FF Staff Stanley Cup Finals Predictions
Matt Bodenschatz | Faceoff Factor News
May 20, 11:14 AM | Hype this story!
| Writer | Winner | Prediction | Conn Smythe |
| Adams | Red Wings | 4-3 | Zetterberg (LW, Det) |
| Bodenschatz | Penguins | 4-2 | Fleury (G, Pit) |
| Chiappazzi | Penguins | 4-3 | Fleury (G, Pit) |
| Condiotte | Penguins | 4-1 | Fleury (G, Pit) |
| Dreibelbies | Penguins | 4-3 | Fleury (G, Pit) |
| Farkas | Red Wings | 4-2 | Lidstrom (D, Det) |
| Farzalo | Penguins | 4-2 | Fleury (G, Pit) |
| Gallant | Red Wings | 4-2 | Lidstrom (D, Det) |
| Jennings | Penguins | 4-2 | Malkin (C, Pit) |
| Jiuliante | Penguins | 4-2 | Malkin (C, Pit) |
| Maffei | Penguins | 4-3 | Fleury (G, Pit) |
| Marshall | Penguins | 4-3 | Fleury (G, Pit) |
| Politowski | Penguins | 4-3 | Hossa (RW, Pit) |
| Schmidt | Penguins | 4-3 | Fleury (G, Pit) |
| Wilson | Penguins | 4-2 | Fleury (G, Pit) |
The Stanley Cup Finals will count as three categories, as writers will pick the winner, the series score, and the playoff MVP. |
| Standings | Western | Eastern | Total | Points |
| Gallant | 5-2 | 6-1 | 11-3 | 22 |
| Adams | 5-2 | 5-2 | 10-4 | 20 |
| Chiappazzi | 5-2 | 5-2 | 10-4 | 20 |
| Jennings | 5-2 | 5-2 | 10-4 | 20 |
| Maffei | 5-2 | 5-2 | 10-4 | 20 |
| Schmidt | 4-3 | 6-1 | 10-4 | 20 |
| Farkas | 5-2 | 4-3 | 9-5 | 18 |
| Farzalo | 5-2 | 4-3 | 9-5 | 18 |
| Marshall | 4-3 | 5-2 | 9-5 | 18 |
| Condiotte | 3-4 | 5-2 | 8-6 | 16 |
| Dreibelbies | 2-5 | 6-1 | 8-6 | 16 |
| Wilson | 4-3 | 4-3 | 8-6 | 16 |
| Bodenschatz | 2-5 | 5-2 | 7-7 | 14 |
| Jiuliante | 1-6 | 5-2 | 6-8 | 12 |
| Politowski* | 1-2 | 2-1 | 3-3 | 6 |
* Eric Politowski joined the FF staff after the conclusion of the first round of the playoffs. |
| Round one predictions can be found
here. Round two predictions can be found here. Round three predictions can be found here. |
Comments
DaBich
May 20, 11:45 AM
Dangit Ashley, you’re jinxing us! ;)
Ashley Gallant
May 20, 12:46 PM
haha sorry Dabich, it’s just this weird feeling I have. I’ve been thinking about this for a week and it’s just what my gut is telling me. I hope I’m wrong.
DaBich
May 20, 03:28 PM
I hope so too! lol
Matt Bodenschatz
May 20, 04:52 PM
Tom, I agree that the keys to winning are aggression, speed and physicality, but using an example from a year ago to prove a point about this year is not valid. By that logic, the Penguins should have been eliminated long ago, since last year they had no intensity.
Additionally, don’t underestimate the Wings. They aren’t nearly as old as people want to believe. Like the Rangers (who also were labeled old) the Wings have a mixture of veterans and young players, but the majority of key contributors are quite young (Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, Kronvall, Hudler, etc). Chelios, Draper, Maltby, and Drake may be old, but they don’t play as big of roles on this team as the young players.
Again, I believe the Penguins will take this series through their desire and passion — but it will be far from a walk in the park.
Eric
May 22, 08:36 PM
Pens in 6. Finally a cup presentation at home.
Tom, the Wings speed should not be overlooked. I don’t know if I’ve seen a team with more odd-man-rushes than them, which they have a strong success rate on. They are an equally dangerous team as the Penguins.
Ashley, may you be wrong – for once.
Matt Bodenschatz
May 22, 11:36 PM
Tom, again, I don’t disagree that the Penguins will win. Heck, I picked them in six. But the players you cite (for the most part) are the supporting cast, not the primary focus. Yes, Lidstrom and Osgood are nearing the end of their careers, but calling Rafalski old would then mean you have to call Gonchar, Laraque, Ruutu, Gill, Conklin and Sykora old.
The majority of Detroit’s primary players — Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, Filppula, Cleary, Stuartm Kronvall, Lebda — are in their prime or younger. Their third and fourth lines are significantly older, true, but they also don’t play as much as the Penguins’ third and fourth lines.
Detroit thrives on a quick-tempo transition game. I really, strongly doubt the Penguins will wear them out with speed. Physicality? Maybe. Speed. Not likely. And, I’m going to be 100% honest when I say I saw no exhaustion from Detroit in the playoffs thus far. They lost two games, yes, but they also were playing a formidable opponent that wouldn’t just go away.
Lastly, bringing up the regular season games agains Chicago, St. Louis and Columbus is as irrelevant as brining up the Penguins’ winning streak to start the year. The regular season means absolutely nothing now. The Red Wings aren’t in the Stanley Cup Finals because of a weak division. They’re in the Stanley Cup Finals because they kicked butt (and have lost just 4 times) in the first three rounds of the playoffs.
Penguins in six, but it will be far from a cakewalk.
Ashley Gallant
May 23, 01:50 AM
When predicting a winner, I truly believe that you could make a valid argument for either team. These are the two best teams in the NHL, regardless of age.
I thought about this matchup for a week before making my prediction. I would love to say that I believe without a shadow of a doubt that the Penguins will win the Cup, but I am not 100% convinced. I think that Detroit has a bit of an edge and I hope I am wrong, but that’s just my gut feeling.
Detroit is a fast, skilled, puck possession team and I do not see them slowing down in the Finals.
Sure, we all talk about the offense in these Finals. Malkin, Crosby, Hossa, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, and so on and so forth, but I really think that the key is defence.
While I believe that Pittsburgh’s defence is underrated, I think that Detroit has the edge on the blue line. Lidstrom and Rafalski are the first pair and will see either Malkin or Crosby’s line, or hey, maybe some of both. Kronwall and Stuart are the second pairing and will be in charge of shutting down whichever Penguins top line Lidstrom/Rafalski doesn’t see. They will also add offense (Kronwall leads all defencemen in points) and will hit the Penguins…hard.
Detroit has managed to keep the SOG to about 20 or 21 for Chris Osgood, who has been phenomenal since replacing Dominik Hasek. If Pittsburgh can break through Detroit’s defence and start to pepper Osgood with shots, then I guess we’ll see how he responds to a tougher workload. Heck, maybe he won’t be able to handle 30 shots every game, but I really don’t think his defence will allow the Pens to walk in and do that.
This will be Pittsburgh’s toughest test so far because they have yet to face a really solid defence. Ottawa was a mess, New York was relatively inexperienced, and Philly was missing their top 2 d-men for most of the series. Detroit is healthy, experienced, and good…very good.
There is a lot of talk about age in this series – the old vs. the young. Many of Detroit’s players are 30+, while most of Pittsburgh’s players are under 30. Detroit also has something like 24 Stanley Cup rings on its roster, compared to Pittsburgh’s three. Experience means a lot, and Detroit has the experience in winning, and they also have experience in losing. They know what it feels like to be upset by the 8th seed (‘06), and to be ousted in the Conference Finals (‘07), which can ignite a fire within that will make them harder to handle. Zetterberg and Datsyuk want to prove themselves as winners, so I wouldn’t underestimate their will to succeed.
So far this has sounded like I believe Detroit has the clear advantage over the Pens, but I don’t think they do. The Penguins have overcome a lot of adversity this season and something just seems right, and they could certainly pull off a Cup victory. Just because a young Oilers team in the 1980’s was swept by the experienced Islanders does not mean that this young Penguins team will be dominated by the Red Wings. The top two lines for Pittsburgh could prove to be too much for Detroit’s defence and they could fill up the net behind Osgood. Maybe Pittsburgh’s defence will completely shut down Datsyuk/Zetterberg and Detroit’s secondary scoring won’t be able to keep up with the Penguins.
There are so many variables here, so many unknowns, and I think that these two teams are largely equal in most respects. The glaring difference is experience, with a bit of an edge in defence for the Red Wings, which is why I decided to side with Detroit.
I hope I’m wrong. I hope Pittsburgh wins, and I hope Marc-Andre Fleury wins the Conn Smythe.
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