5 | 18 |
| Marshall | 4-3 | 5-2 | 9-5 | 18 |
| Condiotte | 3-4 | 5-2 | 8-6 | 16 |
| Dreibelbies | 2-5 | 6-1 | 8-6 | 16 |
| Wilson | 4-3 | 4-3 | 8-6 | 16 |
| Bodenschatz | 2-5 | 5-2 | 7-7 | 14 |
| Jiuliante | 1-6 | 5-2 | 6-8 | 12 |
| Politowski* | 1-2 | 2-1 | 3-3 | 6 |
* Eric Politowski joined the FF staff after the conclusion of the first round of the playoffs. |
| Round one predictions can be found
here. Round two predictions can be found here. Round three predictions can be found here. |
Comments
DaBich
May 20, 09:45 AM
Dangit Ashley, you’re jinxing us! ;)
Ashley Gallant
May 20, 10:46 AM
haha sorry Dabich, it’s just this weird feeling I have. I’ve been thinking about this for a week and it’s just what my gut is telling me. I hope I’m wrong.
DaBich
May 20, 01:28 PM
I hope so too! lol
Tom
May 20, 02:16 PM
Ashley, Mike, The wings are old, tired and cannot beat the trap with any regularity (see Wings’ playoff loss to Ducks a year ago). A hard, fast physical game, playing the trap against their top line and, if in the lead, against the entire team will defeat the Wings. A devotion to a hard, fast game with aggressive disruption of the neutral zone are the keys to a Pens’ cup.
Matt Bodenschatz
May 20, 02:52 PM
Tom, I agree that the keys to winning are aggression, speed and physicality, but using an example from a year ago to prove a point about this year is not valid. By that logic, the Penguins should have been eliminated long ago, since last year they had no intensity.
Additionally, don’t underestimate the Wings. They aren’t nearly as old as people want to believe. Like the Rangers (who also were labeled old) the Wings have a mixture of veterans and young players, but the majority of key contributors are quite young (Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, Kronvall, Hudler, etc). Chelios, Draper, Maltby, and Drake may be old, but they don’t play as big of roles on this team as the young players.
Again, I believe the Penguins will take this series through their desire and passion — but it will be far from a walk in the park.
Eric
May 22, 06:36 PM
Pens in 6. Finally a cup presentation at home.
Tom, the Wings speed should not be overlooked. I don’t know if I’ve seen a team with more odd-man-rushes than them, which they have a strong success rate on. They are an equally dangerous team as the Penguins.
Ashley, may you be wrong – for once.
Tom
May 22, 08:38 PM
Matt and Ashley, The Wings’ great stats result from eight games against Chicago, St.Louis and Columbus in their division and is deceptive. They are old. Chelios, Maltby, Draper and Drake are not their only senior citizens. Osgood, Rafalski, Lidstrom, McCarty and Holmstrom also qualify. They are tired and ready to be beaten by a young, hard hitting, aggressive and fast team. Wear them down, hit them and force them to play a fast and constantly tiring game and the cup is the Pens’.
Matt Bodenschatz
May 22, 09:36 PM
Tom, again, I don’t disagree that the Penguins will win. Heck, I picked them in six. But the players you cite (for the most part) are the supporting cast, not the primary focus. Yes, Lidstrom and Osgood are nearing the end of their careers, but calling Rafalski old would then mean you have to call Gonchar, Laraque, Ruutu, Gill, Conklin and Sykora old.
The majority of Detroit’s primary players — Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, Filppula, Cleary, Stuartm Kronvall, Lebda — are in their prime or younger. Their third and fourth lines are significantly older, true, but they also don’t play as much as the Penguins’ third and fourth lines.
Detroit thrives on a quick-tempo transition game. I really, strongly doubt the Penguins will wear them out with speed. Physicality? Maybe. Speed. Not likely. And, I’m going to be 100% honest when I say I saw no exhaustion from Detroit in the playoffs thus far. They lost two games, yes, but they also were playing a formidable opponent that wouldn’t just go away.
Lastly, bringing up the regular season games agains Chicago, St. Louis and Columbus is as irrelevant as brining up the Penguins’ winning streak to start the year. The regular season means absolutely nothing now. The Red Wings aren’t in the Stanley Cup Finals because of a weak division. They’re in the Stanley Cup Finals because they kicked butt (and have lost just 4 times) in the first three rounds of the playoffs.
Penguins in six, but it will be far from a cakewalk.
Ashley Gallant
May 22, 11:50 PM
When predicting a winner, I truly believe that you could make a valid argument for either team. These are the two best teams in the NHL, regardless of age.
I thought about this matchup for a week before making my prediction. I would love to say that I believe without a shadow of a doubt that the Penguins will win the Cup, but I am not 100% convinced. I think that Detroit has a bit of an edge and I hope I am wrong, but that’s just my gut feeling.
Detroit is a fast, skilled, puck possession team and I do not see them slowing down in the Finals.
Sure, we all talk about the offense in these Finals. Malkin, Crosby, Hossa, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, and so on and so forth, but I really think that the key is defence.
While I believe that Pittsburgh’s defence is underrated, I think that Detroit has the edge on the blue line. Lidstrom and Rafalski are the first pair and will see either Malkin or Crosby’s line, or hey, maybe some of both. Kronwall and Stuart are the second pairing and will be in charge of shutting down whichever Penguins top line Lidstrom/Rafalski doesn’t see. They will also add offense (Kronwall leads all defencemen in points) and will hit the Penguins…hard.
Detroit has managed to keep the SOG to about 20 or 21 for Chris Osgood, who has been phenomenal since replacing Dominik Hasek. If Pittsburgh can break through Detroit’s defence and start to pepper Osgood with shots, then I guess we’ll see how he responds to a tougher workload. Heck, maybe he won’t be able to handle 30 shots every game, but I really don’t think his defence will allow the Pens to walk in and do that.
This will be Pittsburgh’s toughest test so far because they have yet to face a really solid defence. Ottawa was a mess, New York was relatively inexperienced, and Philly was missing their top 2 d-men for most of the series. Detroit is healthy, experienced, and good…very good.
There is a lot of talk about age in this series – the old vs. the young. Many of Detroit’s players are 30+, while most of Pittsburgh’s players are under 30. Detroit also has something like 24 Stanley Cup rings on its roster, compared to Pittsburgh’s three. Experience means a lot, and Detroit has the experience in winning, and they also have experience in losing. They know what it feels like to be upset by the 8th seed (‘06), and to be ousted in the Conference Finals (‘07), which can ignite a fire within that will make them harder to handle. Zetterberg and Datsyuk want to prove themselves as winners, so I wouldn’t underestimate their will to succeed.
So far this has sounded like I believe Detroit has the clear advantage over the Pens, but I don’t think they do. The Penguins have overcome a lot of adversity this season and something just seems right, and they could certainly pull off a Cup victory. Just because a young Oilers team in the 1980’s was swept by the experienced Islanders does not mean that this young Penguins team will be dominated by the Red Wings. The top two lines for Pittsburgh could prove to be too much for Detroit’s defence and they could fill up the net behind Osgood. Maybe Pittsburgh’s defence will completely shut down Datsyuk/Zetterberg and Detroit’s secondary scoring won’t be able to keep up with the Penguins.
There are so many variables here, so many unknowns, and I think that these two teams are largely equal in most respects. The glaring difference is experience, with a bit of an edge in defence for the Red Wings, which is why I decided to side with Detroit.
I hope I’m wrong. I hope Pittsburgh wins, and I hope Marc-Andre Fleury wins the Conn Smythe.
Tom
May 23, 03:56 PM
Matt and Ashley,
WHY THE PENS WILL DOMINATE THE WINGS.
The Wings average five years older than the Pens. Senior citizens include Lidstrom (38), Drake (39), Draper (36), Holmstrom (35), Maltby (35), McCarty (36), Chelios (46), Rafalski (34), Hasek (43) and Osgood (35). The Pens senior citizens include Sydor (36), Gonchar (34) and Roberts (41). All of the Wings’ senior citizens start except Hasek and Maltby. Only Gonchar and at times Roberts start for the Pens. Therefore, the Wings are an older team by far and many of their most important players are aging (Osgood, Lidstrom, Holmstrom, Rafalski and McCarty).
The Wings are smaller by an average of ten pounds per player. With the exception of Kronwall, they are not a physical team. They rely upon their vaunted, but not realistic against the Pens, speed advantage.
Speed, skating: Letang, Staal, Crosby, Malkin, Hossa, Dupuis, Kennedy, and Gonchar are all extremely fast skaters and unmatched by the Wings’ fastest skaters. The Pens are a young, healthy and swift club. The Wings have fast skaters, but they barely outlasted the Preds, beat the sorry (due to injuries and health problems) Avs, and got all they could handle from the Stars.
Experience is the sole advantage the Wings have, and that has now been overcome with a Pens’ 12 to 2 record in this year’s playoffs. Does anyone believe, for example, that Zetterberg’s speed will overcome Gonchar or Letang or that Gill, Orpik or Letang will allow Holmstrom to own the crease in front of Flower as he did to Turco. When does experience cease and old age take over?
Stats are claimed for Wing supporters, but as I pointed out the Pens played a far more difficult division schedule (three playoff teams besides the Pens) than the Wing’s cakewalk through Chicago, St.Louis, Columbus and Nashville (one playoff team besides the Wings. Stats are never adjusted to reflect the team’s opponent’s abilities when those stats are run up.
The Wings have not played well against aggressive, trapping defense minded teams (e.g. Ducks). They have been barey been a .500 team during the second half of the season.
The Pens’ offensive attack is incomparable. The Wings have no answer for Crosby, Malkin, Hossa, Malone, Sykora, Staal, Dupuis, Laraque, Gonchar, Letang and Whitney.
Finally, as pointed out by Scotty Bowman, the Pens’ defensive prowess began when the kid, Letang, began playing for the team. He has skills not been recognized to date. It is when paired with Letang that Whitney, Gill and, earlier, Orpik began to shine. Others have come and shone playing for the Pens, but only since Letang has been playing for the Pens have they flourished as a defensive team, according to Bowman.
Finally, the worship of Lidstrom as super defender is silly. He is not the finest defender in the NHL. That honor goes to Chris Pronger. Lidstrom may be better offensively, but Pronger and his clone Letang excell defensively. Watch Letang demonstrate, under Lidstrom’s eyes, that he is an elite player. Philadelphia scored no goals while Letang was on the ice in the entire series.
If the Pens play a fast paced, hard hitting aggressive, physical game and play the trap against the Wings’ top line, they will win. Remember, the third period belongs to the young, fast, aggressive players, not older slower, tired, hurting, playoff weary big names.
Tom
May 24, 05:04 PM
Everyone
WHY THE PENS WILL DOMINATE THE WINGS.
The Wings average five years older than the Pens. Senior citizens include Lidstrom (38), Drake (39), Draper (36), Holmstrom (35), Maltby (35), McCarty (36), Chelios (46), Rafalski (34), Hasek (43) and Osgood (35). The Pens senior citizens include Sydor (36), Gonchar (34) and Roberts (41). All of the Wings’ senior citizens start except Hasek and Maltby. Only Gonchar and at times Roberts start for the Pens. Therefore, the Wings are an older team by far and many of their most important players are aging (Osgood, Lidstrom, Holmstrom, Rafalski and McCarty).
The Wings are smaller by an average of ten pounds per player. With the exception of Kronwall, they are not a physical team. They rely upon their vaunted, but not realistic against the Pens, speed advantage.
Speed, skating: Letang, Staal, Crosby, Malkin, Hossa, Dupuis, Kennedy, Talbot and Gonchar are all extremely fast skaters and unmatched by the Wings’ fastest skaters. The Pens are a young, healthy and swift club. The Wings have fast skaters, but they barely outlasted the Preds, beat the sorry (due to injuries and health problems) Avs, and got all they could handle from the Stars.
Experience, about which I agree with Matt, is the sole advantage the Wings have, and that has now been overcome with a Pens’ 12 to 2 record in this year’s playoffs. It’s what have you done lately” Does anyone believe, for example, that Zetterberg’s speed will overcome Gonchar or Letang or that Gill, Orpik or Letang will allow Holmstrom, Draper or Frazen (if he plays) to own the crease in front of Flower as they did to Turco. When does experience cease and old age take over?
Stats are claimed for Wing supporters, but as I previously pointed out the Pens played a far more difficult division schedule (three playoff teams besides the Pens) than the Wing’s cakewalk through Chicago, St.Louis, Columbus and Nashville (one playoff team besides the Wings). Stats are never adjusted to reflect the team’s opponent’s abilities when those stats are run up.
The Wings have not played well against aggressive, trapping defense minded teams (e.g. Ducks). They have barely been a .500 team during the second half of the season.
The Pens’ offensive attack is incomparable. The Wings have no answer for Crosby, Malkin, Hossa, Malone, Sykora, Staal, Dupuis, Laraque, Gonchar, Letang and Whitney. The Wings have only one outstanding line.
Finally, as pointed out by Scotty Bowman, the Pens’ defensive prowess began when the kid, Letang, began playing for the team. He has skills not been recognized to date. It is when paired with Letang that Whitney, Gill and, earlier, Orpik began to shine. Others have come and shone playing for the Pens, but only since Letang, an underrated player, has been playing for the Pens have they flourished as a defensive team, according to Bowman.
Finally, the worship of Lidstrom as super defender is silly. He is not the finest defender in the NHL. That honor goes to Chris Pronger. Lidstrom may be better offensively, but Pronger and his clone Letang, excell defensively. Watch Letang demonstrate, under Lidstrom’s eyes, that he is an elite player. Philadelphia scored no goals while Letang was on the ice in the entire series.
If the Pens play a fast paced, hard hitting aggressive, physical game and play the trap against the Wings’ top line, they will win regardless of matchups. Remember, the third period belongs to the young, fast, aggressive players, not older slower, tired, hurting, playoff weary big names.
PENS IN FOUR.
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